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September 3 ed , 2009

Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time. S afaa A ldwaik. saldwaik@clarku.edu. GIS & LAND CHANGE SCIENCE. September 3 ed , 2009. Fall 09. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time. Major Points .

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September 3 ed , 2009

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  1. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time SafaaAldwaik saldwaik@clarku.edu GIS & LAND CHANGE SCIENCE September 3ed, 2009 Fall 09

  2. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time Major Points • We examine transitions of land categories from three points in time to test the Stationarity of transitions. • We use Cross-tabulation matrices for the Plum Island Ecosystems site • Computer code has been created to automate this analysis

  3. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time 1985 1991 1999 Land-Cover from three points in time for the Plum Island Ecosystems site Source: Office of Geographic and Environment Information (MassGIS), Commonwealth of Massachusetts Executive Office of Environmental Affairs

  4. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time 1985 1991 1999 Percentage of Area Covered by each land-cover category

  5. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time PIE: Losses during 1985 - 1991

  6. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time PIE: Gains during 1985 - 1991

  7. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time PIE: Losses during 1991 - 1999

  8. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time PIE: Gains during 1991 - 1999

  9. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time Time Interval Net Change Gains Losses G L L L G L L PIE: Gross gains and gross losses between 1: 1985 and 1991 2: 1991 and 1999

  10. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time Time Interval Net Change Gains Losses G L L L G L L PIE: Annual Rate of Gains and Losses during two time intervals 1: 1985 and 1991 2: 1991 and 1999

  11. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time PIE: Cross-tabulation matrix for comparing two maps from two points in time (pixels counts) PIE: Cross-tabulation matrix for comparing two maps from two points in time (percentage of landscape)

  12. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time If Built will gain 2.83% in space, then what proportion of the other categories will it over take? 0.23 0.10 1.98 0.09 0.39 0.04

  13. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time Matrix showing observed transitions in White and expected gains in Greenas a percentage of the land cover

  14. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time If Forest lost 2.09% in space, then what proportion of the other categories replaced it? 1.46 0.16 0.07   0.07 0.30 0.03

  15. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time Matrix showing observed transitions in White and expected losses in Redas a percentage of the land cover

  16. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time Matrix showing observed transitions in White and expected losses in Redas a percentage of the total Change

  17. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time Matrix showing observed transitions in White and expected gains in Greenas a percentage of the total Change

  18. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time From: Built To: Built 0.68 1.99 1.98 2.18 2.15 0.52 Percentage of Total Change 0.19 0.18 0.46 0.45 0.11 0.39 0.23 0.24 0.32 0.45 0.24 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.13 0.18 0.01 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 Time Interval: 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 To : Agriculture Range Forest Water Wetland Barren 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 From : Agriculture Range Forest Water Wetland Barren Solid bars: Observed transition Fabric bars: Expected transition Italic numbers: Percentage of landscape PIE: Percentage of Observed Transitions, Expected Losses and Expected Gains from the Total Change: the Built category during two time intervals: 1: 1985 and 1991 2: 1991 and 1999

  19. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time From: Forest To: Forest 1.99 0.68 0.59 2.15 1.46 1.64 Percentage of Total Change 0.20 0.19 0.12 0.30 0.32 0.12 0.07 0.04 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.16 0.16 0.07 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.01 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.01 Time Interval: 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 To : Built Agriculture Range Water Wetland Barren 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 From : Built Agriculture Range Water Wetland Barren Solid bars: Observed transition Fabric bars: Expected transition Italic numbers: Percentage of landscape PIE: Percentage of Observed Transitions, Expected Losses and Expected Gains from the Total Change: the Forest category during two time intervals: 1: 1985 and 1991 2: 1991 and 1999

  20. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time From: Agriculture To: Agriculture 0.01 0.46 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.45 0.01 0.22 0.22 Percentage of Total Change 0.23 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Time Interval: 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 To : Built Range Forest Water Wetland Barren 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 From : Built Range Forest Water Wetland Barren Solid bars: Observed transition Fabric bars: Expected transition Italic numbers: Percentage of landscape PIE: Percentage of Observed Transitions, Expected Losses and Expected Gains from the Total Change: the Agriculture category during two time intervals: 1: 1985 and 1991 2: 1991 and 1999

  21. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time 0.32 From: Range To: Range 0.24 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.11 0.12 0.15 0.14 Percentage of Total Change 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Time Interval: Time Interval: 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 To : Built Agriculture Forest Water Wetland Barren 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 From : Built Agriculture Forest Water Wetland Barren Solid bars: Observed transition Fabric bars: Expected transition Italic numbers: Percentage of landscape PIE: Percentage of Observed Transitions, Expected Losses and Expected Gains from the Total Change: the Range category during two time intervals: 1: 1985 and 1991 2: 1991 and 1999

