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Gold Seasonality: Understanding Trends and Investing Wisely

Explore the effectiveness of gold seasonality in investment decisions. Learn about market challenges and opportunities related to gold prices and seasonal trends. Discover key strategies for maximizing returns in the gold market.

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Gold Seasonality: Understanding Trends and Investing Wisely

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  1. Presented by: Louis Paquette Publisher, EGS www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca http://emerginggrowthstocks.blogspot.com www.BlogTalkRadio.com/Louis-Paquette Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working?

  2. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? • Question: In ONE WORD, what is the biggest challenge facing stock market investors and speculators?

  3. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? UNCERTAINTY Over: • Overall market conditions • Interest rates • Commodity prices • Specific company performance • Government intervention • Odds of discovering a mineable economic deposit • Competition • Etc.

  4. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? So what is certain? • Stock rise an average 7% per annum over time, but not consistently • There is a rhythm to asset price movement (cycles) from overbought to oversold, from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic • A contrarian can take advantage of this to boost returns and reduce losses Optimism Pessimism Stocks

  5. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? has strong annual seasonal tendencies Gold • Has risen 16 of past 20 Septembers • September kicks off several of the planet’s most potent gold-demand drivers • The post-monsoon wedding season in India, and Diwali, one of that country’s most important festivals; • Restocking by jewelry makers in advance of the Christmas shopping season in the United States; • The holy month of Ramadan in the Muslim world, whose end in late September is marked by a period of celebration and gift-giving; • And in China, National Day celebration starting October 1 and the run-up to the Chinese New Year in early 2010.

  6. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? So what does it look like? • Source: Moore Research Center, Inc. www.mrci.com

  7. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? So what does it look like?

  8. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? How has it done past 5 yrs?

  9. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? Gold Stocks

  10. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? Conclusions • Sort of works, but it’s not the end all, you need to “play it by ear” and look for oversold and overbought conditions to enter or exit • Works due to Physical demand for jewellery – and as the bull market has emerged Physical demand has fallen while Investment demand has grown – therefore seasonality isn’t as strong now as before • The way I would use: if price at significant high/low and coincides with seasonal trend – then use it – if not, don’t

  11. Gold Seasonality – Is It Still Working? About EGS • Specialize in small caps • $159/yr or $15.90/month PayPal • www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca • http://emerginggrowthstocks.blogspot.com • “Week in Review with Lou” Podcast, with our Charts of the Week • Friday’s at 4:00: blogtalkradio • www.BlogTalkRadio.com/Louis-Paquette

  12. Update Oct 28, 2009 for VN Mtg. • Gold target this season: $1,300 $300 $300 $150 $150

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