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Climate Briefing September 17, 2009

Climate Briefing September 17, 2009. Recent climate variability & impacts (What I did on my summer vacation) Forecasting West Africa seasonal rainfall Latest ENSO conditions and forecasts Latest IRI global seasonal forecasts. Photo Credit: Cornell University. T1R9, Maine.

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Climate Briefing September 17, 2009

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  1. Climate Briefing September 17, 2009 • Recent climate variability & impacts • (What I did on my summer vacation) • Forecasting West Africa seasonal • rainfall • Latest ENSO conditions and forecasts • Latest IRI global seasonal forecasts Photo Credit: Cornell University

  2. T1R9, Maine Located in Piscataquis County ------------- There were 843 people – total – living full time in the more than 50 unnamed townships in Piscataquis county in 2004. That’s a cozy average population of about 17 Humans per township. The average moose density is about 18 Moose/township...

  3. View of Mt. Katahdin from the lake shore at the Lyon Lodge… on a SUNNY summer day

  4. June 2009 – 14 consecutive days

  5. Millinocket, Maine Days with > 0.25mm PRCP Rain No Rain “Visit #1” “Visit #2” :- ( :- )

  6. From: Bangor Daily News 7/2/09

  7. June 2009 TEMP July 2009 TEMP June 2009 PRCP July 2009 PRCP

  8. June & July 2009 250hPa Height Anom (TOP), SST Anom (BOT.)

  9. Late Blight… in NY http://vegetablemdonline.ppath.cornell.edu/NewsArticles/LateBlightJune09.html

  10. Late Blight… in NY Cornell University College of Agriculture and Life Sciences http://www.longislandhort.cornell.edu/vegpath/photos/lateblight_tomato.htm

  11. Late Blight can also affect soils and tuber development Photo Credit: Cornell University http://www.hort.cornell.edu/department/Facilities/lihrec/vegpath/photos/lateblight_potato.htm

  12. Phytophthora infestans is an oomycete or water mold that causes the serious potato disease known as late blight or potato blight. It was a major culprit in the 1845 Irish and 1846 Highland potato famines. The organism can also infect tomatoes and some other members of the Solanaceae.

  13. Meteorological Conditions Favorable for Phytophthora infestans From Forsund (1983), EPPO Bulletin: Tmax 62°-75° F PRCP > 0.1 mm Tmin > 50° F RH > 75% Many other forecast models in use: Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression, etc. Note: An infestation in the previous year also increases the probability of an outbreak in year “t+1” (often used as a predictor in models). The “potato famine” in Ireland began in 1845 (⅓ to ½ of total crop lost); in 1846 crop lost estimated at > ¾. The lower crop yields resulted in fewer seed potatoes available in subsequent years.

  14. Millinocket, Maine Days Optimal for “Late Blight” (Phytophthora infestans) Tmax 62-75° F PRCP > 0.1 mm Tmin > 50° F RH* > 75% From Forsund (1983), EPPO Bulletin

  15. View of Mt. Katahdin from the lake shore at the Lyon Lodge… on a sunny SEPTEMBER day

  16. The End BTW: In 2003 Piscataquis County (home of T1R9) produced 80% of the world’s wooden golf tees...

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