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Requirement for North America THORPEX Science Plan

USWRP. Requirement for North America THORPEX Science Plan. Dr. Louis Uccellini Director NWS/National Centers for Environmental Prediction North American Science Steering Committee Meeting University of Maryland, August 14-15 2003. THORPEX Program Structure. THORPEX CAS. World

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Requirement for North America THORPEX Science Plan

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  1. USWRP Requirement for North America THORPEX Science Plan Dr. Louis Uccellini Director NWS/National Centers for Environmental Prediction North American Science Steering Committee Meeting University of Maryland, August 14-15 2003

  2. THORPEX Program Structure THORPEXCAS World Meteorological Organization THORPEX ICSC THORPEX IPO WWRP /AREP THORPEX ISSC WGNE /WCRP USWRP IWG CANADA ASC EUSSC S H NASSC • Commission on Atmospheric Science (CAS) • International Core Steering Committee (ICSC) • International Program Office (IPO) • International Science Steering Committee (ISSC) • North American Science Steering Committee (NASSC) • United States Weather Research Program (USWRP) NASA NSF NOAA NAVY Others

  3. USWRP USWRP Foci Air Quality Surface Transportation Future Foci Extended/QPF Forecasts Warm Season (IHOP) Cool Season Hydromet Test Bed Hurricane at Landfall CAMEX CBLAST JHT Primary USWRP Science Foci IPO Lead Scientist Societal Impacts Science Processes Coordination IPO and USWRP Program Requirements & Support Optimal Mix THORPEX WRF/DTC/OTC JCSDA/SPoRT

  4. North American Ensemble Forecast System • Joint Canadian-U.S. Ensemble Forecast System • Currently in Planning Stage • Research to Operations • Merge two ensembles with  60 members • Produce “seamless” forecast out to 15 days for NA • Accelerate improvements in probabalistic forecasting

  5. North American Ensemble Forecast System(Project Elements) CORE PROJECT • Exchange data • Statistically post-process both sets of ensembles • Bias removal • Forecast anomalies (downscaling) • Merge ensembles – includes lag averaging • Evaluate added value • Develop new products • Potential Applications • Targeted observations • Improved data assimilation

  6. “Requirements” for NA THORPEX Science Plan • Clear need for NA science plan within organizational construct of the THORPEX program • Basis for participation of U.S. science/research agencies (through USWRP-IWG) • Key to defining research basis for improving 15 day operational forecasting based on NAEFS USWRP

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