GCOS – an all domain system: Continuous Improvement and Assessment Cycle

1. Informal Conference of South-East European NMHS Directors (ICEED)21 – 22 September 2010, Istanbul, TurkeyDr Carolin Richter, Director, Global Climate Observing System Secretariat

2. What I have learnedfrom the ICEED:long-term records fromyourregionavailable;historical data rescue effort;renovation of surface networks (automatisation); generation of high-quality (calibrated) data/observations; running of climatological programmes;projects on national climate change issues;establishment of climate change centers;domain (atmosphere, ocean, land) cross-cuttingactivities (marine institute, « ocean for tomorrow »). Good base for a GCOS Regional Action Plan.

3. GCOS – an all domain system: Continuous Improvement and Assessment Cycle

4. GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) • Atmospheric • Surface – Air temperature, Precipitation, Pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour • Upper Air – Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Temperature, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties • Composition –Carbon dioxide, Methane and other long-lived greenhouse gases (N2O, CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, SF6 and PFCs), Ozone and Aerosol, supported by their precursors (NO2, SO2, HCHO and CO). • Oceanic • Surface – Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Surface Current, Ocean colour, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Oxygen, Phytoplankton. • Sub-surface:Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Oxygen, Tracers. • Terrestrial • River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lakes, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Ice sheets, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Above ground biomass, Soil carbon, Fire disturbance, Soil moisture. Blue/bold = largely space-based

5. Implementation Plan

6. Update of the GCOS Implementation Plan • Basis: • 2004 GCOS IP (GCOS-92); 2006 Satellite Supplement (GCOS-107) • Update, not rewrite • Recognizing changes since 2004 in: • Science • Measurement Technology • Needs • International coordination (e.g., GEO/GEOSS, UN “Delivering as One”, Space agency response to climate)

7. 2010 Update of GCOS Implementation Plan Updated IP includes: • New list of ECVs (ocean oxygen, soil moisture, soil carbon), additions (precursors to aerosols & O3) and some redefined ECVs terms • Actions with agents, timelines, performance indicators, costings (extra costs to meet climate needs) • More emphasis on: • Earth System Cycles • regional and local networks • re-analysis, reprocessing and research

8. GCOS Progress Report 2004-2008

9. GCOS Progress Report 2004-2008 - Summary • Developed Countries: • improved climate observation capabilities, • limited progress in resolving financial issues related to long-term continuity • Developing Countries: • limited (in-situ) progress, with decline in some regions, • capacity building support remains small in relation to needs • Satellite agencies: • improved mission continuity and capability • increasingly meeting climate needs • Progress made, but: • Many gaps persist, • Continued engagement needed for coordinated implementation and long-term continuity Summary of progress on all 131 Actions in 2004 GCOS IP

10. The GCOS Regional Workshop Programme • Requested by UNFCCC COP-5 (1999) • Regional Action Plan for Eastern and Central Europe (Leipzig, April 2005) • Pacific Islands, 2000 • Central America, 2002 • East and South-East Asia, 2002 • South-America, 2003 • Africa, 2006

11. Action Plan Projects - 1 • 1. Establish a cooperative mechanism for GCOS in Europe (EuroGCOS) • 2. Improve the GCOS surface and upper air observing networks in Eastern and Central Europe • 3. Assess GAW needs for global and regional stations in Eastern and Central Europe • 4. Conduct training workshop for calibration lab- oratory personnel in the southern sub-region of RA VI • 5. Inventory oceanographic observing needs for the Black, Adriatic, and Baltic Seas • 6. Develop a shared common metadata infrastructure and decentralized generation of a metadatabase for climate-relevant hydrological data sets available in the Eastern and Central European region

12. Action Plan Projects - 2 • 7. Conduct data management training workshops • 8. Undertake common action in data rescue for the Eastern and Central Europe region • 9. Conduct training in the use of satellite data for climate monitoring based on the satellite application facility • 10. Build Capacity in regional downscaling and modelling through an international workshop • 11. Monitor drought through the combined use of surface and remotely-sensed data • 12. Improve mass media communication through capacity building and awareness raising

13. Conclusions • Complete success in only 1 of 12 projects (#9) • Some progress in several projects, notably #2 • Topics addressed by many projects in the ECE RAP have made some progress, but often only indirectly as a result of including a proposal in the Plan • Nevertheless, including a project in the RAP may have given topic some visibility, momentum it otherwise would not have had • Lack of key person pushing project forward may be a larger constraint than lack of funds; however, funding source essential

14. Some thoughts for discussion and some potential next steps • Directors may wish to reassess which projects are still important to undertake and/or complete • It may be useful to revise and update those projects still considered important and to provide additional detail for them • Directors may wish to add new projects to the RAP and consider it as a “living document” • A means should be found for ensuring that progress is made on important projects: who will take lead? • Potential funding sources need to be considered

