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Ulrich Damrath

About common plots for precipitation. Ulrich Damrath. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, all centers. UD: About common plots for precipitation. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.8 mm /24h. UD: About common plots for precipitation.

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Ulrich Damrath

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  1. About common plots for precipitation Ulrich Damrath

  2. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, all centers UD: About common plots for precipitation

  3. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.8 mm /24h UD: About common plots for precipitation

  4. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, COSMO-GR and COSMO-EU UD: About common plots for precipitation

  5. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.8 mm /24h, COSMO-GR and COSMO-EU UD: About common plots for precipitation

  6. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, all centers UD: About common plots for precipitation

  7. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, COSMO-GR and COSMO-EU UD: About common plots for precipitation

  8. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 0.8 mm /24h, all centers UD: About common plots for precipitation

  9. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 0.8 mm /24h, COSMO-GR and COSMO-EU UD: About common plots for precipitation

  10. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, all centers UD: About common plots for precipitation

  11. Ranks of QPF, common area DJF 2012/2013 UD: About common plots for precipitation

  12. Common area DJF 2012/2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, all centers, with confidence intervals 5-95% (bootstrap results with assumption of Gaussian distribution of bootstrapped elements) UD: About common plots for precipitation

  13. Ranks of QPF, common area DJF 2012/2013with confidence intervals 5-95% UD: About common plots for precipitation

  14. Ranks of QPF, common area DJF 2012/2013with confidence intervals 5-95% UD: About common plots for precipitation

  15. Ranks of QPF, common area DJF 2012/2013ONLY ONE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE!!! UD: About common plots for precipitation

  16. Ranks of QPF, common area MAM 2013with confidence intervals 5-95% UD: About common plots for precipitation

  17. Ranks of QPF, common area MAM 2013with confidence intervals 5-95% UD: About common plots for precipitation

  18. Ranks of QPF, common area MAM 2013with confidence intervals 5-95% (bootstrap results with assumption of Gaussian distribution of bootstrapped elements) UD: About common plots for precipitation

  19. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 10 mm /6h, all centerswith confidence intervals 5-95% (bootstrap results with assumption of Gaussian distribution of bootstrapped elements) UD: About common plots for precipitation

  20. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 10 mm /6h, all centerswith confidence intervals 5-95% (bootstrap results with assumption of Gaussian distribution of bootstrapped elements) Relatestoquantiles 2.5% and 97.5% UD: About common plots for precipitation

  21. Ranks of QPF, common area MAM 2013(bootstrap results with quantiles 5 and 95% of bootstrapped elements) UD: About common plots for precipitation

  22. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 10 mm /6h, all centers(bootstrap results with quantiles 5 and 95% of bootstrapped elements) UD: About common plots for precipitation

  23. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 10 mm /6h, all centers(bootstrap results with quantiles 5 and 95% of bootstrapped elements) Relatestothe significancelevel 10% of a Gaussian distribution UD: About common plots for precipitation

  24. Current COSMO versions (excerpt from the website) UD: About common plots for precipitation

  25. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 0.2 mm /6h, all centers UD: About common plots for precipitation

  26. Common area MAM 2013, threshold 10 mm /6h, all centers UD: About common plots for precipitation

  27. Numberofpoints in the 15km-radius variesfrom 9 to 14 forthefinemesh (not shownhere) andfrom 1 to 4 forthecoarsemesh How the 15km-radius-criteria works UD: About common plots for precipitation

  28. 10637 MAM 2012 UD: About common plots for precipitation

  29. 10637 MAM 2013 UD: About common plots for precipitation

  30. What did we see? • For all model version a distinct diurnal cycle of the FBI for 6h-accululated precipitation amounts is detected. • No surprise because of column made precipitation • A spin up problem for COSMO-I7 and COSMO-PL for DJF 2012/2013 • May be explained by using of pure GME BC and initialisation in COSMO-PL • and (perhaps???) the position of common area near boundary for COSMO-I7 • Not visible for MAM 2013 • FBIs for COSMO-PL during MAM 2013: • For low precipitation amounts FBIs are in the order of one and clearly below the values of other COSMO installations. • For high precipitation amounts COSMO-PL-results are clearly above the values of all other model versions. • This can be partly explained by the coarser grid of COSMO-Pl compared to the other versions. • A rank of QPF quality can be detected with statistical significance only for low precipitation amounts. • For some high precipitation amounts a significant difference between model quality can be derived in some cases. It is probably not significant in the sense of science. • The question about the order of ETSes for different accumulation periods seems to be open. UD: About common plots for precipitation

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