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Projections of Future Climate from the GCMs Peter J. Sousounis Geography Department

Projections of Future Climate from the GCMs Peter J. Sousounis Geography Department Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI. Climate Scenarios - Temperature Changes. CANADIAN. HADLEY. NW. SW/California. Great Plains/Rockies. Heartland/Great Lakes. SE. NE. US.

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Projections of Future Climate from the GCMs Peter J. Sousounis Geography Department

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  1. Projections of Future Climate from the GCMs Peter J. Sousounis Geography Department Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI

  2. Climate Scenarios - Temperature Changes CANADIAN HADLEY NW SW/California Great Plains/Rockies Heartland/Great Lakes SE NE US Both of the GCMs used for the Great Lakes Regional Assessment indicate a warmer future climate by the end of this century. The Canadian Model becomes considerably warmer than the Hadley Model in many US regions.

  3. Monthly Thickness - Future Conditions CANADIAN HADLEY Thickness of the lower half of the atmosphere reflects surface temperature in a large scale way. The Canadian Model shows significant increases in thickness throughout the year by the end of this century. The Hadley Model shows overall smaller changes than the Canadian Model and greater increases in fall and winter than in spring and summer.

  4. Interannual Variability in Hot Days for SW Michigan The number of extremely hot (90+ F) days will likely increase considerably by the end of this century.

  5. Changes in the Growing Season… The growing season will likely increase by 30 to 50 days but interannual variability may still constrain safe planting and harvest dates.

  6. Climate Scenarios - Precipitation Changes CANADIAN HADLEY NW SW/California Great Plains/Rockies Heartland/Great Lakes SE NE US Both of the GCMs indicate more precipitation in the future. The Canadian Model is drier than the Hadley Model in eastern US regions and wetter in the southwestern and mountain regions.

  7. Monthly Precipitation - Future Conditions CANADIAN HADLEY The Canadian Model shows an increase of ~8% in annual precipitation by the end of this century. Most of the increase occurs during Jan-Jun. The Hadley Model shows an increase of 12%. Most of the increase occurs during Jul-Dec.

  8. Why Should Precipitation Increase…? • More frequent storms • Slower storms • Stronger storms • Moister storms • More efficient storms

  9. Annual Precip Category Changes for Detroit, MI CAN 1900 CAN 2000 DAYS PCN D D CAT (mm) DAYS PCN (MM) DAYS PCN (MM) 0.25-1.25 88 58.08 84 56.77 1.26-6.35 101 303.97 98 299.61 6.36-12.7 31 269.35 30 257.92 -7 -17 12.8-25.4 18 326.14 20 345.89 > 25.4 8 337.07 11 471.97 5 155 HAD 1900 HAD 2000 DAYS PCN D D CAT (mm) DAYS PCN (MM) DAYS PCN (MM) 0.25-1.25 67 45.18 62 40.64 1.26-6.35 90 270.91 81 246.57 6.36-12.7 31 276.86 30 264.85 -15 -41 12.8-25.4 19 314.12 23 401.92 > 25.4 2 59.79 6 178.28 8 206

  10. Interannual Variability in Hvy Precip for Detroit, MI Both models suggest an increase in interannual variability - sCAN increases from 6 to 8 days and sHAD increases from 3 to 6 days.

  11. Interannual Variability in Hvy Precip for Detroit, MI Both models suggest an increase in interannual variability - sCAN increases from 160 to 240 mm and sHAD increases from 68 to 133 mm.

  12. Precipitation - Canadian Extreme PCN Pattern The current observed pattern for extreme precipitation shows a precip max of 22 mm with a 1006 hPa low centered 200 km to the west, suggesting these events are warm frontal. CURRENT FUTURE Both models show similar patterns for the current and future climate scenarios but with lows farther to the southwest. The Canadian Model shows increases from 40 to 47 mm…

  13. Precipitation - Hadley Extreme PCN Pattern CURRENT FUTURE The Hadley Model shows a precipitation increase from 23 to 29 mm. The heavier precipitation will likely result from slightly more intense lows and sharper warm fronts.

  14. Monthly Cyclones - Future Climate CANADIAN HADLEY Both models show a decrease in cyclones and a reduction in associated windspeed. The Canadian Model shows a big decrease in cyclones from late spring/ mid summer and from late fall/ mid winter. The Hadley Model shows a big decrease in cyclones in winter and a bigger decrease in spring.

  15. Monthly Winds - Future Conditions CANADIAN HADLEY Windspeeds in general will likely decrease. The reason for this is that melting polar ice will result in greater warming at high latitudes, a reduced pole-to-equator temperature gradient, and weaker jet streams.

  16. Future Winter Flow Patterns… CURRENT FUTURE CANADIAN HADLEY Both models suggest more frequent and intense El Ninos - especially the Hadley Model…

  17. Summary • Climate change in the Great Lakes region will be manifested by changes in winds and storm tracks as well as by changes in temperature and precipitation. • Extreme hot days will occur at least twice as frequently, extreme precipitation events will increase in frequency and intensity. The number of cyclones will decrease by ~15% and windspeeds will decrease by 10%. • Interannual variability will also likely increase. • The magnitudes of the climate changes will have significant impacts on agricultural yields and practices.

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