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The Next 100 Years Projection of Debris in GEO

The Next 100 Years Projection of Debris in GEO. Space Systems Dynamics Laboratory Yuya Mimasu 1st March, 2007. Contents. Background Objective Modeling Concept Projection Scenario Result of Projection Summary. Background.

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The Next 100 Years Projection of Debris in GEO

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  1. The Next 100 Years Projection of Debris in GEO Space Systems Dynamics Laboratory Yuya Mimasu 1st March, 2007

  2. Contents • Background • Objective • Modeling Concept • Projection Scenario • Result of Projection • Summary

  3. Background Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) is the most valuable resource, and many satellites have been launched into this region. At present, Collision Hazard due to traffic jam is a serious issue. Mitigation Measures • Measurement • Modeling • Protection • Mitigation Debris Environment around Earth

  4. Objective • We project the next 100 years by repeating insertion of the 8-year traffic for the years 1998 through 2005 as one cycle of projection by using GEODEEM. GEODEEM isGEODebris Environmental Evolutionary Model developed at Kyushu University.

  5. Modeling Concept Traffic at 1st January 2006 Insertion Data Initial Condition Annual Number of Actual Launches in 1998 Explosions Annual Number of Actual Disposed Satellites in 1998 Collisions Traffic at 2007 Annual Number of Actual Launches in 1999 Explosions Annual Number of Actual Disposed Satellites in 1999 Collisions Traffic at 2008 Explosion is occurred because of residual propellant or some failures. Repeat during 100 years .....

  6. Category • Space objects are categorized according to their longitude stability as shown in following table.

  7. Accumulation Process Disposed Satellites Normal Process Post Mission Abandoned Satellites Operational Satellites Launch Orbit more than 300 km above GEO Rocket Bodies Earth Geostationary Ring

  8. Accumulation Process Disposed Satellites Collision or Explosion Abandoned Satellites Operational Satellites Launch Orbit more than 300 km above GEO Rocket Bodies Earth Geostationary Ring

  9. Initial Population Population of each category at initial state X1: Operational Satellites X2: Abandoned Satellites X3: Disposed Satellites X4: Rocket Bodies X5: Fragments crossing GEO X6: Fragments staying above/under GEO

  10. Propagator • The propagator is adopted to the Debris • Perturbations • Earth’s gravitational Attraction • Third Body (Sun and Moon) • Solar Radiation Pressure • Solution Analytical Solution

  11. Collision Probability • Collision Probability is calculated by using following equation. Dt: time that the object spends in the sphere p1 , p2: probabilities that objects will be in sphere during one revolution P: orbital period, V: volume of sphere DV: volume of overlapping portion A12: sum of representative area of two objects,

  12. Projection Scenario Assumption • Economical and Political situation does not change from present state. • The increasing tendency of space objects will not change in 100 years. Scenario Project from 1st January 2006 with 8-year traffic for the years 1998 through 2005 as one cycle of projection. Business as usual

  13. Results of Projection The Number of Collisions in 30 Monte Carlo run Projection without Disposal Projection with Actual Disposal

  14. Results of Projection The Average Number of Explosions in 30 Monte Carlo run Projection without Disposal Projection with Actual Disposal

  15. Results of Projection Population of Space Objects in Several Categories Projection without Disposal Projection with Actual Disposal

  16. Results of Projection Distribution of Population of Space objects > 10 cm Projection without Disposal Projection with Actual Disposal

  17. Summary • Modification in this study • Update Initial Condition. • Update Launch History. • Inserted Traffic of Actual Disposed Satellite. • Conclusions • Although the disposed satellites lead to a decrease of population on GEO and collision probability, the population of debris do not change dramatically. • To decrease the hazard of debris, we need to decrease the number of explosions.

  18. ご清聴ありがとうございました． (Goseityou Arigatou Gozaimasita)

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