Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 February 2, 2012

2. Class News • Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 • 2008 and 2010 ClassOn Line: • http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

3. The Current Climate (Released Monthly) • Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center. • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html • State of the Climate: Global • Plant Hardiness - 2012

4. Some Project Ideas • Education • Strategies when policy requires teaching “denial” • Incorporation into engineering curriculum • Earth science in K-12; admission to college • Cities (esp Great Lakes) Adaptation • Climate in the Keystone Pipeline • Great Lakes • Seasonal forecast information / Long-term projections / Use of information / Effectiveness of communication efforts

5. Today • Scientific investigation of the Earth’s climate: Foundational information • Feedbacks • Incremental • Arctic / Ocean • Internal / Natural Variability

6. Increase greenhouse gases reduces cooling rate  Warming Cloud feedback? ATMOSPHERE Aerosols cool? Water vapor feedback accelerates warming OCEAN ICE Cloud feedback? Ice-albedo feedback accelerates warming LAND Changes in land use impact absorption and reflection The Earth System SUN Solar variability

7. Abrupt Climate Change • Most scenarios of abrupt climate change are related to a phase change in some way or another. Does the albedo change quickly? Is there a change in the fresh water in the ocean? Is there a release of gas stored in something that is frozen? • It is also possible to define rapid changes in ocean (land?) ecosystems, that leads to composition changes in the atmosphere. Biology – sensitive to temperature, water, salinity, ph, etc. Lamont-Doherty: Abrupt Climate Change

8. Let’s look at just the last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior. { Note that on this scale, with more time resolution, that the fluctuations in temperature and the fluctuations in CO2 do not match as obviously as in the long, 350,000 year, record. This is a span of time with very “stable” climate, by historical records. Stable meaning, low variability. Also it has been warm.

9. Sources of internal variability • This is natural variability. • Solar variability • Volcanic activity • Internal “dynamics” • Atmosphere - Weather • Ocean • Atmosphere-ocean interactions • Atmosphere-ocean-land-ice interactions • That does not mean that these modes of variability remain constant as the climate changes.

10. Conservation equation • Could you write the conservation equation, at least symbolically, for surface temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide.

11. Energy doesn’t just come and go • The atmosphere and ocean are fluids. The horizontal distribution of energy, leads to making these fluids move. That is “weather” and ocean currents and the “general circulation.” • “General circulation” is the accumulated effect of individual events.

12. Transport of heat poleward by atmosphere and oceans • This is an important part of the climate system • One could stand back far enough in space, average over time, and perhaps average this away. • This is, however, weather ... and weather is how we feel the climate day to day • It is likely to change because we are changing the distribution of average heating

13. While Building the Radiative Balance Figure Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc. RS Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space 1)The absorbed solar energy is converted to terrestrial thermal energy. 2)Then it is redistributed by the atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, life. CLOUD ATMOSPHERE SURFACE

14. After the redistribution of energy, the emission of infrared radiation from the Earth is ~ equal from all latitudes. Because of tilt of Earth, Solar Radiation is absorbed preferentially at the Equator (low latitudes). Another important consideration. Latitudinal dependence of heating and cooling Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space CLOUD ATMOSPHERE SURFACE South Pole (Cooling) Equator (On average heating) North Pole (Cooling)

15. Transfer of heat north and south is an important element of the climate at the Earth’s surface. Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc. Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space This predisposition for parts of the globe to be warm and parts of the globe to be cold means that measuring global warming is difficult. Some parts of the world could, in fact, get cooler because this warm and cool pattern could be changed. What is a scenario for record cold temperatures in northern Mexico? CLOUD ATMOSPHERE heat is moved to poles cool is moved towards equator cool is moved towards equator SURFACE This is a transfer. Both ocean and atmosphere are important!

