Michael J. Prather Earth System Science Dept University of California at Irvine

1. Thoughts on Preparing for the IPCC AR5 & other Opportunities Michael J. Prather Earth System Science Dept University of California at Irvine

2. AR5

3. WG1 + WG2 (w/ WG3) Chapter: Air Quality in a Changing Atmosphere Changing global tropospheric O3 levels emissions, stratosphere, chemistry & climate change predictable out to 2030? Changing aerosols & toxics Urban environments & local emissions shifting patterns and style Vulnerable populations Damage to agriculture and ecosystems How Much of our air pollution comes from others? Core Science Elements: Climate Variability & Extremes (WG1) Atmospheric Chemistry (WG1) Human Health (WG2) Ecosystems & Agric. Health (WG2) Emissions (WG3) ARE Extreme Events changing? Michael Prather / IPCC AR5 Scoping Mtg

4. WG1 (+ WG3) Chapter: Attribution and Verification of CO2 and other GHG Changes Formally attribute changes in CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases to human/national actions past – pre-industrial to present has not been done yet Brazil proposal future – separate var.& feedbacks from anthrop emissions Verify mitigation actions (by country) as reducing GHG emissions independent test/verification of GHG mitigation How Much of CO2 rise is anthropogenic? Core Science Elements: Paleo (history/variability of GHG) C-cycle Atmospheric Chemistry Emissions (historical & WG3) LULUCF WHAT IF Annex I ceased CO2 emissions in 1990 ? Prather et al., GRL 2009 Michael Prather / IPCC AR5 Scoping Mtg

22. USG Measuring Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) Workshop February 3, 2010 Agenda 8:30 – 8:45 Welcome, Shere Abbott (OSTP) 8:45 – 9:00 Steve Koonin (DOE), Chair, outline of expectations Where are we today: The climate treaty context and reporting mechanisms 9:00 – 9:30 Richard Guldin (USDA): Land Use monitoring (Open) 9:30 – 10:00 Dina Kruger (EPA): Ground-based monitoring and reporting (Open) 10:00 – 10:20 John Holdren (OSTP): (Open) Beyond Reporting: The science of GHG, present/potential future monitoring capability 10:30 – 11:00 James Butler (NOAA): Science of the Carbon Cycle and global monitoring (Open) 11:00 – 11:30 Philip Decola (OSTP): Space based monitoring (Open) 11:30 – 12:00 Michael Prather (UCI): Report of the NAS committee (Open) 12:00 – 12:30 Jonathan Pershing (State): Treaty MRV from the State Dept. perspective (Open) Cooperative and covert monitoring 1:30 – 2:00 Randy Bell (DOE): MRV for the CTBT – an analogy for GHG (SCI) 2:00 – 2:30 Larry Kobayashi (CIA): Covert Monitoring for GHG and proxies (SCI) 2:30 – 3:00 Doug Rotman (LLNL): Data analysis for GHG emissions (SCI) The path ahead 3:15 – 3:30 Tom Prince (Caltech): Studies ongoing (JASONs charge) (SCI) 3:30 – 3:45 Paul Dimotakis (JPL): A GHGIS Concept (SCI) 3:45 – 4:30 Discussion and plan for future

23. Prather’s paraphrasing, no uncertainty attached. • US Forest Service: • “we can measure changes in carbon stocks to 3%” • US EPA: • US Mandatory Reporting Rule (reports due 31 Mar 2011) from: Electricity Generation, Aluminum Production, Ammonia Manufacturing, Cement Production, Glass Production, HCFC-22 Production, Iron & Steel Production, Lead Production, Petrochemical Production, Petroleum Refineries, Pulp & Paper Manufacturing, MSW Landfills, Petroleum Product Suppliers, Natural Gas Suppliers, Various Chemical Producers, Stationary Combustion. • GHG Information System: • We can do it! An effective monitoring/analysis system to gauge global economic and other activities, as well as assure the perception of fairness necessary for the adoption of binding CO2 reduction goals • U.S. State: • Measurement, domestic based on international guidelines • Reporting, national reports include GHG emissions and actions every two years • Verification, independent review (uni- or multi-lateral) based on international guidelines • Copenhagen Accord Interventions are mostly not direct GHG emission reductions.

24. NGGIP

25. Strategy for IPCC AR5: 2030s Air Quality Goal: Evaluate changes in AQ over several major metropolitan regions, comparing 2000s with 2030s, include uncertainties/probabilities with a traceable causal chain. Strategy: Form clusters of independent research teams (typically 3 groups) to evaluate and test sensitivity of the key processes in global change that can alter AQ and health impacts. These are, in a sense, partial-derivative evaluations that avoid the problem of having to assess many different all-encompassing climate system model runs. Use measurements & models to validate specific processes or feedbacks where possible, otherwise assess uncertainties and propagate. Tools: Use the new gridded RCP emissions of reactive species. Use near-term, high-resolution climate runs from CMIP5 archive to assess changes in global atmospheric composition & extreme events with global CTMs (WG1). Use these chemical-meteorological boundary conditions for urban simulations (WRF-Chem). Map onto populations & agriculture to integrate and assess damage. . . .

26. Strategy for IPCC AR5: 2030s Air Quality Define global, baseline changes in aerosols & tropospheric O3w.r.t. Uncertainty in RCPs 2030s emission of reactive gases & aerosols Biogenics from climate/land-use change Physical climate changes (conv, BL, T, q, …) Lightning NOx (shift to mid-latitudes, more intense with climate) STE O3 flux (& its impact on baseline tropospheric O3) Define local/regional changes in AQ w.r.t. Projected local AQMD emissions Long-range transport from beyond AQMD (atmos. paths, accumulation) Local biogenic emissions due to land-use & climate change Local photochemistry (T, q, sunlight) Regional meteorology and extreme events Exposure (AQ mapped on population, agriculture, …)

27. TE Strategy for IPCC AR5? What are the important pieces of TE science for climate strategies? How can they be ready for 2012? Walt Kelly, Earth Day, 1971