CCAWWG LTdoc: Critical capability gaps re: characterizing future climate & hydrology

1. CCAWWG LTdoc: Critical capability gaps re: characterizing future climate & hydrology Levi Brekke, Reclamation Climate/Hydrology Research Strategy Meeting – 5 February 2013, NCAR Mesa Lab, Boulder, CO

2. Defining User Needs… C-CAWWG February 2008 Workshop USGS Circular 1331 January 2009 CCAWWG User Needs Document January 2011 http://www.ccawwg.us/

3. Role of Climate Information in Water Resource Management Studies

4. Eight Technical Steps Preliminaries • Summarize Relevant Literature • Obtaining Climate Projections Data Making Planning Assumptions • Make Decisions about How to Relate Climate Projections Data to Planning • Assess Natural Systems Response • Assess Socioeconomic and Institutional Response Conducting Planning Evaluations and Supporting Decisions • Assess Systems Risk and Evaluate Alternatives • Assess and Characterize Uncertainties • Communicate Results and Uncertainties to Decision-Makers …to illustrate 

5. Eight Technical Steps for incorporating climate change Into Water Resource Management Studies

6. Prioritization of Research relative to Technical Step (Gap Category) 1 Averaged across gaps in a given Step (1 = low, 2 = medium, and 3 = high)

7. Summary of Gaps and Priorities (Steps 2 through 5 highlighted…) 2010 BCCA, 2011 WWCRA VIC-hydrology projections 2011-2013 NCAR Project #1 (Sensitivity of Impacts to Downscaling/Hydrology Methods) 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

8. Summary of Gaps and Priorities (Steps 2 through 5 highlighted…) 2011-2013 NCAR Project #1 (Sensitivity of Impacts to Downscaling/Hydrology Methods); NOAA NCPP (Dixon/Hayhoe) 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

9. Summary of Gaps and Priorities (Steps 2 through 5 highlighted…) 2006-2007 USGS/CA-DWR/SCU project (Brekke et al. 2008); tracking literature (2008-present), lots of studies/frameworks based on CMIP3 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

10. Summary of Gaps and Priorities (Steps 2 through 5 highlighted…) 2008-2009 Reclamation/CU-Boulder project (Reclamation 2009); tracking literature PACE Mahoney; 2012-2013 NOAA/CIRES project #1 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

11. Summary of Gaps and Priorities (Steps 2 through 5 highlighted…) 2009-2011 Reclamation/USGS/NWS project on models’ preferences; 2011-2013 NCAR Project #1; tracking literature 2011-2013 NCAR Project #1; tracking literature PACE Mahoney; 2012-2013 NOAA/CIRES project #1 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

12. Summary of Gaps and Priorities (Steps 2 through 5 highlighted…) 2011-2012 Reclamation/NWS (Marketa); 2011-2013 NCAR Project #1 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

13. Extras

14. Reclamation’s coalition building between Science & Management • Goals: • stay abreast of new science, inform researchers on management needs • Vehicles: • New (since 2010): • DOI Climate Science Centers (CSCs) • Landscape Conserv. Coops (LCCs) • Previous (since 2007): • Climate Change and Water Working Group, or CCAWWG • Members: NOAA, USGS, Reclamation, USACE, USEPA, FEMA, NASA • Activities: • User Needs documents (motivate research to address needs) • Training Program (build trained practitioner capacity) • Approaches Workshop (develop guidance on methodologies)

15. Summary of Gaps and Priorities 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

16. Example R&D, Addressing Gap 1.1:Regional Literature Syntheses • Description • FY2009 Reclamation Activity • Region-specific • “boiler plate” narratives for planning documentation • graphic resources for summarizing current climate projection information • Review • Internal: five regions • External: five NOAA-RISAs • Future Updates • Living document • Address “weak spots” (climate change and ecosystems, water demands, etc) http://www.usbr.gov/research/docs/climatechangelitsynthesis.pdf

17. Summary of Gaps and Priorities 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

18. Summary of Gaps and Priorities 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

19. Summary of Gaps and Priorities 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

20. Summary of Gaps and Priorities 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

21. Summary of Gaps and Priorities 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

22. Summary of Gaps and Priorities 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

23. Climate Change and Water Working Group(CCAWWG) Provide Scientific Collaborations in Support of Water Management as Climate Changes Water Supply, Hydropower, Ecosystem Needs, Recreation, Etc. Surface Water, Groundwater, Ecosystems, Etc. Flood Control, Navigation, Hydropower, Etc.. Climate Change and Variability, Climate and Weather Predictability Emergency Management, Flood Risk Assessment, Etc. Water Quality, Air Quality, Etc…

24. CCAWWG Approach • Work with the water management community to understand their needs. • Foster collaborative efforts across the federal and non-federal scientific community to address their needs in a way that capitalizes on interdisciplinary expertise, shares information, and avoids duplication.