16. The Thermohaline Circulation (THC)(Global, organized circulation in the ocean)(The “conveyer belt”, “rivers” within the ocean) Blue shading, low salt Green shading, high salt Where there is localized exchange of water between the surface and the deep ocean (convection) Warm, surface currents. Cold, bottom currents.

17. Ocean Surface Currents(From Steven Dutch, U Wisconsin, Green Bay) Good Material at National Earth Science Teachers Association

18. Hurricanes and heat: Sea Surface Temperature

19. Weather Moves Heat from Tropics to the Poles HURRICANES

20. Mid-latitude cyclones & Heat

21. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

22. Wave Motion and Climate

23. Internal Variability? • Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices • There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. • El Nino – La Nina • What is El Nino • North Atlantic Oscillation • Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation • Annular Mode • Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic • Pacific Decadal Oscillation

24. Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: El-Nino

25. Changes during El Nino

26. Times series of El Nino (NOAA CPC) EL NINO LA NINA OCEAN TEMPERATURE EASTERN PACIFIC ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE DIFFERENCE

27. Some good El Nino Information • NOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Nino / La Nina • NOAA CPC: Excellent slides on El Nino • This is a hard to get to educational tour. This gets you in the middle and note navigation buttons on the bottom.

28. GISS Temperature 2002 1997-98 El Nino

29. January 2011 Temperature Anomalies

30. Internal Variability? • Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices • There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. • El Nino – La Nina • What is El Nino • North Atlantic Oscillation • Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation • Annular Mode • Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic • Pacific Decadal Oscillation

31. North Atlantic Oscillation Negative Phase U.S. East, Cold Air Outbreaks, Snow (dry) Europe North, Cold; South, Wet Greenland, Warm Positive Phase U.S. East, Mild and Wet Europe North, Warm and Wet Canada North & Greenland, Cold and Dry

32. North Atlantic Oscillation Phase(from Climate Prediction Center)

33. January 2011 Temperature Anomalies

34. Internal Variability? • Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices • There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. • El Nino – La Nina • What is El Nino • North Atlantic Oscillation • Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation • Annular Mode • Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic • Pacific Decadal Oscillation

35. Pacific Decadal Oscillation • Does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation operate regularly lasting 20-30 years, and does southern California experience droughts during that period? • The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is one of several “oscillations” that are important to weather and climate. • Some attributes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

36. Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Basics Colors: Sea Surface Temperature difference from long term average. Arrows: Stress on the ocean surface caused by winds Cool here Warm here Better version of figure from JISAO

37. Some information on Pacific Decadal Oscillation • Joint Institute for Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO): • Pacific Decadal Oscillation • Climate Prediction Center (CPC): • 90 Day Outlook Summary • Weather and Climate Linkage • National Climatic Data Center (NCDC): • Decadal Oscillations • Review Paper from Rood Class References • Mantua and Hare (2002) J of Oceanography

38. Bumps and Wiggles • Rood’s Series on Bumps and Wiggles

39. Lean and Rind, Next 20 years

40. A Scientific Challenge

41. An interesting time to study? GISS Temperature 2002 1997-98 El Nino

42. A couple of papers • Bengstsson_20th_Century_Climate_JClimate_2004 • Johannssen_Arctic_20th_Century_Tellus_2004

43. An Example at the End of Ice Age

44. What is a stable climate? LIQUID - ICE NOAA Paleoclimate Schlumberger

45. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? Younger Dryas POSSIBLE EVIDENCE OF CHANGE IN OCEAN CIRCULATION

46. Does Raise the Question of Abrupt Climate Change

47. Abrupt climate change • The predictions and observations so far are either in the sense of: • Relatively small changes in the dynamic balance of the climate system • Incremental changes to the stable climate. • What about “abrupt” climate change?

48. Note to professor: Force students to think and speak • What might cause something to change abruptly in the climate system? • Lamont-Doherty: Abrupt Climate Change • NAS: Abrupt Climate Change • Wunderground.com: Abrupt Climate Change

49. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUN EARTH PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE