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Anticipating Legislative Activity

Anticipating Legislative Activity. Karen Wanamaker, V.P. Industry & Govt. Affairs NWPCA. Since Jan 2009. Chrysler, GM Citigroup AIG Jan 2009: $10,628,881,485,510.23 Dec 2009: $12,144,893,016,570.46 . Carbon Tax (& Trade). ACES (American Clean Energy and Security Act) Passed in House

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Anticipating Legislative Activity

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  1. Anticipating Legislative Activity Karen Wanamaker, V.P. Industry & Govt. Affairs NWPCA

  2. Since Jan 2009 • Chrysler, GM • Citigroup • AIG • Jan 2009: $10,628,881,485,510.23 • Dec 2009: $12,144,893,016,570.46

  3. Carbon Tax (& Trade) • ACES (American Clean Energy and Security Act) • Passed in House • Passed Senate Committee • Target: Cut “Greenhouse Gases” 20% by 2020 • EPA Endangerment Ruling • Target: Companies that emit 250 tons of CO2 a year

  4. Union Strength • Congress – Employee Free Choice Act “Card Check” • Eliminate secret ballot voting, replacing it with union cards signed by a majority of employees • Binding arbitration • U.S. Department of Labor • Eliminating union reporting requirements • Hiring 250 new investigators to audit employer records for wage/overtime; injury/illness • New industrial dust standards • Plans to hire 100 new OSHA inspectors • Increase in “egregious” violations – the highest penalties

  5. ICE Increasing Workplace Audits

  6. Health Care Bill – Employer Impact • Increased Premiums • $70 billion over 10 years on insurance companies, • $2 billion-a-year tax on medical devices • Employer Mandates • $750 penalty per worker on employers of 50 or more who do not offer “federally qualified coverage” • $3,000 for each worker that qualifies for a federal insurance subsidy • Excise Tax: 40 percent on plans exceeding $8,500 (individual) and $23,000 (family) • State Taxes: Expand Medicaid • Medicare Payroll Surtax: income in excess of $200,000 (individual) and $250,000 (couple) • New limitations on flexible spending accounts (FSAs) 

  7. SBA Small Business Loans • Loan volume down 36%, 25,000 businesses • Total dollar volume dropped 27%: • Stimulus Bill: $730 million • SBA waived fees. increased guarantees; encouraged 1,200 lenders to resume lending • Wells Fargo, increased lending • Rest of top-10 cut loan volume by 30% or more. • CIT Group last year’s largest lender, edge of bankruptcy. • Last year’s 10th biggest lender was shut down by regulators in July. • Half nation's workforce on payroll of a small business • President wants “windfall profits tax” on top 20-30 banks – $120 billion revenue

  8. Economic Forecast • Consumer Spending • Flat through 3rd Q 2010 • 2% increase 4th Q • Business Investment Restrained • 1.5% to 2% – through 2nd Q • 4th Quarter 5% annual rate – 1st time in 3 ½ years • International Trade • Stable Dollar • U.S. Exports Rebound and grow by 7.2% • Labor Market Remains Weak – Job Losses Continue • 1 million jobs forecast lost by mid-2010 • Manufacturing hit hardest – 29 percent of total jobs lost • Unemployment to peak at 10.8% in 3rd Q (Individual monthly rate of 11% likely) • Initial increases will be mild • Nonfarm employment will not reach pre-recession level of 138 million until 3rd Q of 2012 (7.2%)

  9. Other Employer Issues • Paycheck Fairness Act – Passed House • R&D Tax Credit Expired (Dec) • Policy Uncertainties Impact Business Outlook

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