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Forest health in the drying climate of southwest Western Australia

Forest health in the drying climate of southwest Western Australia. Niels Brouwers , T. Lyons, G. Hardy n.brouwers@murdoch.edu.au. Overview. Climate change in Australia Climate change in southwest Western Australia (SWWA) Forest declines in SWWA Eucalyptus wandoo decline study.

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Forest health in the drying climate of southwest Western Australia

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  1. Forest health in the drying climate of southwest Western Australia Niels Brouwers, T. Lyons, G. Hardy n.brouwers@murdoch.edu.au

  2. Overview • Climate change in Australia • Climate change in southwest Western Australia (SWWA) • Forest declines in SWWA • Eucalyptus wandoo decline study

  3. Temperature change

  4. Rainfall change

  5. Southwest of Western Australia

  6. Temperature changes in SWWA

  7. Rainfall changes in SWWA

  8. Forest declines in SWWA

  9. Eucalyptus gomphocephala (tuart) decline

  10. Eucalyptus wandoo (wandoo) decline

  11. Eucalyptus wandoo decline study • Objectives • Hypotheses • Methods • Results • Discussion

  12. Objective • To investigate the relationship between changes in wandoo health and climate related variables

  13. Hypotheses • Declines in health are related to: • Decreasing rainfall • Decreasing soil moisture availability • Increasing temperatures

  14. Methods • Surveys across the geographical distribution of wandoo were carried out in 2002 and 2008 • Crown health was estimated at 123 sites • Bureau of Meteorology data and modelled soil moisture1 were used in the analyses 1 Raupach MR, PR Briggs, V Haverd, EA King, M Paget, CM Trudinger (2008a), Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP). CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Component: Final Report for Phase 3. <http://www.csiro.au/awap>.

  15. Results & Discussion • Declines in health are related to: • Decreasing rainfall • Indirectly • Decreasing soil moisture availability • Indirectly • Increasing temperatures • Yes

  16. Adjusted R-squared: 0.138, F-statistic: 20.54 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 1.384e-05

  17. Adjusted R-squared: 0.01231, F-statistic: 2.52 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 0.115

  18. Adjusted R-squared: 0.1205 , F-statistic: 17.72 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 4.947e-05

  19. Adjusted R-squared: 0.1506, F-statistic: 22.63 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: 5.488e-06

  20. Adjusted R-squared: 0.6629 , F-statistic: 240.9 on 1 and 121 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16

  21. Conclusion • All together this study indicates that the negative trend in wandoo health is (at least partially) driven by the changes in climate that the southwest of Western Australia has been experiencing over the last 15-30 years.

  22. Thank you for your attention Contact: n.brouwers@murdoch.edu.au Website: http://www.foresthealth.com.au/

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