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Scenarios for a One Planet Economy in Europe

Scenarios for a One Planet Economy in Europe. Stuart Bond WWF-UK. Evidence. Application. Capacity. The Challenge Ahead.

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Scenarios for a One Planet Economy in Europe

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  1. Scenarios for a One Planet Economy in Europe Stuart Bond WWF-UK

  2. Evidence

  3. Application

  4. Capacity

  5. The Challenge Ahead As our consumption of resources outweighs any increases in resource efficiency, and is well beyond our planet’s ability to regenerate them or assimilate our waste, we need to develop new economic models to rapidly bring the human economy back within carrying capacity of the planet.

  6. What are scenarios? • Scenarios can be defined as ‘plausible and often simplified descriptions of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships. • (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005) • Thus a scenario consists of both the end-state and of the path by which this is reached.

  7. OPEN: EU Scenario Process • Using established methodology by UNEP • Developed in a two day workshop in September 2010 • Three stage process • Clarifying the purpose and structure of the scenario exercise • Laying the foundation for the scenarios – creating a scenario framework • Developing the narratives and policy settings • A final stage (in development) will model the scenarios with the EUREAPA tool

  8. Scenario Framework

  9. Defining the scenario characteristics

  10. Defining the scenario characteristics

  11. Scenario 1: Clever and Caring

  12. Scenario 2: Fast Forward

  13. Scenario 3: Breaking Point

  14. Scenario 4: Slow Motion

  15. Conclusions • There are likely to be different pathways to a sustainable future, which have quite different implications for society • Some scenarios may be more stable than others • The issues must be considered in an integrated way • Tradeoffs are likely to be involved • Behavioural change and social innovation is needed alongside technological innovation and policies for industrial transformation

  16. Shape the future!

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