17. 1. Establish a EuroGCOS • Status: After several attempts to attract interest in establishing a EuroGCOS, the authors concluded that the NMHSs of RA-VI were not interested in creating such a body • Comment: Several briefings were given and letters or emails sent, but these did not generate much interest • Proposal Authors: Stephan Roesner and Alexander Zaitsev

18. 2. Improve the GCOS surface and upper air observing networks in Eastern and Central Europe • Status: Some improvements made indirectly related to this project: • GSN stations at Bjelasnica, BIH; Tbilisi, Georgia; Chisinau, Moldova; Aragats, Armenia renovated • GUAN station at Yerevan, Armenia renovated and radiosondes supplied • World Bank Project for modernization of Roshydromet, including of both GSN and GUAN stations throughout Russia • Proposal author: Alexander Zaitsev

19. 3. Workshop to assess GAW Needs • Status: Initial workshop, which was to be organized by and for Hungary, was never organized. The reason appears to be that the Hungary Met Service was being reorganized. • Comment: Perhaps interest in this project can be renewed? • Project Author: Len Barrie, Lazlo Haspro

20. 4. Training workshop for calibration laboratory personnel • Status: The workshop, as proposed, has never taken place • Comment: The Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia has hosted two similar training workshops since 2006. These were co-organized by WMO and financed by other WMO programs. • Project author: Dusan Hrcek (retired)

21. 5. An inventory of ocean observingneeds—Black, Adriatic, Baltic Seas • Status: Project brief must still be transformed into a work programme. Operational oceanography networks in the 3 basins could be coordinated by EuroGOOS in a future project if meteorological agencies are interested and engaged. • Comment: Project proponent convinced that a joint effort between oceanography and meteorology is required for the establishment of a sustained sea basin climate observing system; oceanographic community less experienced in creating sustained networks than the meteorological community • Project author: Hans Dahlen, EuroGOOS

22. 6. Metadata infrastructure and metadatabase for climate-relevant hydrological data sets • Status: In a narrow sense, little progress; however, in a wider sense, there have been several activities of the GRDC that are regarded as important building blocks toward the goal of the project. Current head of GRDC can discuss these. • Comment: Funding issue must be clarified before undertaking an ambitious project involving many ECE countries • Project author: Thomas Maurer

23. 7. Data Management Training Workshops • Status: A number of data management workshops have taken place in the last few years, including 3 European Climate Support Networks WSs (Utrecht, 2005; Vienna, 2007; Copenhagen, 2009); also, several COST actions and training in data management related to Drought Mgmt Center for Southeast Europe (see project 11). • Comment: Most of these workshops were probably not directly motivated by the ECE RAP project, but it may still have inspired some ideas. • Project author: Sandor Szalai

24. 8. Common action on data rescue in Eastern and Central Europe • Status: No organized regional project underway • Comment: Project author reports national activities underway in Germany and Poland plus some university-based activities • Project author: M. Mietus, Poland

25. 9. Training in the use of satellite data for climate monitoring • Status: Three training workshops held in Zagreb, Croatia between December 2006 and November 2008. Workshops hosted by DHMZ and co-organized by DHMZ and EUMETSAT and the Climate SAF. All workshops were successfully completed and much appreciated; a 4th workshop for more advanced users of satellite data held at the DWD training school in Langen in 2009. • Comment: There is a continuing need for training for beginners; at 64th EUMETSAT Council meeting special emphasis placed upon training needs of southeastern European countries • Project authors: Ivan Cacic and Lothar Schueller

26. 10. Capacity building in regional downscaling and modeling • Status: Project has not yet been done • Comment: The project author believes there is still strong interest in this project and the prospects for finding funds for it are good. One possibility is to incorporate this project in the Regional Climate Outlook Forum, e.g., by bringing together experts from the modeling community, long-range forecasters, and end users • Project authors: Milan Dacic and Danica Spasova

27. 11. Drought monitoring using surface and remotely-sensed data • Status: Various activities related to drought monitoring have been initiated, e.g., establishment of a drought management center for SE Europe, European Drought Center established as a virtual center. • Comment: The specific project has not gotten attention, but elements of the project are contained in other initiatives. • Project author: Sandor Szalai

28. 12. Mass media communication • Status: Project author organizes media sessions at annual EMS meetings; EMS offered to support a communication workshop for climatologists and Slovenia offered facilities, but workshop was cancelled due to lack of interest • Comment: Project author still interested in media workshop, but desires co-organizers and indication of interest before attempting to organize another workshop • Project author: Tanja Cegnar, Slovenia