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ENSO Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5

ENSO Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5. Group Members Suneet Dwivedi Shailendra Rai Sudhir Kumar Singh Manish Kumar Joshi. Outline. Understanding the Climatology and Annual Cycle behaviour for Summer Monsoon Season (JJAS). Inter-annual Variability.

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ENSO Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5

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  1. ENSO Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 Group Members SuneetDwivedi ShailendraRai Sudhir Kumar Singh Manish Kumar Joshi

  2. Outline • Understanding the Climatology and Annual Cycle behaviour for Summer Monsoon Season (JJAS). • Inter-annual Variability. • Future Projection of Indian summer Monsoon. • ENSO - Monsoon Relationship.

  3. Model and Data Set Used • Region of Study 30°E-120°E & 25°S-40°N • Models • NASA_GISS • NCC_NORESM • GFDL_CM3 • Observations Sea Surface Temperature(SST): HadISST Precipitation: CMAP

  4. JJAS PREC CLIM (30°E – 120°E; 25°S – 40°N) (1980-2004) (Control Run)

  5. JJAS PREC CLIM for 30°E-120°E; 25°S-40°N (1980-2004) (Historical Run)

  6. JJAS PREC CLIM for 30°E-120°E; 25°S-40°N (25 Years) (RCP85)

  7. HadlSST (Obs) vs. NASA_GISS(Historical,Control & RCP85)

  8. HadlSST (Obs) vs. GFDL_CM3(Historical,Control & RCP85)

  9. Area Averaged Precip. for EIMR Index (70°E-110°E; 10°N-40°N)

  10. Area Averaged PrecipClim for (70°E-90°E; 15°N-25°N)

  11. JJAS Standard Deviation for 30°E-120°E; 25°S-40°N (1980-2004) (Control)

  12. JJAS Standard Deviation for 30°E-120°E; 25°S-40°N (1980-2004) (Historical)

  13. JJAS Standard Deviation for 30°E-120°E; 25°S-40°N (1980-2004) (RCP85)

  14. Difference of JJAS PrecipClim for 30°E-120°E; 25°S-40°N (1980-2004)

  15. Composite of Above & Below Average Rainfall GFDL CM3 Above and below average rainfall has been taken from model data (GFDL) Composite of Above & Below Average Rainfall HadISST Above and below average rainfall has been taken from observed data (CMAP)

  16. Composite of JJAS Precip For El Nino & La Nina Years The composites for El Nino & La Nina Years have been done from Observed Had SST & GFDL CM3

  17. Conclusion • GFDL CM3 model is able to predict the spatial pattern of summer monsoon better than other two models. • The NASA model shows underestimation of rainfall over the land points of India. • Increase in the Indian monsoon rainfall is seen in 21st century projection. • ENSO-Monsoon relationship has not been observed reasonably good in GFDL CM3 model.

  18. Thank you

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