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Recent WGSR discussions concerning baseline scenarios for the Gothenburg protocol revision

Recent WGSR discussions concerning baseline scenarios for the Gothenburg protocol revision Martin Adams Air and Climate Change Programme European Environment Agency. Planned time schedule - TFIAM. TFIAM 2010 Feb: Baseline proposal May: Analyses of targets options

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Recent WGSR discussions concerning baseline scenarios for the Gothenburg protocol revision

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  1. Recent WGSR discussions concerning baseline scenarios for the Gothenburg protocol revision Martin Adams Air and Climate Change Programme European Environment Agency

  2. Planned time schedule - TFIAM TFIAM 2010 Feb: Baseline proposal May: Analyses of targets options Oct: Sensitivity analysis incl. climate forcing 2011 Jan/Feb: Scenario runs May: Final runs Oct: Report WGSR 2010 Apr: Baseline accepted Sept: Guidance on targets Dec(EB): Guidance on targets 2011 April: Draft Protocol Sept: Final Protocol Dec(EB): Protocol adopted R. Maas. 2010.

  3. Open questions and uncertainties • The future climate policy? – eg EU: the current 20% or a 30% reduction target? (late May/early June, European Commission communication on the 30% option) • What will be the effect of the economic crisis? • PRIMES 2009 includes the economic crisis, current climate/energy measures legislation 2009. But double-sip recession? • 12 national baseline projections have been submitted

  4. Data sources of national projections: energy Amann et al. 2010.

  5. Data sources national projections: Agriculture Amann et al. 2010.

  6. TFIAM’s Baseline considerations • Baseline assumptions will first of all affect the costs of an abatement strategy, but can also affect the distribution of efforts. • National baselines show a large variety in assumptions on economic growth, oil- and carbon prices and domestic climate policy. • Further efforts to improve the available baselines would not reduce basic uncertainties in future economic developments and climate and energy policies, but only delay the revision of the Protocol. • The PRIMES 2009 baseline provides a coherent perspective comprising current legislation etc, although some countries have different expectations on future national energy and climate policies. • Still the PRIMES 2009 baseline would offer a more equal starting point for defining further measures than the national baselines. R. Maas, 2010.

  7. Comparison of assumed GDP growthbetween 2005 and 2020 Amann et al. 2010.

  8. Comparison of oil prices assumed in national scenarios for 2020 Amann et al. 2010.

  9. Comparison of 2020 carbon prices assumed National scenario vs. PRIMES C&E package Amann et al. 2010.

  10. Baseline emissions projections for 2020PROVISIONAL RESULTS Amann et al. 2010.

  11. Baseline emission projections for 2020SO2 PROVISIONAL RESULTS Amann et al. 2010.

  12. Baseline emission projections for 2020NOx PROVISIONAL RESULTS Amann et al. 2010.

  13. Baseline emission projections for 2020NH3 PROVISIONAL RESULTS Amann et al. 2010.

  14. Baseline emission projections for 2020VOC PROVISIONAL RESULTS Amann et al. 2010.

  15. Baseline emission projections for 2020PM2.5 PROVISIONAL RESULTS Amann et al. 2010.

  16. IMPACTS Loss in statistical life expectancyPROVISIONAL RESULTS Amann et al. 2010.

  17. IMPACTS Excess of CL for acidification in forest soils PROVISIONAL RESULTS Amann et al. 2010.

  18. WGSR recommendations • For the baseline Parties agreed to use Primes2009 for all countries (if available) & Capri agriculture for the baseline. • IEA/FAO data would be used for others eg EECCA countries. (NO, CH – national projections) • National projections supplemented with PRIMES2008 will be used to provide a higher-growth scenario/sensitivity run. • Additional Primes policy scenarios (eg 30% GHG, 20% renewables etc) will inform the later scenario work. Meeting report www.unece.org/env/lrtap/WorkingGroups/wgs/docs46th%20session.htm

  19. Other issues TFIAM’s 2010-2011 workplan also includes: • Analyse further how uncertainties could be reflected in policy through flexibility mechanisms • Target setting options • Not only focus on 2020, but to make full use of the 2030 data provided by PRIMES 2009 and the World Energy Outlook Next meeting 17-19 May, Dublin

  20. References M. Amann, J. Borken, J. Cofala, Z. Klimont. Progress in the development of national baseline scenarios. Working Group on Strategies, Geneva, April 12-15, 2010 R. Maas. Report to WGSR from Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling 37th meeting (Geneva, 22−24 February 2010) http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/tfiam

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