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How to Approach the future?

How to Approach the future?. Jan-Evert Nilsson Blekinge Institute of Technology. The Dilemma of Policy-making. KNOWLEDGE. POLICY-MAKING. TIME PRESENT. TIME PAST. TIME FUTURE. Time present and time past are both perhaps present in time future

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How to Approach the future?

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  1. How to Approach the future? Jan-Evert Nilsson Blekinge Institute of Technology

  2. The Dilemma of Policy-making KNOWLEDGE POLICY-MAKING TIME PRESENT TIME PAST TIME FUTURE

  3. Time present and timepast arebothperhaps present in timefuture and timefuturecontained in timepast Four Quartets. A poem by T.S Elliot The Assumption

  4. Perspectives on the Future – the Classical View Meeting the future Prediction, Scenario TIME PRESENT TIME PAST TIME FUTURE

  5. Explain History and Predict the Future Explanation = F(Initial circumstances, Theory) Prediction = F(Initial circumstances, Theory) TIME PRESENT TIME PAST TIME FUTURE

  6. The Limitations of Planning In essence, planning is an exercise in a non- deterministicconceptionofhistory, though it recognizesthe limitations putup by existing conditions and forces and theircausal interrelations. Gunnar MyrdalBeyond the Welfare State. 1960

  7. Regions in transition • Regions are a territorywithoutabilityact • Actors in a region are meeting the future • The changesareinterpreted in the terms ofpastexperiences • Historydefines the recognizedopportunities and… • …result in a pathdependentdevelopment

  8. Perspectives on the Future –The Modern View Creating the future Plan, Strategy TIME PRESENT TIME PAST TIME FUTURE

  9. Storytelling and“Images” of the Future Storytelling = F(Evidence, Concepts) Future Images = F(Future actions, Concepts) TIME PAST TIME FUTURE TIME PRESENT

  10. Present Time People always live in the time between a better future and the good old days HenrikTikkanenFaces and views 1980

  11. Europe faces a moment of transformation... The EU must now take charge of its future. We need a strategy to help us come out stronger from the crisis and to turn EU into a smart, sustainable and inclusive economy delivering high levels of employment, productivity an social cohesion. (European Commission 2010)

  12. Managing the future – Three Approaches • The reactive approach; • Solve existing problems • The active approach; • Upgrade existing structures • The pro-active approach • Build the new

  13. When Rhetoric Meets Reality • On one hand EU are unsuccessful in meeting actual problems of the Union. • On the other hand do the Union produce a flow of new visions of the bright future they want to build. • The gap between the actual situation and the visions is an alarming chasm In a healthy world an organisation acting like this looks “sick” and will loose its credibility.

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