Land use and water Resources

1. Land use and water Resources Presented at GECAFS Conference in Katmandu, Nepal By Dr. Pervaiz Amir June 29-30, 2006

2. Coverage of this presentation • Land Use/Land Cover Change as Driver for Water related Stresses (extreme events) 2. Some Brief Findings of APN Funded Activities in two Selected SHU Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas

3. Studies/Sources Land Use, Historical Perspectives focus on Indo-Gangetic Plains. Editors Y.P Abrol; Satpal Sangwan and M K Tiwari Allied Publishers. New Delhi. 2000 Socio-economic aspects of drought in Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas Hydrological Units of Pakistan. Science and Culture. Vol 71 No7-8 July-August, 2005 the Indian Science News Association. New Delhi. Climate Change and Water resources in South Asia- Proceedings of Year end Workshop Kathmandu, 7-9 January, 2003 (APN) Current Issues in Water Sector (Pakistan Water CAS-World Bank)- Pakistan’s Water Economy Running Dry In India: India’s Water Economy Bracing for Turbulent Future

4. OBJECTIVES-APN Project • Analyze recent climate variability and extreme events, and impacts on regional water resources • Assess impacts of projected CC & variability and associated extreme events, and socio-economic changes, on water resources • Determine vulnerability of regional water resources to CC; identify key risks to each sub-region and prioritize adaptation responses • Evaluate efficacy of various adaptation strategies or coping mechanisms that may reduce vulnerability of regional water resources • Provide inputs to relevant national and regional long-term development strategies

8. Agro Ecological Zones: Main features of the agro-ecological zones of Pakistan

10. LAND UTILIZATION STATISTICS (Million HA)

11. E = Estimated R = Repeated of last year. Source:- Provincial Agriculture Departments. GEOGRAPHICAL AEA is that area which has been surveyed and calculated by the Survey of Pakistan. TOTAL AEA REPORTED is the total physical area of the village/deh, tehsil or district etc. FOREST AERA is the area of any land classed or administered as forest under any legal.Enactment dealing with forests. Any cultivated area which may exist within such forest should be exclude (and shown under heading cultivated area).

12. Land Use/Land Cover As Driver of ChangeLand Use f { Resource Endowments, Land Q, History, Pop, climate (T and P)-changes, skills and tradition, Type of Agriculture, Infrastructure, Water Q and Availability +Investments,profitability Development Goals, T }

13. Virtual Water Content • Agriculture viewed as virtual water outputs that result in net transfer of water when the produce is sold • Thus a water deficient country when it exports wheat, rice, meat, beef and cheese, is essentially using a large input of water that it transfers to water scarce nations • In Pakistan wheat produced in Punjab and Sindh is being exported to neighboring provinces, NWFP and Balouchistan- A what if Crisis in the Making- Wheat failure in India or China and these countries enter in as big buyers in the international arena!

14. Virtual Water Content of a Few Selected Products in M3/Ton

15. Water Requirements Equivalent of Crop Production

16. SELECTED SUB HYDROLOGICAL UNITS

17. Survey Objectives • To provide data on key aspects of Livelihood, Drought, Changes in magnitude, Rainfall pattern, Agriculture, Livestock, and certain coping mechanisms. • To report on farmers perceptions about Drought in the areas of Bahawalpur and Mirpur Khas.

23. Source: APN Survey, July 2003-MirPur Khas

24. Any other damages experienced 70 60 Percentage Cattle 50 Poultry 40 Grazing ground Vegetable 30 Garden 20 Fruit Orchard 10 0 Description

25. Adjustments adopted to cope with the last drought? (n=113) Source: APN Survey, June 2003-Bahawalpur Note: Due to multiple responses, sample size exceeds 113 Effectiveness of water user organizations to motivate the farmers to solve the problems related to water use? (n=113) Source: APN Survey, July 2003-MirPur Khas

26. Findings of APN Survey • Land size small, dependence on desert and periphery on livestock. Carrying capacity becoming problem during drought • Minimal govt or NGO support. Food main expense. Income low and uncertain • Main reason for drought rainfall. High shadow price of water during drought • Little application of advanced technology, sprinkler, centrifuge-Egypt, Israel • Droughts damage crops, livestock, pastures, gardens and distort livelihood • Major difference in crop and livestock yields . Statistically significant • Decision making framework compels step-wise adoption. Need drought and salt tolerant varieties

27. Water scarcity, well digging now at 250 feet. We must conserve total water, price it and regulate its use No more a free good. • Considerable political turmoil. Droughts fueling controversy. • Linear application inappropriate • Drought forces an Exit strategy where options exist. Food security not problem but purchasing power lacking • Water user association, extension in-effective. Livestock extension rated good. Policy interventions needed. • People Cope with livestock sale, equipment, gold and belongings. Long tem impacts on human lives, asset inventory, and sustainability of systems • Droughts affect people physiologically, depress them and changes their perspective on life

28. CC Findings • 92% of the country’s area is arid to semi-arid – thus the climate change will have negative impact on availability of water because of: • Extremes are going to be severe i.e. droughts • Reduced rainfall in the arid and semi-arid monsoonal regions • Reduced snowfall in the valleys of the arid winter dominant rainfall regions of Balochistan

29. Contribution by Glaciers Shahid 2004

30. Sum up land Use and Water • Change in water availability is evident – impacts of variability or climate change – persistent drought is a phenomena of severity of extremes • Increasing trend in Water Demand – competing water users – people, agriculture, nature • Physical limitations with the surface water resources • Groundwater Resource Limitations -Quantity and Quality – exploiting the marginal quality zone

31. Meeting the Water Stress Challenge in Agriculture • Water conservation (raised bed furrow technology) • Efficiency options (sprinkler, trickle, drip etc.) • New Storages for Regulation • Supply and Demand Management • Addressing water Rights an entitlements • Managing the Management Nexus

32. Macro Implication of Water Saving with Adoption of Resource Conservation Technologies Source: OFWM, 1999-2000 and Dhillon and Sidhu, 2004

37. Water channels

38. Water Ponds

39. Technologies For Irrigated Areas

40. Technologies For Barani Areas

41. Technologies For Desert areas

42. THANK YOU