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AB 1493 Technical Seminar Series 1st Tech Seminar

California Environmental Protection Agency. Air Resources Board. AB 1493 Technical Seminar Series 1st Tech Seminar. December 17, 2002. AB 1493 Technical Seminar Series. Purpose: Keep Cal EPA staff informed and offer opportunity for comments and questions AB 1493 effort is large and complex

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AB 1493 Technical Seminar Series 1st Tech Seminar

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  1. California Environmental Protection Agency Air Resources Board AB 1493Technical Seminar Series1st Tech Seminar December 17, 2002

  2. AB 1493 Technical Seminar Series • Purpose: Keep Cal EPA staff informed and offer opportunity for comments and questions • AB 1493 effort is large and complex • AB 1493 effort consists of multiple tasks • Many Cal EPA staff involved at varying levels • Technical Seminars to follow workshops

  3. Overview • Background • Framework for the Inventory • Inventory for Identified GCC Pollutants • Inventory for Other GCC Pollutants Under Consideration • Ongoing Research and Inventory Development • Additional Questions, Comments, and Discussion

  4. Background

  5. AB 1493 Findings • Global warming is a matter of increasing concern for public health and the environment in California • Reductions in the state’s water supply • Adverse health impacts • Adverse impacts on agriculture • Increased risk of forest fires • Damage to coastline • Impacts on California’s economy

  6. AB 1493 General Requirements • By January 1, 2005 Board to adopt regulations that achieve maximum feasible and cost-effective reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from motor vehicles • Report to Legislature and Governor by January 1, 2005 • Regulations may not take effect prior to January 1, 2006 • Regulations apply only to 2009 and later model years

  7. In Developing Regulations … • Consider technical feasibility • Consider impact on economy of state • Provide flexibility as to means of compliance • Grant credit for early reductions • Conduct public workshops • Communities with significant exposure to air contaminants, including communities with minority or low-income populations

  8. Regulations Shall Not Require... • Fees or taxes on vehicle, fuel or VMT • Ban on sale of any vehicle category • Reduction in vehicle weight • Limitation on or reduction of speed limit • Limitation on or reduction of VMT

  9. Process Overview Technical Assessment (Individual tasks) Staff findings/Workshops/Board update Staff Proposal Draft report Workshop Board Adoption Staff report Board hearing

  10. Milestones Detailed technical work Initial workshop (GCC inventory) December 2002 Symposium on vehicle technology March 2003 Additional workshops Various Summary workshop October 2003 Board update November 2003 Draft staff proposal Release staff draft May 2004 Workshop June 2004 Final staff proposal July 2004 Board adoption September 2004 Report to Legislature/GovernorJanuary 2005

  11. Draft Workshop Schedule

  12. Purpose of Inventory Workshop • Describe methodologies used to develop GCC emissions inventory • Present draft inventory based on assumptions and methodologies used • Provide information on comparison with other data sources • Solicit input

  13. Framework for the Global Climate Change Emissions Inventory What’s Included?

  14. Identified GCC Pollutants • Methane (CH4) • Carbon Dioxide (CO2) • Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) • Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

  15. Other GCC Pollutants under Consideration • Black Carbon • Criteria Pollutants • ROG and NOx as precursors to Ozone • CO, PM10, SOx

  16. Global Warming Potential (GWP) • Global warming comparison of different greenhouse gases relative to CO2 • Time-integrated radiative forcing of 1 kg of the gas relative to 1 kg of CO2 • High uncertainty associated with GWP estimates

  17. GWP from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report

  18. Global Warming Potential of Shorter Lived Gases and Aerosols • Uncertain how to quantify their global radiative forcing • Short lived gases (CO, O3, NOX, ROG) and aerosols vary spatially and temporally • IPCC does not attribute GWP values to gases that are short-lived and spatially inhomogeneous

  19. Aerosols and Tropospheric Ozone Contribute to Global Warming Source:James Hansen et al. 2000

  20. Aerosols Affect Global Warming • Some aerosols reflect incoming radiation (global cooling) • Black carbon (soot) absorbs radiation (global warming) • Enhanced warming when mixed with other particles Sulfate Soot Separate Particles Mixed Particles

