1. Projecting Louisiana’s Future: Population Trends for Louisiana Parishes, 2010-2030 Dr. Troy C. Blanchard Department of Sociology Louisiana State University

2. Acknowledgement: This work is a product of a collaborative effort between LSU and the State of Louisiana to provide a variety of agencies and organizations at the state and local level with timely demographic data on our state.

3. Background Information • What are population projections and who uses them? • Who projects populations and how is it accomplished? • How do we interpret a population projection? • What are the important findings from the 2010-2030 population projections? • What new trends are emerging that may require additional research?

4. What are population projections and who uses them? • A population projection is a simulation of what a population will look like at some point in the future based on a set of assumptions. • Projections are used by a wide variety of entities: • Organizations serving the elderly (Healthcare, Councils on Aging) use projections to identify areas with a fast growing elderly population. • Businesses use projections to identify a particular customer base. • Economic development groups use projections to identify the demand for jobs.

5. Who projects populations? • U.S. Census Bureau calculates population projections for the U.S. and individual states. • Sub-state projections are not a part of the U.S. Census Bureau mission: • Parishes • Cities/Towns/Villages • School Districts • Most states develop some type of projection effort to inform policy makers. • Louisiana: Department of Administration, Office of Electronic Services, Louisiana State Data Center

6. How is a population projected? Calculate number of deaths Population at Time 1 Calculate number of births Population at Time 2 Calculate net migration (inmigrants-outmigrants)

7. How is a population projected? • Use past trends to predict future. • Why past trends? • Fertility and mortality patterns generally stable. • Migration is the least stable of the three components that influence population size, so we use long term trends (5 or 10 year averages). • Migration varies due to a wide variety of issues and is difficult to predict: • Job opportunities • Quality of education • Housing stock • Access to natural amenities • Family, social, and cultural pulls

8. How do we interpret a population projection? Example… The state of Louisiana is projected to grow by 107,920 persons between 2010 and 2015. • Caveat #1: If recent fertility, mortality, and migration trends remain the same, this will be the outcome. • Caveat #2: Not set in stone, if something happens that changes the migration, fertility, or mortality rates, the outcome will change.

9. Parish Population Growth 2010-2020

10. Key Points • A large share of South Louisiana Parishes are growing. • I-10/I-12 Corridor Metropolitan Areas • Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans • Growth in North Louisiana Parishes is concentrated. • Shreveport Metropolitan Areas • Alexandria Metropolitan Areas

11. Parishes Projected to Gain Population, 2010-2020

12. Key Points • Top growth parishes: • Livingston (BR Metro) • St. Tammany (NO Metro) • Ascension (BR Metro) • St. John (NO Metro) • Plaquemines (NO Metro) • Bossier (Shreveport Metro) • DeSoto (Shreveport Metro)

13. Parish Projected to Lose Population, 2010-2020

14. Key Points • Top growth parishes: • Madison (Tallulah Micropolitan Area-Delta Region) • Tensas (Rural-Delta Region) • East Carroll (Rural-Delta Region) • Winn (Rural-Central LA) • Concordia (Natchez, MS-LA Micropolitan Area-Delta Region) • Vernon (Fort Polk/DeRidder Micropolitan Area-Central LA) • Catahoula (Rural-Central LA)

15. Metropolitan Area Trends

16. New Trends to Consider: • Emerging population trend for Louisiana is the growing Hispanic population. • Grew by 4.83% from 2007-2008. • Nonhispanic Whites-.14% • Nonhispanic Black-1.64% • Growth occurring in both fast and slow growth areas: • The Lake Charles Metro leads the state with 7.7% growth in Hispanic, but is not a fast growing metro (<1% between 2007 and 2008).

17. Percent Growth in Hispanic Population for LA Metropolitan Areas

18. Top 20 Parishes for Percent Hispanic Population Growth

19. Thank You!For More Information:Dr. Troy C. BlanchardDepartment of SociologyLouisiana State University126 Stubbs HallBaton Rouge, LA 70803troy@lsu.edu(225) 578-5123