1. Risk & ReturnChapter 8 Investment Risk Company Specific Risk Portfolio Risk Dr. David P Echevarria

2. Investment Risk • Investment risk is related to the probability of earning a low or negative actual return. • The greater the chance of lower than expected or negative returns, the riskier the investment. • Risk is measured as a probability distribution • Mean expected return ( ) • Standard deviation (s) • Note: and s are sample statistics. m and s are population parameters (unobserved). Dr. David P Echevarria

3. Probability Distributions Firm X Firm Y Rate of Return (%) -70 0 15 100 Expected Rate of Return Note: Y is riskier than X Dr. David P Echevarria

4. Average Returns / Risk 1924 - 2004 Average Standard ReturnDeviation Small-company stocks 17.5% 33.1% Large-company stocks 12.4 20.3 L-T corporate bonds 6.2 8.6 L-T government bonds 5.8 9.3 U.S. Treasury bills 3.8 3.1 Source: Based on Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: (Valuation Edition) 2005 Yearbook (Chicago: Ibbotson Associates, 2005), p28 Dr. David P Echevarria

5. Analysis of Standard Deviations • Standard deviation (si) measures total, or stand-alone, risk. • The larger si is, the lower the probability that actual returns will be closer to expected returns. • Larger si is associated with a wider probability distribution of returns (e.g.; firm Y) • Standard deviations are scale sensitive. Dr. David P Echevarria

6. Scale-Free Measure of Risk Coefficient of variation (CV): A standardized measure of dispersion about the expected value, that shows the amount of risk per unit of return. Dr. David P Echevarria

7. Scale Free Risk Comparisons Average Standard Coeff. of Return*DeviationVariation Small stocks 17.5% 33.1% 1.89 Large Stocks 12.4 20.3 1.64 L-T Corporates 6.2 8.6 1.39 L-T Governments 5.8 9.3 1.60 U.S. T-bills 3.8 3.1 0.82 * Arithmetic Average Dr. David P Echevarria

8. Investor Attitude Towards Risk • Investors are assumed to be risk averse. • Risk aversion – assumes investors dislike risk and require higher rates of return to encourage them to hold riskier securities. • Risk premium – the difference between the return on a risky asset and a riskless asset, which serves as compensation for investors to hold riskier securities. Dr. David P Echevarria

9. Managing Investor Risk • Primary Strategy to Manage Risk • Holding a diversified portfolio of securities • Stocks (common, preferred, foreign) • Bonds (treasury, municipal, corporate) • Mutual Funds (Growth, Income, Balanced, etc.) • Sources of Portfolio Risk • Firm-specific (diversifiable, non-systematic risk) • Market related (non-diversifiable, systematic risk) Dr. David P Echevarria

10. HOMEWORK CHAPTER 8 • Selt-Test: ST-1, parts a, c, e, i • Questions: 8-2, 8-4 • Problems: 8-1, 8-3, 8-6 Dr. David P Echevarria

11. Portfolio Risk sp (%) Diversifiable Risk 35 Stand-Alone Risk, sp 20 0 Market Risk 10 20 30 40 2,000+ # Stocks in Portfolio Dr. David P Echevarria

12. Stock W Stock M Portfolio WM 25 15 0 0 0 -10 -10 Portfolio Risk – Negative Correlation Dr. David P Echevarria

13. Stock M’ Portfolio MM’ Stock M 25 25 25 15 15 15 0 0 0 -10 -10 -10 Portfolio Risk – Positive Correlation Dr. David P Echevarria

14. Capital Asset Pricing Model • Asset Pricing Theory seeks to explain why certain assets have higher expected returns than other assets and why expected returns vary over time. Expected returns are those returns when assets are priced in equilibrium: • demand for assets = supply of assets.

15. Capital Asset Pricing Model • CAPM Measures Risk (b) relative to the Market • CAPM suggests that a stock’s required rate of return equals the risk-free return plus a marketrisk premium multiplied by b (measure of relative risk) ri = rRF + (rM – rRF) bi • Primary conclusion: The relative riskiness of a stock (b) is its contribution to the riskiness (Pf Beta) of a well-diversified portfolio. Dr. David P Echevarria

16. Market Risk Premium • M.R.P. = (rM – rRF) • Additional return over the risk-free rate needed to compensate investors for assuming an average amount of risk. • Price of Risk = (rM – rRF) bi • Its magnitude depends on the stock’s beta (b), the expected market return and the expected return on the risk-free asset (i.e., 30-day T-Bill) • Varies from year to year, but most estimates suggest that it ranges between 4% and 8% per year. Dr. David P Echevarria

17. The Search for “Alpha” • Regression Estimates: y = a + bx + e • a, the intercept, is also termed the idiosyncratic return for the random asset y. Investors prefer stocks with positive alphas. • b, the slope coefficient, becomes the beta of the pricing equation. • e, is the random error term.