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Global crude oil peak started 2005

Global crude oil peak started 2005. @ crudeoilpeak www.crudeoilpeak.info. Matt Mushalik mushalik@tpg.com.au. HUBBERT CURVE. Production. Time. P = 2Pm/( l+COSH (-b(t-tm))). Classical definition of peak oil: maximum oil production in time series. PEAKING AS PROCESS. Reality:

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Global crude oil peak started 2005

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  1. Global crude oil peak started 2005 @crudeoilpeak www.crudeoilpeak.info Matt Mushalik mushalik@tpg.com.au

  2. HUBBERT CURVE Production Time P = 2Pm/(l+COSH(-b(t-tm))) • Classical definition of peak oil: • maximum oil production in time series

  3. PEAKING AS PROCESS • Reality: • peak oil is a complex process, • not an event limitedto the year of global maximum production

  4. In fields: (North Sea offshore) Shale oil (Bakken) Country level (UK) Region (Middle East, South East Asia) World Peak PEAKING IN DIFFERENT AREAS

  5. North Sea offshore Field: Forties

  6. North Sea offshore Field: Buzzard https://www.og.decc.gov.uk/pprs/full_production.htm

  7. shale oil (tight oil)

  8. shale oil (tight oil)

  9. Peak oil at country level

  10. Peak oil in region

  11. Middle East

  12. Saudi Arabia

  13. INCREMENTAL CRUDE OIL Peak - WORLD

  14. WEO 2012 from IEA

  15. Laherrere (2004/2013)

  16. BITRE 117 and EIA Actual

  17. BITRE 117 - methodology 1

  18. BITRE 117 - methodology 2

  19. Iran Egypt Syria Sudan Libya Yemen Indonesia PEAKS with geopolitical implications

  20. IraN

  21. BITRE 117 vs LAHERRERE

  22. OPEC Production & Depletion

  23. Iraq - OIL PRODUCTION & FORECASTS

  24. Egypt – GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

  25. Egypt – Production & Consumption

  26. Egypt – Population SCENARIOS

  27. Syria

  28. Sudan

  29. Libya – Production Profiles

  30. Libya – Oil PRODUCTION & Forecast

  31. Yemen – C&C

  32. Yemen – Supply & CONSUMPTION

  33. Indonesia – PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION

  34. Indonesia – PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION

  35. Peak exports

  36. Global remaining reserves

  37. Australian OIL PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION

  38. Australian CRUDE OIL IMPORTS

  39. Australian SUPPLIES We have 3 types of petrol: • Direct Imports • Refined from imported crude • Refined from indigenous crude

  40. Australian Imports

  41. Australian LPG imports

  42. Australian DEPENDENCY ON MIDDLE EAST 37%

  43. US demand peak

  44. Oil and recessions

  45. US remains CRUDE oil importer

  46. US shale oil will peak

  47. Shale oil decline 6% per month

  48. Eagle ford production profile

  49. US natural gas – energy revolution?

  50. Oil and debt

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