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Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future

Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future. March 2007 Steven Specker President and CEO. Presentation Objective. Provide a factual framework for discussing: Generation technologies and investment decisions in a world with carbon-constraints

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Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future

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  1. Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future March 2007 Steven SpeckerPresident and CEO

  2. Presentation Objective Provide a factual framework for discussing: • Generation technologies and investment decisions in a world with carbon-constraints • Technical feasibility of using these technologies to reduce U.S. electric sector CO2 emissions

  3. Example: Coal Generation Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 2010 - 2015 IGCC 90 80 70 Adjust for CO2 costs: 0.8 Tons CO2/MWh X $50/Ton = +$40/MWh 60 PC 50 Determine LCOE(capital cost, O&M, fuel) 40 Rev. 01/16/07 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  4. Comparative Costs in 2010-2015 Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 IGCC 90 PC Wind@29% CF 80 NGCC@$6 70 Biomass 60 Nuclear 50 40 Rev. 01/16/07 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  5. Near-Term Implications • New advanced light water reactors have cost advantage, but unlikely to enter operation until after 2015 • Absent nuclear, most new base-load generation will utilize fossil technologies (NGCC, PC, and IGCC) without CO2 capture and storage. • IGCC at present 10-20% higher than PC • Choice of PC vs. NGCC will depend on natural gas prices • Renewables unlikely to extend beyond mandated requirementdue to poor comparative economics Very limited opportunity for significant economic CO2 reduction!!!

  6. Advanced Coal with CO2 Capture Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 Rev. 1Q007 2020 - 2025 90 IGCC w/o cap 80 Advanced PC with advanced capture 70 PC w/o cap 60 IGCC with capture 50 40 Technology “Horserace”…choice may be fuel or operating strategy dependent 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  7. Comparative Costs in 2020-2025 Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 Aggressive investments in RD&D can yield a low-cost, low-carbon portfolio of electricity technology options 90 80 70 NGCC@$6 PC w/capture 60 50 Nuclear Biomass Wind @40% 40 IGCC w/capture Rev. 01/16/07 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton

  8. Presentation Objective Provide a factual framework for discussing: • Generation technologies and investment decisions in a world with carbon-constraints • Technical feasibility of using these technologies to reduce U.S. electric sector CO2 emissions

  9. U.S. Electricity Sector CO2 Emissions • Base case from EIA “Annual Energy Outlook 2007” • includes some efficiency, new renewables, new nuclear • assumes no CO2 capture or storage due to high costs  Using EPRI deployment assumptions, calculate change in CO2 relative to EIA base case

  10. Technology Deployment Targets EPRI analysis targets do not reflect economic considerations, or potential regulatory and siting constraints.

  11. Benefit of Achieving Efficiency Target 9% reduction in base load by 2030 EIA Base Case 2007

  12. Benefit of Achieving Renewables Target 50 GWe new renewables by 2020; +2 GWe/yr thereafter EIA Base Case 2007

  13. Benefit of Achieving Nuclear Generation Target 24 GWe new nuclear by 2020; +4 GWe/yr thereafter EIA Base Case 2007

  14. Benefit of Achieving Advanced Coal Generation Target 46% efficiency by 2020, 49% efficiency by 2030 EIA Base Case 2007

  15. Benefit of Achieving the CCS Target After 2020, all new coal plants capture and store 90% of their CO2 emissions EIA Base Case 2007

  16. Benefit of Achieving PHEV and DER Targets 5% shift to DER from base load in 2030 PHEV sales = 10% by 2017; 30% by 2027 EIA Base Case 2007

  17. CO2 Reductions … Technical Potential* * Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible. EIA Base Case 2007

  18. Total U.S. Electricity Generation: 2005 EIA 3826 TWh

  19. Total U.S. Electricity Generation: 2030 EIA Base Case 5406 TWh

  20. Total U.S. Electricity Generation: 2030 Advanced Technology Targets 5401 TWh

  21. Key Technology Challenges • Smart grids and communications infrastructures to enable end-use efficiency and demand response, distributed generation, and PHEVs. • A grid infrastructure with the capacity and reliability to operate with 20-30% intermittent renewables in specific regions. • Significant expansion of nuclear energy enabled by continued safe and economic operation of existing nuclear fleet; and a viable strategy for managing spent fuel. • Commercial-scale coal-based generation units operating with 90+% CO2 capture and storage in a variety of geologies. The U.S. electricity sector will need ALL of the following technology advancements to significantly reduce CO2 emissions over the coming decades:

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