25. CCAWWG Activity:Defining User Needs and Developing Research Strategy • Build on the foundation established by USGS Circular 1331 • Provide collaborative forum to better define the critical capability gaps that face the water management community • Facilitate collaborative research and development to address capability gaps

26. Two “User Needs” Documents • Both address improvement of knowledge, methods and tools • “LTdoc” (Assessing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Resources Planning and Management) • “STdoc” (Use of Weather and Climate Forecasts in Near Term Federal Water Resources Management)

27. LTdoc Overview:1. Introduction • Section 1.1- Background • About Reclamation and USACE • Section 1.2 – Purpose • Objectives and Strategy • Section 1.3 – Document Audience

28. USACE and Reclamation have shared interest in Western water management Fig. Elke Ochs, USACE

29. Document Objectives • Consolidate the Needs of the Water Management Community • Inform the Scientific Community • Teamwork • Flexible and Inclusive

30. Broader Strategy • Part I: Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Resources Planning and Management (LTdoc) • Part 1-A: Needs Assessment (Reclamation and USACE leads) - COMPLETE (Jan 2011) • Part I-B: Research Strategy to address User Needs (NOAA and USGS leads) – ongoing, R. Webb’s comments

31. Broader Strategy • Part II: Addressing Climate Variability in Short-Term Water Resources Planning and Management (STdoc) • Part II-A: Needs Assessment (Reclamation and USACE leads) - expected late 2011 • Part II-B: Research Strategy to address User Needs (NOAA and USGS leads) – expected early 2012

32. Audience • Primarily entities in position to steer research to address capability gaps • CCAWWG Science Agencies (NOAA, USGS) • Broader community of federal and non-federal entities in position to support research • Also the water management community on the matter of describing current capabilities, desired capabilities and gaps.

33. LTdoc Overview:2. Capabilities Assessment • Section 2.1- Longer-Term Water Systems Planning in Reclamation and USACE • Section 2.2 - Role of Climate in Longer-Term Water Systems Planning Assumptions • water resource management studies • infrastructure safety and flood risk reduction

34. USACE and Reclamation make various types of decisions affected by Climate Today’s focus…

35. LTdoc Overview:2. Capabilities Assessment • Section 2.3 - Approaches for considering climate change in longer-term planning • various level of detail, qualitative to quantitative. • Section 2.4 – Step-by-Step Capability Assessment for Quantitative Approaches • Desired capabilities • Current capabilities • Gaps (i.e. knowledge, methods, tools) • An outline of Eight Technical Steps is adopted for the purpose of outlining gaps.

36. Role of Climate Information in Infrastructure Safety & Flood Risk Studies

37. Eight Technical Steps for incorporating climate change Into Infrastructure Safety & Flood Risk Studies

38. LTdoc Overview:3. Perspectives… • Section 3.1 – Process for gathering perspectives • Targeted other water management organizations • Invited to rate gaps in terms of research priority (low, medium, high) and offer general comment • Section 3.2 – Key Themes • Section 3.3 – Perspectives Summaries by Gap • Complimented by Appendices B-D. • Section 3.4 – Additional Comments

39. Responding Entities • Perspectives invited from broad community of federal and non-federal water management entities (Section 3.1) • Comments received from: • various Reclamation region & area offices • various USACE division & district offices • 9 Non-Federal entities • ASCE, AWWA, AMWA, CA DWR, CWEMF, Family Farm Alliance, Seattle City Light, WUCA, WGA-WSWC) • 5 other Federal entities • FEMA, FERC, NOAA National Ocean Service CSC, WAPA, USEPA (ORD, OW, Region 8))

40. Summary of Gaps and Priorities (Steps 2 through 5 highlighted…) 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

41. Summary of Gaps and Priorities (Steps 2 through 5 highlighted…) 1 Color shading indicates priority rating on research to address gaps: low (yellow), medium (light orange), and high (dark orange).

42. Feedback on additional Research Areas • Monitoring and Data Collection: • Need for understanding adequacy of existing monitoring networks to support water management in a changing climate. • Making Decisions Under Uncertainty: • Need for understanding the relative merits of various tools/concepts (e.g., adaptive management, robustness, resilience, flexibility) to support water management and development under a changing climate. • Need for understanding the compatibility of these tools/concepts with current influences on management (e.g., legislation, appropriations, policy).

43. Back to the Broader Strategy:NOAA/USGS Science Response • Part I: Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Resources Planning and Management (LTdoc) • Part 1-A: Needs Assessment (Reclamation and USACE leads) - COMPLETE (Jan 2011) • Part I-B: Research Strategy to address User Needs (NOAA and USGS leads) – ongoing, R. Webb’s comments

44. LTdoc Questions? • Reclamation • Chuck Hennig (chennig@usbr.gov) • Levi Brekke (lbrekke@usbr.gov) • USACE • Kathleen White (kathleen.d.white@usace.army.mil)