  22. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time From: Water To: Water 0.02 0.03 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Percentage of Total Change 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Time Interval: Time Interval: 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 To : Built Agriculture Range Forest Wetland Barren 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 From : Built Agriculture Range Forest Wetland Barren Solid bars: Observed transition Fabric bars: Expected transition Italic numbers: Percentage of landscape PIE: Percentage of Observed Transitions, Expected Losses and Expected Gains from the Total Change: the Water category during two time intervals: 1: 1985 and 1991 2: 1991 and 1999

  23. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time From: Wetland To: Wetland 0.04 0.12 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.06 0.04 Percentage of Total Change 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Time Interval: Time Interval: 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 To : Built Agriculture Range Forest Water Barren 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 From : Built Agriculture Range Forest Water Barren Solid bars: Observed transition Fabric bars: Expected transition Italic numbers: Percentage of landscape PIE: Percentage of Observed Transitions, Expected Losses and Expected Gains from the Total Change: the Wetland category during two time intervals: 1: 1985 and 1991 2: 1991 and 1999

  24. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time From: Barren 0.18 To: Barren 0.03 0.13 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.09 0.06 0.07 0.08 Percentage of Total Change 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Time Interval: Time Interval: 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 To : Built Agriculture Range Forest Water Wetland 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 From : Built Agriculture Range Forest Water Wetland Solid bars: Observed transition Fabric bars: Expected transition Italic numbers: Percentage of landscape PIE: Percentage of Observed Transitions, Expected Losses and Expected Gains from the Total Change: the Barren category during two time intervals: 1: 1985 and 1991 2: 1991 and 1999

  25. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time Matrix showing Stationarity in losing: Green shadows means observed transitions are either higher or lower than expected losses in both time intervals Redshadows means observed transitions are higher than expected losses during one time interval while lower in the other Stationary (observed > expected) Non-Stationary (1st interval: active, 2nd interval resistance) Stationary (observed < expected) Non-Stationary (1st interval: resistance 2nd interval active)

  26. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time Matrix showing Stationarity in gaining: Green shadows means observed transitions are either higher or lower than expected gains in both time intervals Red shadows means observed transitions are higher than expected losses during one time interval while lower in the other Stationary (observed > expected) Non-Stationary (1st interval: active, 2nd interval resistance) Stationary (observed < expected) Non-Stationary (1st interval: resistance 2nd interval active)

  27. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time Matrix showing the overall evidence of Stationarity: Green means transitions are consistence in losing and gaining in both time intervals Redmeans transitions are not consistence; neither in gains nor in losses over time Yellow shadows means transitions are consistence either in gains or in losses Stationary in both Gains and Losses Non-Stationary in both Gains and Losses Stationary in Losses only Stationary in Gains only

  28. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time PIE: Evidence of Stationarity over time 1991-1999 transitions 1985-1991 transitions Persistence Stationary over time Non-Stationary over time Stationary either in gains or losses

  29. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time • The cross-tabulation matrices serve as the basis for identifying Stationarity of transitions among land categories over time. • Length of time interval plays an important role in our assessment. • Examining matrices for the Plum Island Ecosystems site show that: • Most of the change is associated with the Forest and Built categories, due in part to the fact that these two are the largest categories among the three times • When Built gains, it is inclined to gain from Agriculture and Range systematically in both time intervals and is disinclined to gain from Wetland systematically. In the first time interval, when built gains, it targets forest slightly. In the second time interval, when built gains, it avoids forest slightly. • When Forest loses, it is inclined to lose to Built systematically in both time intervals. Forest is disinclined to lose to all other categories, especially Wetland. • When Built loses, it is inclined to lose to Forest slightly in the first time and systematically in the second time interval. Built is disinclined to lose to all other categories, especially Wetland. • When Forest gains, it is disinclined to gain from Built slightly in the first time and inclined to gain from Built systematically in the second time interval. • There is no Stationarity in the transitions from Built to Forest as Built loses systematically to Forest only during the second time interval. • Losses from Forest to Built are stationary while Gains in Built from Forest are not stationary.

  30. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time

  31. Identifying Stationarity of Transitions Among Land Categories Over Time Major Points • We examine transitions of land categories from three points in time to test the Stationarity of transitions. • We use Cross-tabulation matrices for the Plum Island Ecosystems site • Computer code has been created to automate this analysis

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