1 / 32

Human Longevity and a New Vision of Aging

Human Longevity and a New Vision of Aging. Leonid A. Gavrilov , Natalia S. Gavrilova Center on Aging NORC and The University of Chicago Chicago, USA. Will radical life extension lead to catastrophic overpopulation?. Study that attempts to answer this question.

Patman
Télécharger la présentation

Human Longevity and a New Vision of Aging

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Human Longevity anda New Vision of Aging • Leonid A. Gavrilov, • Natalia S. Gavrilova • Center on Aging • NORC and The University of Chicago • Chicago, USA

  2. Will radical life extension lead to catastrophic overpopulation?

  3. Study that attempts to answer this question Center on Aging, NORC at The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637

  4. The Purpose of this Study • This study explores different demographic scenarios and population projections, in order to clarify what could be the demographic consequences of radical life extension.

  5. Method of population projection • Cohort-component method of population projection (standard demographic approach) • Age-specific fertility is assumed to remain unchanged over time, to study mortality effects only • No migration assumed, because of the focus on natural increase or decline of the population

  6. Radical scenario: No aging after 60

  7. Population projection with negligible senescence after age 60 Conclusion: Even in the case of radical life extension (no aging after 60 years) the natural population growth is relatively small

  8. Conclusions • A general conclusion of this study is that population changes are surprisingly small and slow in their response to a dramatic life extension. • Moreover, defeating aging helps to prevent natural population decline in developed countries

  9. New Vision of Aging-Related Diseases

  10. High Initial Damage Load (HIDL) Idea "Adult organisms already have an exceptionally high load of initial damage, which is comparable with the amount of subsequent aging-related deterioration, accumulated during the rest of the entire adult life." Source: Gavrilov, L.A. & Gavrilova, N.S. 1991. The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach. Harwood Academic Publisher, New York.

  11. Practical implications from the HIDL hypothesis: "Even a small progress in optimizing the early-developmental processes can potentially result in a remarkable prevention of many diseases in later life, postponement of aging-related morbidity and mortality, and significant extension of healthy lifespan." Source: Gavrilov, L.A. & Gavrilova, N.S. 1991. The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach. Harwood Academic Publisher, New York.

  12. Life Expectancy at Age 80 and Month of Birth Data source: Social Security Death Master File Published in: Gavrilova, N.S., Gavrilov, L.A. Search for Predictors of Exceptional Human Longevity. In: “Living to 100 and Beyond” Monograph. The Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois, USA, 2005, pp. 1-49.

  13. Gavrilov, L., Gavrilova, N. Reliability theory of aging and longevity. In: Handbook of the Biology of Aging. Academic Press, 6th edition (published recently).

  14. Approach To study “success stories” in long-term avoidance of fatal diseases (survival to 100 years) and factors correlated with this remarkable survival success Jeanne Calment (1875-1997)

  15. Within-Family Study of Season of Birth and Exceptional Longevity Month of birth is a useful proxy characteristic for environmental effects acting during in-utero and early infancy development

  16. Siblings Born in September-November Have Higher Chances to Live to 100Within-family study of 9,724 centenarians born in 1880-1895 and their siblings survived to age 50

  17. Possible explanations These are several explanations of season-of birth effects on longevity pointing to the effects of early-life events and conditions: seasonal exposure to infections, nutritional deficiencies, environmental temperature and sun exposure. All these factors were shown to play role in later-life health and longevity.

  18. People Born to Young Mothers Have Twice Higher Chances to Live to 100Within-family study of 2,153 centenarians and their siblings survived to age 50. Family size <9 children. p=0.007 p=0.003 p=0.032 Note: both parents lived 50 years or more

  19. Possible explanation These findings are consistent with the 'best eggs are used first' hypothesis suggesting that earlier formed oocytes are of better quality, and go to fertilization cycles earlier in maternal life.

  20. Effects of early-life and middle-age conditions on exceptional longevity

  21. Case-control study of longevity Cases - 765 centenarians survived to age 100 and born in USA in 1890-91 Controls – 783 their shorter-lived peers born in USA in 1890-91 and died at age 65 years Method: Multivariate logistic regression Genealogical records were linked to 1900 and 1930 US censuses providing a rich set of variables

  22. Genealogies and 1900 and 1930 censuses provide three types of variables • Characteristics of early-life conditions • Characteristics of midlife conditions • Family characteristics

  23. Parental longevity, early-life and midlife conditions and survival to age 100. Men

  24. Parental longevity, early-life and midlife conditions and survival to age 100Women

  25. Variables found to be non-significant in multivariate analyses • Parental literacy and immigration status, farm childhood, size of household in 1900, percentage of survived children (for mother) – a proxy for child mortality, sibship size, father-farmer in 1900 • Marital status, veteran status, childlessness, age at first marriage • Paternal and maternal age at birth, loss of parent before 1910

  26. Conclusions Both midlife and early-life conditions affect survival to age 100 Parental longevity turned out to be the strongest predictor of survival to age 100 Men are likely to be more sensitive to the effects of early-life conditions.

  27. References Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. Demographic Consequences of Defeating Aging. Rejuvenation Research, 2010, 13(2-3): 329-334. Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. Biodemography of exceptional longevity: Early-life and mid-life predictors of human longevity. Biodemography and Social Biology, 2012, 58(1):14-39

  28. References (continued) Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. Determinants of exceptional human longevity: new ideas and findings. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2013, 11: 291-323 Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S. New Developments in Biodemography of Aging and Longevity. Gerontology, 2015, 61(4): 364-371, DOI: 10.1159/000369011, Epub 2014 Dec 20.

  29. Acknowledgments This study was made possible thanks to: generous support from the National Institute on Aging and the Society of Actuaries

  30. For More Information and Updates Please Visit Our Scientific and Educational Website on Human Longevity: • http://longevity-science.org And Please Post Your Comments at our Scientific Discussion Blog: • http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/

More Related