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Starbucks

Portfolio Managers: Honglu Liu Min Min Chen Rafi Qi He Presented April 17, 2012. Starbucks. Introduction. SBUX Current Price @2012/4/16: $ 59.65 GICS map: 30201030 Industry: Coffee Production Founded in 1971 as a coffee bean roaster and retailer

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Starbucks

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  1. Portfolio Managers: Honglu Liu Min Min Chen Rafi Qi He Presented April 17, 2012 Starbucks

  2. Introduction • SBUX Current Price @2012/4/16: $ 59.65 • GICS map: 30201030 • Industry: Coffee Production • Founded in 1971 as a coffee bean roaster and retailer • Strong customer loyalty (Not just coffee)

  3. Industry Overview • Coffee consumers in the United States spending an approximated 9.2 billion dollars in the retail sector and 8.7 billion dollars in the foodservice sector every year. • That is on average $164.71 per year on coffee Source: www.coffeeresearch.org

  4. Industry Overview

  5. Industry Overview - External Driver

  6. Macroeconomic Souce:CapitalIQ Macroeconomic

  7. Relevant Stock Market Prospects • Market Cap : 44.94 Billion • P/E(ttm): 35.72 • Forward P/E: 25.82 • PEG Ratio: 1.71 • 52-Week High: 61.98 • 52-Week Low: 33.72 Source: www.finance.yahoo.com

  8. SBUX vs. S&P 500 Relevant Stock Market Prospects Source: http://www.investorguide.com/stock-charts.php?ticker=SBUX

  9. SBUX vs. NASDAQ Index Relevant Stock Market Prospects Source: http://www.investorguide.com/stock-charts.php?ticker=SBUX

  10. Relevant Stock Market Prospects Source: SBUX 10-k

  11. Brand Portfolio Business review Source: SBUX Company Profile

  12. Business review Suppliers Starbucks Customers • Coffee bean • Other diary products • Farmer Support Center • Products through • Stores • Grocery • Warehouse club • Food service • etc • US 69% • International 22% • CPG 7% • Others 2% Source: SBUX &10-k

  13. Business review Source: SBUX 10-k

  14. Business review % of stores globally Source: SBUX Q1 FY12 Store Counts By Country

  15. Business review Source: SBUX Q1 FY12 Store Counts By Country 17,244 stores globally

  16. Business review 17,244 stores globally Source: SBUX Q1 FY12 Store Counts By Country

  17. Business review Source: SBUX 10-k

  18. Business review Source: SBUX 10-k

  19. Business review Source: SBUX 10-k

  20. Business review Source: SBUX 10-k

  21. Financial Analysis Data Source: SBUX 10-K

  22. Data Source: SBUX 10-K

  23. Data Source: SBUX 10-K

  24. Data Source: SBUX 10-K

  25. Key Statistics Closing price on 4/16/2012 : $ 59.65 Annual EPS (ttm): 1.67 PEG ratio: 1.71 D/A = 1% P/E (ttm): 35.72 P/E (forward): 25.82 Implied 1-yr growth in EPS: 38.34% Graham g (5-7 year growth) : 13.61% Greenblatt profitability ratios: 1.EBIT/Tangible Assets = 46.67% 2.EBIT/ Enterprise Value= 3.8% 1. + 2. = 50.47% Data Source: SBUX 10-K

  26. Public Comparable Analysis Data Source: Yahoo Finance

  27. - History Data: Balance Statement Financial Projection – DCF Analysis

  28. Financial Projection – DCF Analysis - History Data: Income Statement

  29. Financial Projection – DCF Analysis - WACC

  30. Financial Projection – DCF Analysis - Assumption

  31. Financial Projection – DCF Analysis - Results • We use 10.5% WACC • Base Scenario: $34.43 • Upside Scenario: $58.75 • Downside Scenario: $ 17.62

  32. Recommendation Watch List

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