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Short-term Migration Research Update

This presentation provides an overview of the progress, definition development, and next steps in short-term migration research. It also discusses user requirements, measuring increased international migration, and understanding reasons for the increase. The presentation covers the uses of short-term migration data at national and local levels.

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Short-term Migration Research Update

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  1. Update on Short-term Migration ResearchJonathan Smith & Amanda Sharfman

  2. Presentation Overview • Context • Progress to date • Definition development • Next steps

  3. User Requirements • Measuring increased international migration • Understanding reasons for increase • Uses: • National • Local

  4. Current Statistical Product Set Long-Term Migration Estimates • Used in mid-year population estimates & projections • Total International Migration uses many sources • Principally International Passenger Survey (IPS) based Estimates of Visits • Used in Balance of Payments • Based on IPS • Counts visits rather than visitors

  5. International Passenger Survey (IPS) • Passengers surveyed as they enter/leave the UK • Covers principal airports, sea routes and Channel Tunnel • 250,000 face-to-face interviews • Approximately 1% of sample are ‘long-term’ migrants • ‘Intended Flow’ – based on migrants’ intentions at beginning of trip • ‘Completed Flow’ – based on migrants’ actual behaviour when returning

  6. Measuring migration using IPS • Long term migration • Migrant may not return home • Based on intentions • Short term migration • Migrant will complete their stay within 12 months • Can be based on: • Intentions – more timely • Completions – more accurate

  7. Definition overview UN definition of a short-term migrant "A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least 3 months but less than a year (12 months) except in cases where the movement to that country is for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage“ • Two dimensions required - Length of stay - Reason for visit

  8. Definition development • Visitors / Temporary residents / Usual residents • Length of stay • 0-12 months • 1-12 months • 3-12 months • Reasons for visit • Workers • Students • ‘Other visitors’ UN definition reasons for visit

  9. Feedback from Feasibility Report • UN definition • Central Government • Broaden to 0-12 month stays • Specific interest in workers and UN definition • Local Government • Broadening reasons for visit • Interest in broadening to include 1-12 month stays

  10. UN definition based short-term migration in-flow estimates, England & Wales (mid03-mid05)

  11. ‘Other visits’ in-flow estimates, England & Wales (mid03-mid05)

  12. Proportion of in-flow moves by reason, England & Wales (mid03-mid05)

  13. Summary of proposed definitions • UN definition • Workers • Students • ‘Other visits’ • Two length of stay periods • 1-12 months • 3-12 months

  14. Next steps • Research report (October 2007) • Proposed definitions • England & Wales flow estimates mid04 and mid05 • England & Wales stock estimates mid04 and mid05 • Methodology for estimating stocks • Sub-national methodology • Timeliness ‘Experimental Statistics’

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