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Decision support

Decision support. Gudmund Hernes IIEP/ UNESCO. Key task of IIEP: Capacity Building. Crucial deficit: differential capacity of countries to develop the talents of their people Hence the crucial importance of capacity building. Why Capacity Building.

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Decision support

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  1. Decision support Gudmund Hernes IIEP/ UNESCO

  2. Key task of IIEP: Capacity Building • Crucial deficit: differential capacity of countries to develop the talents of their people • Hence the crucial importance of capacity building

  3. Why Capacity Building • Birger Fredriksen: The main problem in development is implementation • Managing resources is as important as mobilizing them • How money is spent is as critical as the sum raised • Money without capacity to deliver will not work

  4. Capacity building A. Train planners and managers • skills to analyze, communicate, implement, evaluate B. Make institutions work • by administrative routines, organizational culture and leadership C. Help mould an enabling environment • so that the skills of managers and planners are fully utilized and results are improved

  5. Capacity building A. Individual: Change persons • Resides in persons: “Human capital” • If the person moves, skill lost • Problems: Turnover, brain drain B. Institutional: Change organizations • Resides in networks: “Social capital” • Based on Weber’s principles for rational bureaucracy: Impartial, written documents, separation of private/public, recruitment on merit • Standard operating procedures, program schedules, planning routines, budget cycles, control systems, audits practices • Problems: Red tape, tardiness, favoritism, nepotism, corruption C. Focus on capacity: individual skillsor institutional expertise

  6. The complementary factors • Skills and tools • Decision makers and decision support • Decision support : • tools that enhance the performance and effectiveness of decision makers with a given level of skills • does not make the decision, but provides a compact and comprehensive framework which facilitates decisions

  7. Simple examples of decision support • Spell check: suport  support • Metro map

  8. Can do without detailed knowledge! (Not taxi-driver)

  9. Simple examples of decision support • GPS

  10. Simple examples of decision support • Patient diagnostic and management – useful even for the best trained doctors and specialists • What results within normal range • (Cholest. Tot: 2,07 (N 1.40-2,40) • What alerts included • What questions to ask • Medicines and medical interactions • Follow-up

  11. Graphs from flow sheets synthesize and visually communicate trends Screen from PHR. Can you tell when the chemotherapy was given?

  12. Flow charts for laboratory panels This screen is from PHR, the personal health record that contains a fourteen panels and a builder for customized ones.

  13. Chart entry with custom checklists The Additional Comments by the doctor individualize the otherwise arbitrary selections. These comments are demonstrated in yellow highlight on the next slide.

  14. Decision support: Characteristics • Practice oriented • Relevant: Immediately applicable • Adaptable: Captures many situations: wide range of possible interest • Simple: compact, convenient format • Reliable: Documented, tested, supported • User friendly: accessible, integrated • Smaller demands on individuals • Provides updated, state of the art knowledge • Timely: Brings research results more quickly into practice • Reduces learning time • Reduces variations in quality

  15. Two main types: Briefs Templates

  16. Briefs • Short succinct statements – synthesis reports • condensation of new knowledge from research • distillation of practice • quick reference information • allows proactive measures • easy to update

  17. Fundamentals of Educational Planning: 80+

  18. Policy Booklets

  19. Policy Booklets HIV/AIDS Briefs

  20. Templates for action that can serve as basis or standard for later applications • Reduces • Search time • Acquisition time • Implementation time • Error • Tailored to skills to be found • Can be used by low capacity administrations • Can be used with resources at hand and time available • Prototypes that are • General, yet relevant • Simple and standardized • Comprehensive and sensitive • Applicable and adaptable

  21. IIEP Examples 1: SAMDEM:sample design manager • Sampling system for monitoring educational quality • Problems: Which students are to be selected for testing? • How do it in a way so that the level of error to be tolerated can be decided in advance: • If there are great variations among schools, it makes a big difference (trees and apples) • Provides a road map for decisions, keeps record or choices, keeps honest • From list of school and students provides those in the sample

  22. IIEP Examples cont. • Templates for building EMIS • Projection models: Impacts of HIV/AIDS • Budget frameworks • PETS: Public Expenditure Tracking Systems • Tool in fighting corruption • Legal frameworks

  23. Afghanistan: Who should decide on the basic structure of higher education ? No-one decides – pro et con: • Could get private establishments, many from abroad • Any institution can call itself a university or college with no legal obligations to students • Too many small institutions with little cooperation • Local maximization  inferior national system • No requirement for staff, students • Well funded institutions could drain staff from poorer • Mis-dimensioning of types of studies • No considered division of labor among institutions • In the present stage of development, problematic to leave such decisions to student demand or discretion of institutions

