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National Centre for Research on Europe

National Centre for Research on Europe. The effects of EU Enlargement on New Zealand: A Preliminary Assessment. By Matthew Gibbons. Past Expansions: costs in the 1970s Loss of access to the UK market. Depressed world prices for agricultural products. Past Expansions: benefits in the 1970s

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National Centre for Research on Europe

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  1. National Centre for Research on Europe The effects of EU Enlargement on New Zealand: A Preliminary Assessment. By Matthew Gibbons

  2. Past Expansions: costs in the 1970s • Loss of access to the UK market. • Depressed world prices for agricultural products.

  3. Past Expansions: benefits in the 1970s • Diversifying markets and products beneficial for NZ. • Declining sales in UK before 1973. • UK argued for CAP reform. • EU expansion increased opportunities elsewhere in the EU for NZ. • End of tariff preferences for the UK made cheaper imports from other countries possible.

  4. New Zealand’s trade with the new EU members • Exports have included wool, hides, frozen meat, dairy products. • Historically exports have been small per capita, with the exceptions of Cyprus and Malta. • Imports include machinery and electrical equipment.

  5. Economic significance of the new members • Increase EU’s GDP by 8%, population by 17%. • Can be expected to catch up with existing EU members over time. • Some are at similar income levels to New Zealand.

  6. Opportunities for agricultural products • EU’s agricultural production up. • Proportion of workforce in agriculture and dependence on CAP up. • However, CAP reform has been prompted by the expansion of the EU. • New members mainly produce cereals (wheat, rye). • When they do produce the same goods as NZ quality and food hygiene is often poor.

  7. Dairying - Poland is a long-term potential threat. • Beef – Potential for growth in NZ’s exports. • Sheep meat – Little is consumed. • Fruit and vegetables, fish, venison, beverages – More consumed as countries become richer. • Agri-tech – Possibilities exist. • Tourism – no direct airlinks.

  8. Opportunities for imports • New Zealand is currently upgrading its infrastructure. • Possibilities include railway and electrical equipment.

  9. Need to deepen relationship • Danger of being ignored and/or overlooked. • Links with Poland (WWII), Hungary (refugees), Cyprus and Malta (Commonwealth members). • Relationships with other new EU members are weaker. • Perception only interested in agriculture, work only through the UK, EU gains little from relationship.

  10. Diplomatic issues • Where to place embassies and diplomats –Poland, Slovenia, Austria, Belgium, or France?

  11. Current Research • Diversification of exports • Survey of exporters to the EU • Dairying and meat exports • EU and NZ’s infrastructure.

  12. 1. Diversification of exports • Holmes and Pearson (1991) predicted that “expanding markets will be available in Europe for a wide range of primary products, manufactures and services”. This article examines how much New Zealand’s trade with the EU has diversified since they made this statement. • Got export data 1991-2004 for processing.

  13. 2. Survey of exporters to the EU • Currently I am drawing the questionnaire up. • Questions on experiences in EU-15 and plans for new EU members. • If you have questions you particularly want asked let me know.

  14. Conclusion • Past enlargements have had both positive and negative effects for NZ. • Effects of current EU enlargement are likely to be relatively positive for NZ. • Opportunities exist.

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