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The Chemical & Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Project

The Chemical & Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Project

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The Chemical & Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Project

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  1. The Chemical & Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Project Amy E. Smithson, PhD

  2. Public Perception of the Threat Source: The Nuclear Threat Initiative, Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research, INC & Public Opinion Strategies

  3. Unconventional Terrorism: 1975-2002 • 72% of domestic activities = plots, pranks, non-credible hoaxes • 50% of 145 use cases = low-end substances or Aum Shinrikyo • All aerosol/spray attempts = Aum Shinrikyo • 19 = largest death toll • Over 95% = 3 or fewer killed, injured • Over 60% = no injuries

  4. Weapons Expertise, Materials Shortcut St. Petersburg 1 2 Seversk Sergiev Posad 1 Maradykovsky 1 1 1 2 Omutninsk 1 2 1 Dzerzhinsk 1 1 Kirov Novosibirsk Nizhniy Novgorod Strizhi 3 Berezniki 7 1 36 2 9 1 1 Moscow Kambarka 1 Koltsovo Akademgorodok Novocheboksarsk Reutov Chernogolovka 1 1 5 5 2 1 Golitsino Pokrov Kizner 1 2 1 Bogoroditsk 1 1 1 Lybuchany 1 1 Berdsk Obolensk Shchuch’ye Pochep 2 Vladimir Ufa 1 Penza Kurgan Zheleznogorsk Pushchino 1 1 1 1 Leonidovka Uzhgorod 1 Stepnogorsk 1 Chapaevsk 5 4 1 Voronezh 3 1 1 Gorny 1 3 Oziorsk 1 1 KAZAKHSTAN 1 Shikhany 1 1 8 Volgograd 1 Aralsk Almaty Vozrozhdeniye Island 1 1 Otar 4 1 LEGEND Nukus GEORGIA = Biological weapons production facilities 1 1 = Chemical weapons production facilities Abovian 2 AZERBAIJAN 3 = Biological weapons storage facilities ARMENIA TAJIKISTAN = Chemical weapons storage facilities = Biological weapons research facilities = Chemical weapons research facilities = Biological weapons testing grounds = Chemical weapons testing grounds = Biological weapons reserve mobilization facilities (To be activated in time of war) Sources: International Science and Technology Center; Science and Technology Center; Ken Alibek, Biohazard (New York: Random House, 1999); S. Utkina, A. Gorbovsky, A. Zhuchkov, “Russian Views on Conversion of Former Chemical Weapons Production Facilities,” OPCWSynthesis, Issue 5 (The Hague, Netherlands: Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, November/December 1999). Note: Some sites in Russia are not listed due to map constraints. 1 chemical weapons research facility in Angarsk; 1 biological weapons research facility and 1 chemical weapons research facility in Irkutsk; 2 biological weapons research facilities in Vladivostok; 1 biological weapons storage facility in Zima.

  5. Nature’s 20th Century Death Tolls Spanish Flu Cyclone Plague Smallpox Drought Earthquake Meningitis Cholera Landslide Yellow Fever Volcano Cholera Influenza Flood Influenza Typhus Plague Measles Meningitis Smallpox Arbovirus Source:The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

  6. Industrial Chemicals Shortcut:US Chemical Incidents by County 1987-1996 Source: The 600K Report: Commercial Chemical Incidents in the United States 1987–1996, Special Congressional Summary (Washington, DC: US Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board, 24 February 1999).

  7. US Government: 23 January 2003

  8. US Government: 24 January 2003

  9. Congressional Oversight:Before. . . and After

  10. Assistance to First Responders ($311 million) Unconventional Terrorism Preparation and Response ($664 million) Defense Against Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism ($1.7 billion) Defense Against Terrorism ($9.7 billion) FY2001 Federal Counter-Terrorism Budget

  11. FY2001 Federal $ to States, Locals

  12. FY2002 Federal Counter-Terrorism Budget Assistance to First Responders $500 million (+ $783 million**) Unconventional Terrorism Preparation and Response $1.6 billion (+ $4.9 billion**) Defense Against Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism $3.3 billion (+ $4.5 billion**) Defense Against Terrorism $24.2 billion (+ $12.2 billion**) **Emergency supplemental appropriations after 11 September 2001

  13. Preparedness Instead of Rhetoric, Pork • Step-by-step, not whole sale reorganization • Emphasize front-line preparedness • Institutionalize training • Share lessons experienced, exemplary practices • Create formula to sustain preparedness

  14. Candidate Exemplary Practices • Automatic hospital alerts • Overcoming the hospital decontamination bottleneck: • Enhanced hospital capacity • Partnering mutual aid fire companies with hospitals • Drive-through prophylaxis • Pharmaceutical “bubbles”/Shelf Life Extension Program

  15. Candidate Exemplary Practices • Early warning syndrome surveillance: • 911 calls • Over-the-counter drug sales • Sentinel hospitals, nursing homes, laboratories, veterinarians • HMO call-in centers • School absenteeism • Public safety, transport personnel absenteeism

  16. Candidate Exemplary Practices • Regional Hospital Planning: • Burden-sharing • Emergency supplies • Integration of state, federal assets • Command, control, and communications • Off-site care facilities • Personnel reservoirs • Security • Casualty management • Public information

  17. Helping Citizens Cope • Dispel the myths • Explain relative risks: • Car accidents = 43,000+ • Lightning = 60+ • Bathtub = 330+ • What citizens can “do” • Government = has plans, capabilities