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Decision Points – 1 st Decade

Decision Points – 1 st Decade. Internal Factors Discoveries

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Decision Points – 1 st Decade

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  1. Decision Points – 1st Decade • Internal Factors • Discoveries • Use results on anthropogenic vs natural attribution of change to re-prioritize the observations of climate "forcing" factors like gases and aerosols.  Depending on success of A-train, Black Carbon, and Carbon Cycle missions: re-assess aerosol and carbon in particular. • Use results on climate sensitivity to re-prioritize the observations of climate feedback factors like clouds.  For example, passive radiometer cloud properties like MODIS and VIIRS may be insufficient to monitor cloud vertical structure: active instrument follow-ons to CALIPSO/CloudSat may be required. • Use results of new climate model uncertainty and observation requirements to optimize the next phase of the merged research/operational climate observing system.  This will affect a wide range of climate observations. • Decide if precipitation observations on GPM and soil moisture measurements on HYDROS are capable of detection of decadal changes in precip and soil moisture.  decide on impact of river runoff measurement, surface latent heat fluxes, and snowpack in closing the water cycle. • Decide on relative importance of abrupt climate change observations (ice sheet sea level effects and deep ocean circulation changes) versus climate forcing and sensitivity observations.  This will have a large impact on prediction capabilties in Decade 2. • External Factors • Vary observational decisions based on operational and international observation plans.  Note that for long-term climate observations: independent observations are required for all key variables to allow scientific independent verification of observed "surprises".

  2. Possible Decision Points – 2nd Decade • External Factors • Administration increased/decreased interest in space activities • Heightened public concern over the effects of climate change on air quality, fresh water availability, or biodiversity • Heightened public concern over natural disasters • Responsibility for Natural hazards or Climate Change assigned to one agency in the US • Missions for hand-off to NOAA for 2025 timeframe must be established • Change observation requirements based on plans of operational and international observation systems. • Internal Factors • Discoveries • Discovery of life on another body in the solar system • Discovery of an Earth-sized planet around a nearby star • The effects of clouds and surface hydrologic processes on Earth’s climate are understood • The response of ecosystems, land cover and biogeochemical cycles to and their effects on environmental change are traceable • The linkages between climate variations and global ocean circulation are resolved • The connections between atmospheric trace constituents and global environmental change are understood • The effects of natural variability and human-induced change on sea level can be estimated • Change observation requirements based on new climate model capabilities • NASA Drivers • Exploration activities shift from robotic missions to human missions • Change observation requirements based on second decade observational successes and failures

  3. Possible Decision Points – 3rd Decade • External Factors • US initiative to colonize Mars “by the end of this century” • Society starts to plan major population shifts to zones of greater habitability • Society requests solutions for climate control • Internal Factors • Discoveries • Weather forecasting capability is significantly improved • Climate variability and change are understood • The impact of changes in atmospheric composition on ozone, climate and global air quality are readily predictable • Future changes to carbon cycle dynamics and ecosystems are easily projected • Changes in water cycle dynamics can be forecast • We can predict and mitigate natural hazards through our knowledge of Earth surface change • NASA Drivers • Exploration activities shift from manned Lunar missions to Mars missions • IEOS decision to migrate from LEO observations to MEO to increase coverage, reduce cost • Update observation requirements based on societal decision making requirements andnarrowing their future prediction uncertainties

  4. a b c Timeline Flexibility • Several factors can influence Earth science program timeline • Timeline accommodates for flexibility • Impacting event causes a decision point, at which there are several options: • Focus altered within exploration or awareness portions of cluster • New cluster • Order of clusters changed New Perspective New Awareness Exploration Awareness Perspective Impacting event Exploration Awareness Perspective Exploration Awareness TBD Exploration Awareness Perspective Time 2025 2005 2015 2035

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