  24. 1.1. Who should decide on the basic structure of “higher education” ? • The team recommends that • Any institution that wishes to establish itself as a university or college to issue diplomas at the graduate or postgraduate level, must have the explicit consent of the Ministry of Higher Education • Private institutions are also bound by this rule. • Such a consent must be conditional on explicit account of sources of financing, qualification requirements for staff, requirements for admissions, system of exams leading to certificates of diplomas, quality control, etc. • Requirements to be fulfilled and process to be followed be made explicit in guidelines from the Ministry.

  25. From recommendation to (generic) law (cont.) • Every provider which meets the criteria shall be awarded a licence • The government licensing standard shall take account of the variety of teaching and learning methods employed by providers of higher education, related to the specified objectives of the provider, including provisions related to: • (a) Adequacy of buildings, equipment, teaching rooms and laboratories; • (b) Library and computing facilities; • (c) Number and qualifications of staff; • (d) Facilities for students; and • (e)  Basic curriculum. • (f)   Financial viability. • (g)  National need for the field in question. • 10.5 Additional requirements for licensing of private providers of higher education are as further prescribed in this Law.

  26. IIEP Examples cont. • Guidebook for Education in Emergencies • EDUTERM • Glossary of Educational Planning: • English, French, Spanish, Arabic, Dari

  27. IIEP examples, cont. • HIV/AIDS projection model: Impact on education system

  28. Without integrating the impact of HIV/AIDS 2003: current year 2014: targeted year Several variables on pupils Several variables on equipment Several variables on teachers Several variables on budget

  29. Integrating the impact of HIV/AIDS + HIV/AIDS impact on dropout + HIV/AIDS impact on teachers + HIV/AIDS impact on budget

  30. Gross enrolment rate 2004: 93.5% Gross enrolment rate 2014 93.9% Integrating the impact of HIV/AIDS WITHOUT Gross enrolment rate 2014: 91.7% WITH

  31. Integrating the impact of HIV/AIDS New Classrooms to be built: 173 WITHOUT WITH New Classrooms to be built: 108

  32. Integrating the impact of HIV/AIDS Teachers to be recruited in 2014 989 WITHOUT WITH Teachers to be recruited in 2014 1487

  33. Integrating the impact of HIV/AIDS WITHOUT Current expenditures in 2014 2 896 millions 93 millions or 3% of budget increase WITH Current expenditures in 2014 2 989 millions

  34. Commonality: Decision support • Vicarious experience • Easy to access • Simple to use • Provide guide – Intelligently filtered information • Increase productivity • Vicarious experience – reduce mistakes • Thought out - tested • Structured • Evidence informed - reduce search time

  35. Rationale • HIV/Aids is a long-wave epidemic. The epidemic and its impact will last for the foreseeable future. This makes it necessary for planners and managers to be conscious of the future impact and its implications in terms of demand (demographical impact on school-age population), supply (teachers attrition) and education quality (pupils drop-out, financial and human resources allocation). • HIV/Aids has made forward planning all the more important.

  36. Purpose • Just like projections, simulations and simulation models do not attempt to predict what will happen in the future. • Their purpose is to inform decision-makers and other major players in society of what would happen if such and such developments were to take place, or if such and such measures were to be taken. • By highlighting the consequences of different options, they can contribute to the selection of the most desirable one, bearing in mind all the conditions and constraints.

  37. IIEP Simulation Model • IIEP simulation model is a planning oriented model. The needs of teaching staff and physical and financial resources result in a planning model based on hypotheses on enrolment and school conditions (facilities, equipment and teaching conditions), by this way allows to simulate the different conditions (pedagogical and organisational conditions, classes, examination, graduation etc.) of improving the quality of education. • According to the country context, it can give:- the breakdown between public and private sectors, -important information for the resources needs estimates, and - in all cases, allows the evaluation of all means necessary for the functioning of the system. The IIEP model allows to simulate all these conditions

  38. What can be done • Information and best practices • New knowledge from research • Quick reference information • Proactive measures • Prototypes / Templates for action • General yet relevant • Simple and standardized • Comprehensive and sensitive • Applicable and adaptable

  39. IIEP is doing more than capacity building: • Condensed reports on finding from research • Building EMIS: Logic same across different applications • Projection models • Quality monitoring • Moral: Identify, tag and enhance what we are already doing

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