Strategy of electric power industry development in Russia for the period up to 2030

1. Strategy of electric power industry development in Russia for the period up to 2030 Director of OJSC «ENIN», Academician of RAS Eduard P. Volkov 1

2. Main purposes of strategy • Providing the energy security of the country. • Increasing of the efficiencyof production, transport, electricity distribution and usage up to the level of developed world countries. • Providing the reliability of Russian power companies (UES of Russia) and the reliability of electricity supply of consumers on the level of developed countries. • Fulfillment of environmental standards in accordance with the adopted international commitments and national standards.

3. Basic economic conditions:forecasted growth of GDP by 2030 in 4.4 timesinvariant with 2000 TWhandin 6.4 times invariant with 3000 TWh A concept of accelerated development is adopted for 3000 TWh – a formation of the world leadership in production of the materials of ligh-level processingin the basis of high-technological conversion of naturalandpower resources

4. Levels of inside electricity consumption for 2000 GWh Concept of MEDT 2020 2030 Scenario 1 1410-1430 1770-1790 Scenario 2, 3 1630-1660 2150-2190 Variant 3 с 1740-1770 2400

5. Heat productionby centralized sourcesfor 2000 TWh

6. Production and export of gas and petroleum

7. Price conditionsat the fuel markets:the world trend of oil price growth by 2030 up to 80-100 $ per barrelandoutput of inner gas prices for the equilibrium with Europe up to 2010 will change sharply the fuel supply of electric power industry

8. Hydro energy potential

9. Resources ofnon-traditionalrenewable sources in Russia By approximate evaluation the geothermal energy resourcesin the upper width with a depth up to 3 kmconstitute about 180 trillion tce, while the natural resources for utilization - about 20 trillion tce. The evaluation of resources of primary development of thermal energy waters and steam hydrotherms using the geocirculating technology was assumed to be the economic potential.

10. New technologies • Energy-technology plants. • Solid fuel gasification and use of combined cycle. • Nuclear-hydrogen power engineering. • Controlled transmission lines. • Technologies using the superconductivity phenomenon.

11. Installed capacity N, GWElectricity generationE, TWh/year Installed capacity of electric power stations (N, GW) and electricity generation (Е, billionkWh/year) in Russia (basic variant with 2000 TWh) 1990 – 2005 2005 – 2030 (forecasting) N Е Е N 3000 3000 400 400 2500 2500 300 300 2000 2000 1500 1500 200 200 1000 1000 100 100 500 500 0 0 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

13. Electricity generation, TWh Installed capacity, GWт 2005 2010 2020 2030 Development of generating capacities and electricity productionatelectric power stations of different typesin 2005 – 2030 (basicvariant)

14. TPP NPS HES&WPP Structure of electricity generation byelectric power plants of different types, %(basic variant) 2030 2020 2080 TWhin 2030 2010 2005 952 TWhin 2005

15. Consumption of primary energy resources by electric power stations (basic variant)

16. Development of UES electric grids (1) • UES and powerful regional power systems are mainly constructed as the balanced ones. • Current density in the newly designed transmission lines must be decreased in 1.5-2 timed for decreasing the availableconsiderable electricity losses in the electric networks. • The controlled devices will be used in the necessary amounts (controlledshunting reactors, thyristor static compensators, longitudinal capacity compensation, unified regulators of power flow, phase shifters, STATCOMs; asynchronous communication interface adapters – dc links, electromechanical converters; energy storages). • The main direction of Russian UES development is a strengthening of the structure of its main electrical grid. The capacity of intersystem ties between IPSmust be substantially increased. • The superconducting devices, first of all, cables, energy storage, current-limiting devices will be used in prospect.

17. Development of UES electric grids (2) • Creation of East-West bridgein some directions (Northern, Central, Southern). • Integration of UES of Russiawith the unified energy systems of other countries, formation in prospect of powerful electric energy chain: Japan – China – Siberia – Kazakhstan – European part of Russia – other CIS countries – European countriesand creationof Eurasian super power unification. The capacities of intersystem ties in the formingEurasian power unificationmust be sufficientfor providing the security of combined operation of power systems forming it, provide the economically sound exchanges and the efficiency of functioning the formed common electricity market at Eurasian continent. • Energy support of globalinfrastructural projects of gas supply, oil supply, railway and automobile networks.

18. Evaluation of the volumes of constructing the transmission lines on 110 kVand higherfor the period up to 2030 in variantwith 2000 TWh , thous. km

19. Layout of main inside and outside intersystem connection of UES of Russia

20. Estimates of necessarydemands of investmentsin developmentof electric power industry (billon $), for variant with 2000 TWh

21. Main expected results of realizing strategy with 2000 TWh • Technical updating and renovationof electric power industry on the basis of new technologies. • Increasing of power supply reliability • Provision of general balancing of UES. • Creation of mechanisms for sustainable development of electric power industry. • Integration of electric power industry of Russia in Eurasian super power unification. • Energy support of global infrastructural projects of gas- and oil-supply systems, railway and automobile networks. • Reliable power supply of large cities, huge towns and industrial centers.

22. ENIN ENIN Thank you very much for your attention volkov@eninnet.ru 7-495-955-3100