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Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) An update on Developments

Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) An update on Developments. Andrew Mortimer. outline. Background to the Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) The Quarterly Supply-Use (QSU) framework Overview of the framework and relationship to existing stats and the new ones

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Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) An update on Developments

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  1. Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP)An update on Developments Andrew Mortimer

  2. outline • Background to the Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) • The Quarterly Supply-Use (QSU) framework • Overview of the framework and relationship to existing stats and the new ones • New quarterly publication • The next 12 months…

  3. SNAP Project Overview Two main strands: • Building on the annual Input-Output framework for Scotland to produce more up to date estimates of income, expenditure and production GDP in value terms; • Use a range of data sources and the quarterly UK National Accounts to produce a range of consistent quarterly economic indicators for Scotland.

  4. New indicators (income and expenditure) Over the past year, OCEA have made some significant progress in the early stages of compiling an experimental set of National Accounts for Scotland.  The following points are the main achievements: • experimental quarterly estimates of Household Final Consumption Expenditure for Scotland (this combines EFS data with National Accounts HHFCE data to proxy HHFCE for Scotland; • cash value estimates of manufacturing exports on a quarterly basis.  This is consistent with the Index of Manufactured Exports series; • experimental quarterly GDP figures (income based) in current prices.  These figures are quarterly, but benchmarked to the annual Regional Accounts GVA estimates, with adjustments for taxes less subsidies on production and products derived from the GERS analysis; • various analyses of the Scottish elements of UK economic statistics are also provided on the SNAP website if used as a component part of the SNAP analysis.

  5. Quarterly Supply and Use framework

  6. Quarterly Supply-Use (QSU) system • the core of SNAP; • Completely integrated with other economic statistics; • Allows discrepancies to be identified between disparate datasets (data confrontation); • The key tool to ensure consistency and quality of new indicators (and reduce scale of revisions) • Four versions of the QSU system developed so far: • limited trial of producing current price GDP(O) in monetary values • Quarterly forecasted supply-Use tables from latest IO year (2004) onwards • Extension of quarterly time-series 1998-present, fully benchmarked to detailed annual components • Current version – incorporation of independent estimates of income and expenditure components and re-balancing the quarterly tables

  7. SNAP publication Structure of the first publication

  8. Consistency with other estimates • Entirely consistent with published supply and use tables 1998-2007 • Consistent with benchmarked GDP(O) in constant basic prices estimates • Consistent with IME (short-term) • Consistent with UKEA where appropriate

  9. Tables 1 and 2

  10. Tables 3,4 and 5 • As before but Constant prices • Including net product taxes and GDP at market prices • Chained volume indices • Quarterly growth rates • Implied deflators

  11. Tables 6 and 7

  12. Tables 8 and 9 • Households Final Consumption Expenditure • Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households • Expenditure by non-domestic households • Central Government • Local Government • Gross Capital Formation (inc. valuables and inventories) • Exports to the Rest of the UK • Exports to the Rest of the World • Imports from the Rest of the UK • Imports from the Rest of the World • Gross Domestic Product at current market prices • SA and NSA Possibly collapse?

  13. Additional Tables • Compensation of Employees breakdown: • employment data by industry • CoE per FTE employee • CoE by industry • Detailed Household expenditure (13 COICOP categories) • Alternative valuations of GDP including shares of extra-Regio • Quarterly Scottish public sector revenues

  14. Public Sector revenues • Consistent with GERS estimates • Taxes on income and wealth • National insurance contributions • Taxes on production and imports • Other current taxes • Taxes on capital • Gross operating surplus • Rent and other current transfers • Interest and dividends from private sector and abroad • Total current non North Sea revenue • North Sea revenue (per capita share) • North Sea revenue (geographical share) • Total current revenue (including North Sea per capita share) • Total current revenue (including North Sea geographical share)

  15. What happens next? • Next 12 months • Publish 4 quarterly editions of the SNAP publication as experimental statistics / data in development; • Seek feedback, comments and suggestions from expert users – possibly establishing a short-term working group to steer developments; • Attempt to gain National Statistics accreditation • Even longer term? • Constant price estimates: • double-deflated supply use tables? • Revised benchmarking of existing GDP(o) to DD/SUTs • Simultaneous balancing of current and constant price QSUs – the Dutch approach – probably a step too far? • Model-based regional GVA estimates for Scottish LAs? • GNI and other National Accounts data

  16. SNAP website http://www.scotland.gov.uk/snap

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