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A CASE-BASED REASONING MODEL FOR STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING

A CASE-BASED REASONING MODEL FOR STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING. CASE-BASED REASONING. CBR IS A METHOD OF SOLVING A CURRENT PROBLEM BY ANALOGIZING THE SOLUTIONS TO PREVIOUS SIMILAR PROBLEMS.

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A CASE-BASED REASONING MODEL FOR STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING

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  1. A CASE-BASED REASONING MODEL FOR STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING

  2. CASE-BASED REASONING • CBR IS A METHOD OF SOLVING A CURRENT PROBLEM BY ANALOGIZING THE SOLUTIONS TO PREVIOUS SIMILAR PROBLEMS. • A CBR SYSTEM DRAWS ITS KNOWLEDGE FROM A REASONABLY LARGE SET OF CASES CONTAINED IN THE CASE LIBRARY OF PAST PROBLEMS RATHER THAN ONLY FROM A SET OF RULES. • IT SOLVES NEW PROBLEMS BY ADAPTING SOLUTIONS THAT WERE USED TO SOLVE OLD PROBLEMS.

  3. CBR COMPRISES ESSENTIALLY 3 TASKS, • RETRIEVES ONE OR A SMALL SET OF THE MOST SIMILAR CASES. • SOLVES THE NEW SOLUTION BY REUSING OR REVISING FORMER SOLUTIONS • RETAINS THE NEW CASE AND SOLUTION AS PART OF PAST CASES FOR FUTURE RETRIEVALS.

  4. PROCESS OF CBR SIMILARITY MEASURING MODULE CASE LIBRARY: REPOSITORY OF PAST CASES AND MODULES CASE RETRIEVE CASE MATCH AND RETRIEVAL MODULE CASE RETAIN CASE REUSE CASE INDEXING MODULE CASE ADAPTATION MODULE PROPOSED SOLUTION NEW PROBLEM CASE REVISE REVISED SOLUTION

  5. CASEBID – BID DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM (CHUA ET AL., 2001) WHY THEY USED CBR FOR BID DECISIONS? • BIDDING BEHAVIOURS ARE AFFECTED BY MANY INTERRELATED FACTORS-COMPLEX • UNSTRUCTURED • NO CLEAR RULES

  6. BID MARKUP MARKUP PREFERENCE TRADE-OFF PROBABILITY OF WINNING COMPANY’S POSITION IN BIDDING RISK MARGIN NEED FOR WORK COMPETITION EXTERNAL FACTORS: 1. JOB RELATED (NATURE OF WORK ETC.) 2. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS (ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ETC.) INTERNAL (FIRM-RELATED FACTORS (EXPERIENCE ETC.) BID REASONING MODEL IN CASEBID

  7. ABOUT CASEBID: • IMPORTANCE WEIGHTS OF FACTORS WITH RESPECT TO COMPETITION – SURVEY • IMPORTANCE WEIGHTS OF FACTORS WITH RESPECT TO RISK – SURVEY • INDEXING TREES ARE CONSTRUCTED • 30 CASES DEFINED • BUILT BY USING RECALL • A BID MARKUP OPTIMIZATION MODEL

  8. STRUCTURE OF CASEBID UNIT PRICE: BID METHOD COMPLETENESS OF SPEC. DELAY/SHORTAGE OF PAYMENT BID: AVAILABILITY OF OTHER PROJECTS DATE OF BIDDING BID RESULT RATIO OF ACTUAL COST AND ESTIMATED COST COMPETENCE OF ESTIMATORS COMPETITOR’S BID (LINK VARIABLE) INTERPRETATION OF SPECIFICATION DEGREE OF TECHNOLOGICAL DIFFICULTY EXPERTISE IN MANAGEMENT OWNER LOW BID MARKUP PROJECT PUBLIC EXPOSURE AND PRESTIGE PROJECT TIMESCALE AND PENALTY FOR NON-COMPLETION SAFETY HAZARDS SIMILAR EXPERIENCE SIZE OF PROJECT TIME ALLOWED FOR BID PREPARATION TYPE OF CONTRACT TYPE OF PROJECT COMPETITION RATING LUMP SUM: CASH FLOW REQUIREMENT COMPLETENESS OF SPEC. RESOURCE PRICE FLUCTUATION OPT. MARKUP RISK RATING DESIGN BUILD: ADEQUACY OF PRICE INFORMATION AVAILABILITY OF STAFF BID METHOD CURRENT WORKLOAD TIME ALLOWED FOR BID PREPARATION

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