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Quantifying Policy Incentives: Ex-post Rewards System Analysis

This study analyzes the incentive effect on policy change in an ex-post rewards system for the Millennium Challenge Corporation. The research conducted by Ingrid Aune, Yanyan Chen, Christina Miller, and Joshua Williams in Spring 2013 evaluates indicators, treatment groups, government expenditures, and overall impact. The authors present statistically significant results in economic freedom, investing in people, and ruling justly, offering recommendations to the MCC based on their conclusions.

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Quantifying Policy Incentives: Ex-post Rewards System Analysis

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  1. The MCC Incentive EffectQuantifying Incentives for Policy Change in an Ex-post Rewards System Prepared for the Millennium Challenge Corporation by : Ingrid Aune Yanyan Chen Christina Miller Joshua Williams -- Spring 2013 --

  2. The Team and the Outline Ingrid Aune Christina Miller Joshua Williams Yanyan Chen

  3. Previous Quantitative Studies

  4. Data

  5. Source: Authors’ Calculations Indicator Mobility Top 10 Rank Change

  6. Correlation between Indicators Size is proportional to Correlation Critical Value = 0.3

  7. Correlation between Indicators (continued) Size is proportional to Correlation Critical Value = 0.3

  8. Plausible Conjectures of Treatment Groups

  9. Preliminary Analysis: Locally weighted scatter plot smooth (LOWESS) Treatment: Close to Passing or Failing Positive MCC Incentive Effect

  10. Preliminary Analysis: LOWESS (continued) Treatment: Qualitative MCC Incentive Effect Neutral/Mixed MCC Incentive Effect

  11. Preliminary Analysis: LOWESS (continued) Treatment: Middle Range Government Expenditures Negative MCC Incentive Effect

  12. Difference-in-Differences

  13. All Results: 38 (+) and 31 (-) Overview of General Model Results

  14. Select Statistically Significant Results: Economic Freedom

  15. Investing in People

  16. Ruling Justly

  17. Number of Results in Economic Freedom (Breakdown)

  18. Number of Results in Investing in People

  19. Number of Results in Ruling Justly

  20. Number of Positive and Negative ResultsDifferent Time Periods Economic Freedom Investing in People Ruling Justly

  21. Conclusions and Recommendations

  22. Recommendation to the MCC

  23. Questions

  24. Acknowledgements

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