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Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working?

Presented by: Louis Paquette Publisher, EGS www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca http://emerginggrowthstocks.blogspot.com www.BlogTalkRadio.com/Louis-Paquette. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working?. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working?.

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Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working?

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  1. Presented by: Louis Paquette Publisher, EGS www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca http://emerginggrowthstocks.blogspot.com www.BlogTalkRadio.com/Louis-Paquette Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working?

  2. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? • Question: In ONE WORD, what is the biggest challenge facing stock market investors and speculators?

  3. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? UNCERTAINTY Over: • Overall market conditions • Interest rates • Commodity prices • Specific company performance • Government intervention • Odds of discovering a mineable economic deposit • Competition • Etc.

  4. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? So what is certain? • Stock rise an average 7% per annum over time, but not consistently • There is a rhythm to asset price movement (cycles) from overbought to oversold, from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic • A contrarian can take advantage of this to boost returns and reduce losses Optimism Pessimism Stocks

  5. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? has strong annual seasonal tendencies Gold • Has risen 16 of past 20 Septembers • September kicks off several of the planet’s most potent gold-demand drivers • The post-monsoon wedding season in India, and Diwali, one of that country’s most important festivals; • Restocking by jewelry makers in advance of the Christmas shopping season in the United States; • The holy month of Ramadan in the Muslim world, whose end in late September is marked by a period of celebration and gift-giving; • And in China, National Day celebration starting October 1 and the run-up to the Chinese New Year in early 2010.

  6. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? So what does it look like? • Source: Moore Research Center, Inc. www.mrci.com

  7. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? So what does it look like?

  8. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? How has it done past 5 yrs?

  9. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? Gold Stocks

  10. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? Conclusions • Sort of works, but it’s not the end all, you need to “play it by ear” and look for oversold and overbought conditions to enter or exit • Works due to Physical demand for jewellery – and as the bull market has emerged Physical demand has fallen while Investment demand has grown – therefore seasonality isn’t as strong now as before • The way I would use: if price at significant high/low and coincides with seasonal trend – then use it – if not, don’t

  11. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? About EGS • Specialize in small caps • $159/yr or $15.90/month PayPal • www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca • http://emerginggrowthstocks.blogspot.com • “Week in Review with Lou” Podcast, with our Charts of the Week • Friday’s at 4:00: blogtalkradio • www.BlogTalkRadio.com/Louis-Paquette

  12. Update Oct 28, 2009 for VN Mtg. • Gold target this season: $1,300 $300 $300 $150 $150

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