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Preparations for the review of the Gothenburg Protocol Report to the WGSR September 2006

Preparations for the review of the Gothenburg Protocol Report to the WGSR September 2006. Markus Amann et al., EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM). Tasks for the review. Development of baseline projections for emissions

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Preparations for the review of the Gothenburg Protocol Report to the WGSR September 2006

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  1. Preparations for the review of the Gothenburg ProtocolReport to the WGSR September 2006 Markus Amann et al., EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)

  2. Tasks for the review • Development of baseline projections for emissions • Based on national projections of (energy and agricultural) activity projections • Compilation of input data • For EU countries • For non-EU countries • Assessment of health and environmental impacts

  3. EU countries: NEC baseline projections (EU-25 + BUL+ROM+TK+CRO+N+CH) • Series of bilateral consultations with 22 Parties in 2005 • Review of emission inventories, projections, current legislation • Energy projections: • National projections from 21 countries • PRIMES scenario for €20 carbon price • Agricultural projections • National projections from 17 countries • CAPRI scenario for the mid-term CAP reform • Presentation in Brussels at Conference on September 29. 2006

  4. NEC baseline emission projections (EU-25, National projections, relative to the 2000 levels)

  5. NEC baseline emission projections (EU-25,National projections, relative to the 2000 levels)

  6. Comparison of NEC and CAFE baseline emissionsEU-25, 2020

  7. Comparison of NEC and CAFE energy projectionsEU-25, 2020

  8. CO2 emissions of the NEC baseline projections EU-25, 2020 Nationalenergy projections PRIMES €20scenario

  9. Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO2 mitigation (EU-25, 2020) PRIMES €20scenario Nationalenergy projections

  10. Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO2 mitigation (EU-25, 2020)

  11. Costs of CAFE TSAP proposal Air pollution control costsfor current legislation 2020(SO2, NOx, PM)as a function of CO2 mitigation (EU-25, 2020)

  12. Input data for non-EU countries • Bilateral consultations held with: • Norway, (Switzerland) • Russia, Ukraine (funded by DG-ENV) • Belarus • Draft input data documented in CIAM report 1/2006 • Feedbacks from national experts invited up to end of 2006 • Updated projections in early 2007

  13. Sources of energy projections for non-EU countries

  14. Draft projections of emissions for non-EU countries(relative to the 2000 levels)

  15. Further time table for the Gothenburg review • December 2006: Deadline for comments on input data for non-EU countries • May 2007: Draft assessment of environmental impacts presented to TFIAM • August 2006: Report to the EMEP Steering Body • September 2007: Report to WGSR

  16. Technical potentials for further PM2.5 reductionson top of “Current legislation” in 2020 [in kt] from sources which are included in existing Protocols

  17. The EU-LIFE project EC4MACS:European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies • EU funding for a consortium of integrated assessment modelling teams to prepare and maintain modelling tools for air quality and climate policy development • IIASA (CIAM) - Coordinator • MNP/RIVM (CCE) - critical loads data • NTUA Athens – energy projections • Uni Bonn et al. – agricultural projections • LTUA Thessaloniki – transport modelling • AEAT et al. – benefit assessment • MET.NO (MSC-W) – dispersion modelling • Supported by additional contracts for JRC Ispra and Sevilla • Project time frame 2007-2012 • ~4.5 million € EU contribution (on co-funding basis)

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