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Pacific Member Countries

Vanuatu. PNG. Timor-Leste. Real GDP (% change) Papua New Guinea. 0. 1.0 ... Vanuatu. Policy choices. Stylized growth paths. No policy response. With counter-cyclical ...

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Pacific Member Countries

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    1. Asian Development Outlook 2009 The Pacific Developing Member Countries 31 March 2009

    2. Impacts of the global crisis

    ? export prices and volumes ? tourism income ? remittances ? returns on offshore investments lost investment projects ? credit and ? interest rates real exchange rate effects

    Tourism has weakened

    4. Unemployment is rising OS

    0 2 4 6 8 Jan '08 Apr Jul Oct Jan '09 % Australia NZ US

    5. Outlook for 2009

    -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Tonga Palau Samoa Fiji Islands FSM Marshall Islands Cook Islands Kiribati Tuvalu Nauru Solomon Islands Vanuatu PNG Timor-Leste Real GDP (% change)

    6. Papua New Guinea

    7. Fiji Islands

    8. Solomon Islands

    9. Inflation to ease in 09

    0 5 10 15 20 25 Jan 07 Apr Jul Oct Jan 08 Apr Jul Oct Samoa Solomon Islands -10 0 10 20 30 40 Mar 08 Jun Sep Dec Mar 08 Jun Sep Dec Kiribati PNG Vanuatu % % % %

    10. Policy choices Stylized growth paths

    No policy response With counter-cyclical policy Economic growth %

    11. Policy actions Counter-cyclical policy

    (i) Short-term fiscal stimulus - where affordable and value for money - planned stimulus is too high in Cook Islands, Kiribati, PNG and Timor-Leste (ii) Prudent monetary expansion - PNG, Samoa, Tonga, Vanuatu and (?) Fiji Islands, but not Solomon Islands (iii) Competitive exchange rate

    12. More policy actions

    (iv) Quick-win initiatives to raise the region’s competitiveness - e.g. in communications, airlines, shipping (v) Help the vulnerable - best option is to limit the downturn (vi) Share information and encourage open dialogue

    13. Thank you

    14. Policy choices Stylized growth paths

    The global crisis The global crisis again A more typical situation No policy response With counter-cyclical policy With longer term initiatives only Economic growth % Economic growth % Economic growth %

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