  21. Emissions Sources • Light Duty On-Road Fleet • Passenger Cars • Light Duty Trucks up to 8500 lb. GVWR • Emissions in CY 2000 and CY 2010

  22. MethodologiesUsed to Estimate Emissions • EMFAC Emissions Model • N2O Emissions Studies • Black Carbon Emissions Studies

  23. EMFAC Model • Used to Estimate On-Road Motor Vehicle Emission Inventory • EMFAC 2002 version 2.2 is latest release • Additional information available at http://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/on-road/latest_version.htm

  24. Basis for Current N2O Inventory • ~40 Vehicles Tested in El Monte • Same Test Cycles as Criteria Pollutants • N2O was Directly Measured • Used Regression Analysis to Develop Function to Relate N2O to NOx • Applied Function to NOx Emissions from EMFAC

  25. Basis for Current Black Carbon Inventory • ARB and CRC Studies (1998) • Total of 50 light duty gas vehicles and 19 diesel passenger vehicles • We used these data to develop speciation profiles that include organic and elemental carbon fractions • Applied elemental carbon fractions to total PM from EMFAC • For global warming effect, we assume black carbon is equivalent to elemental carbon

  26. Comparative Analysis • Compared ARB draft inventory with CEC data • Good agreement for CO2 and CH4, less so for N2O • Methodologies are different • CEC disaggregates from national data • ARB data based on California specific fleet • We are continuing to evaluate CEC data and will also look at other data sets

  27. Inventory for Identified GCC Emissions

  28. CH4 Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  29. CO2 Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  30. HFC-134a Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: Insufficient data at this time

  31. N2O Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: Vehicle Testing by ARB

  32. CO2 Equivalencies

  33. Inventory for Other GCC Pollutants Under Consideration

  34. Black Carbon Emissions(Tons per Day)(exhaust only) Source: Derived from published studies and EMFAC PM data

  35. ROG Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  36. NOx Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  37. CO Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  38. PM10 Emissions (Tons per Day)(exhaust only) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  39. SOx Emissions(Tons per Day) Source: EMFAC 2002 version 2.2

  40. On-Going Research and Inventory Development • N2O • HFCs • Black Carbon

  41. N2O Emissions

  42. N2O EmissionsCurrent Database • N2O emissions inventory based on ~40 LD vehicles tested at the ARB HSL • The database does not include ‘forward-looking’ technology vehicles • Additional N2O emissions data will be collected

  43. N2O EmissionsNew Project • A new project is being initiated at the ARB’s Haagen-Smit Laboratory • Project team includes ARB staff and staff from UCLA • Testing to be part of the 17th ARB Vehicle Surveillance Project

  44. HFCEmissions

  45. HFC Emissions Sources • Two sources of HFC emissions have been identified: • Vehicle A/C system HFC emissions • HFC emissions emitted from the vehicle’s A/C system • Servicing and disposal HFC emissions • Emissions occur when a vehicle’s A/C is disturbed for servicing or at the end of the vehicle’s useful life (disposal emissions)

  46. Forthcoming Research • In October 2000 EU environment ministers directed EC to investigate MAC GCC emissions • “study and prepare measures to reduce all GCC emissions from air conditioning in vehicles” • Develop legislative proposals to reduce MAC GCC emissions

  47. Forthcoming Research (cont’d.) • Research results and preliminary proposals to be presented at upcoming international conference • MAC Summit in Brussels in February 2003 • The need for additional testing will be evaluated after the MAC Summit

  48. Black CarbonEmissions

  49. Black Carbon (BC) Emission Sources in California • Primary sources • On-road and off-road diesel • Gasoline vehicles • Residential combustion • Biomass Burning

  50. BC Emission Inventory Development • Motor vehicle BC emission estimates • Review of existing data • Compile existing MV- PM emissions data • Compile emission factors and PM speciation factors used to develop BC inventories • Estimate PM Emissions • Estimate fuel-specific (i.e., gasoline and diesel) motor vehicle emissions for climate forcing PM pollutants

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