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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. February 4 th , 2014

Back to the Future Part II. On Behalf of The Design Build Institute of America. By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. February 4 th , 2014. Raging Bull (1980). Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2015*. Source: International Monetary Fund.

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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. February 4 th , 2014

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  1. Back to the Future Part II On Behalf of The Design Build Institute of America By: AnirbanBasu Sage Policy Group, Inc. February 4th, 2014

  2. Raging Bull (1980)

  3. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2015* Source: International Monetary Fund *2014-2015 data are projections

  4. Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing CountriesEstimated 2013, Annual Percent Change (for available nations) Source: International Monetary Fund *2013-2014 data are projections

  5. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2014 Projected Source: International Monetary Fund *For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices. Corresponding growth forecasts for GDP at factor cost are 4.6 percent for 2013.

  6. Debt by Selected Country2012 Source: International Monetary Fund *IMF Staff Projections

  7. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2013 Growth* Source: Yahoo! Finance *Change from the 2012 close to the 2013 close.

  8. S&P Select Sector Performance12-Month Percent Change as of December 31st, 2013 Source: Standard & Poor’s

  9. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 IndexMay 2008 – January 2014 S&P 500 index depicted in orange Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance

  10. Third Quarter Earnings for Select CorporationsEarnings per Share Source: Yahoo! Finance

  11. Recession Watchas of November 2013 Source: Moody’s Economy

  12. Industrial ProductionJanuary 2001 through December 2013 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

  13. Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2013Q4* Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *Advanced (1st) Estimate

  14. Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q4 2012 – Q4 2013 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  15. Ordinary People (1980)

  16. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSJanuary 2002 through December 2013 December 2013: +74K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  17. National Construction Employment Monthly Net ChangeFebruary 2000 through December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  18. National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorDecember 2012 v. December 2013 All told 2,186 K Jobs gained Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  19. Cumulative Job Growth Since December 2007: Full-time v. Part-timeDecember2007 – December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey Full-time: -4.33 million Part-time: +2.63 million

  20. Maryland Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)December 2012 v. December 2013Absolute Change MD Total: +36.0K; +1.4% US Total (SA): +2,186K; +1.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD lost 20,044 jobs between December 2012 and December 2013.

  21. Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)December 2012 v. December 2013Absolute Change Baltimore MSA Total: +18.6K; +1.4% MD Total (SA): +36.0K; +1.4% US Total (SA): +2,186K; +1.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  22. Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)December 2012 v. December 2013Absolute Change DC MSA Total: +25.8K; +0.8% US Total (SA): +2,186K; +1.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  23. Area Office Market Statistics2013 Q4 Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services

  24. Area Flex Industrial Market Statistics2013 Q4 Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services

  25. Area Warehouse Industrial Market Statistics2013 Q4 Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services

  26. Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) December 2012 v. December 2013 Percent Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.6%

  27. State-by-state Growth in Construction JobsDecember 2012 v. December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry.

  28. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: 6.7%

  29. Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)November 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  30. MD County Unemployment RatesNovember 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  31. Field of Dreams (1989)

  32. Architecture Billings IndexJanuary 2008 through November 2013 November, 2013: 49.8 Source: The American Institute of Architects

  33. Nonresidential Construction Put-in-PlaceDecember 2006 through December2013 Dec. 08: $697.4 billion Dec. 13: $573.1 billion -17.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  34. National Nonresidential Construction Spending by SubsectorDecember 2012 v. December 2013 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  35. Inputs to Construction PPIJanuary 2001 – December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  36. Key Commodity PricesJanuary 2001 – December 2013 Source: BLS: EIA

  37. Construction Materials PPI12-month % Change as of December 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  38. The Shining (1980)

  39. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through December 2013 Source: Conference Board

  40. Coming to America (1988) • The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP; • Healthcare reform could slow full-time hiring over the course of the year; and • Further evidence of Maryland’s economic and demographic under-performance. • Economy gained momentum over the course of last year; • Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like housing and autos; • The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding federal budgeting and monetary policy – that helps;

  41. Thank You • Follow us on Twitter @SagePolicyGroup • You can always reach me at abasu@sagepolicy.com • Please look for updates of information at www.sagepolicy.com. • Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE) • Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.

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