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The Tevatron through FY11 DOE, April 22nd

The Tevatron through FY11 DOE, April 22nd. Dmitri Denisov / Darien Wood (D0) Jacobo Konigsberg / Rob Roser (CDF). 1. Outline. Perspective Highlights Outlook. Perspective. CDF ♦ 15 Countries ♦ 63 Institutions ♦ 602 authors. D0 ♦ 18 Countries ♦ 90 Institutions ♦ 533 Authors. 4.

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The Tevatron through FY11 DOE, April 22nd

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  1. The Tevatron through FY11DOE, April 22nd Dmitri Denisov / Darien Wood (D0) Jacobo Konigsberg / Rob Roser (CDF) 1

  2. Outline • Perspective • Highlights • Outlook

  3. Perspective

  4. CDF ♦15 Countries ♦63 Institutions ♦602 authors D0 ♦18 Countries ♦90 Institutions ♦533 Authors 4

  5. 8 years Record peak inst. luminosity 3.6 E 1032 cm–2 s–1 Record luminosity/week 73 pb-1 Record luminosity/month 250 pb-1 Total Luminosity delivered 6.5 fb-1 Run 2 Luminosity Progress L 3.5 E 1032 > 2 fb-1 delivered in 2008 ! 100 times more data than used for Top quark discovery ! L

  6. FY11 Luminosity Projections [delivered] ~12 fb-1 12 fb-1 delivered doubles the dataset up to now and results in analyses with about 10 fb-1 We are here Integrated luminosity (fb-1) Results up to ~ 5 fb-1 by Summer 09 - - - - - - - - - FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

  7. New Physics? • Discoveries • Open new research • Increase precision • Test for New Physics The Tevatron: A Luminosity Story Jets Heavy Flavor L W Z probability Wg Zg WW Single Top tt WZ ZZ ~9 orders of magnitude! Higgs process

  8. The Tevatron Physics Program • Unique window into the unknown • Searches for Supersymmetry, Extra Dimensions, other Exotica • Still at the Energy Frontier • Probing the Terascale as luminosity increases • The Standard Model Higgs is now within reach ! • Precision, new research and discoveries • Mixing, CKM Constraints, and CP-Violation • Heavy Flavor Spectroscopy • New Heavy Baryon states • Tests of QCD and HF production • Top-quark and W-boson Masses • Top quark properties • Di-Boson production and SM Gauge Couplings • New exclusive/diffractive processes We’re addressing questions of fundamental importance

  9. Physics Production • Stable tools and an excellent understanding of the detectors and the data • Productivity is higher than ever • Near 100 new results between Summer08 and Winter09 [CDF+D0] • Tevatron results are dominant in HEP conferences • Still in some areas we are only scratching the surface • Much potential for further precision, reach and discovery • We need to keep exploiting the data from all angles

  10. New Results Since Summer’08 ~ 100 new results

  11. Tevatron Physics Impact • Nearly 100 journal publications last year alone • About 60 Ph.D.’s / year over the last few years • About 3500 physicists have participated on the CDF and D0 experiments D0 CDF

  12. Highlights & Outlook

  13. 2004 2006 2008 ZZ ==> mu,mu,mu,mu Discoveries: rare SM processes Diboson production: more luminosity allows access to smaller cross sections

  14. Single Top Physics Program Test s vs t [new physics] Vtb [precision] Lifetime [new physics] Recent discovery: single top

  15. Observation of new heavy baryons dsb ddb ssb uub 2006 2007 2008

  16. With more data : emergence of a new particle 2.7 fb-1 Y(4140) unknown composition CDF 2009 These new discoveries yield a few events/fb-1 ==> new areas of research @ 10 fb-1

  17. Precision: CPV phase Sin(2βs) Combination of CDF and D0 results is incompatible with the SM at the 2.2-sigma level

  18. Precision ==> Discovery possibilities 5-sigma probability vs βs L More luminosity buys more probability for discovery and increases the sensitivity range

  19. Precision: Mtop At ~10 fb-1 the top mass uncertainty is expected below 1 GeV Mtop = 173.1 ± 0.6(stat) ± 1.1(syst) GeV/c2 Legacy measurement: nearly impossible to beat at a hadron collider

  20. 200 pb-1 (e) D0 Run 2 (e) 1000 pb-1 Precision: Mw Next round CDF @ 2fb-1 expect <30 MeV uncertainty ! Tevatron experiments are now best in world, will remain so for a long, long, time

  21. Precision ==> Higgs constraints New ! With 10 fb-1 If dMw=15 MeV and dMtop=1 GeV [for Mw= 80.400] expect MH = 71 + 24 - 19 GeV   MH < 117 GeV @ 95% CL  ! Expected now with all constraints : MH = 90 +36-27 GeV MH < 163 GeV @ 95 % CL

  22. The Higgs Search • The SM Higgs particle [if it exists] is being produced NOW at the Tevatron ! - we have enough energy • Just not that often & it’s buried in “backgrounds” • It’s a story of luminosity, passion, persistence and luck • We know how to look for it - an we are in fact closing in ! • Over the last years there’s been a dramatic infusion of people, effort and ideas, aimed at finding the Higgs

  23. Higgs boson at the Tevatron PRODUCTION • Gluon fusion is the dominant production mode: σ ~1.1-0.1 pb • W/Z associated production next most frequent mode: σ ~0.2-0.01 pb DECAY Low mass High mass

  24. Higgs at the Tevatron Total H → WW→lvlv WH → lνbb ZH →ννbb ZH → llbb WH → lνbb ZH →ννbb ZH → llbb ~6 months data H → WW → lνlν (double including D0)

  25. Most recent combination CDF + D0 2.4xSM 160 GeV < MH < 170 GeV is excluded at 95% CL !

  26. no words needed

  27. Many channels/experiment CDF + D0: Up to 70 distinct final states !

  28. Higgs Search Progress Orange band = 1.5 [top - achieved ] to 2.25 [bottom] expected improvement factors Progress through analysis improvements and through more luminosity

  29. and some luck 2-sigma Higgs reach with FY11 running and continued analysis improvement [bottom orange band] 3-sigma ~12 fb-1 L

  30. Are these just statistical fluctuations or the beginning of a beautiful friendship Discovery Watch L • Several results show discrepancies with the SM 30

  31. Physics Goals • Operational goals • Summer’09: analyze ~5 fb-1 • This will be a major milestone! • Analyze ~2 fb-1 more each year for key results • Challenging [we have been doing ~1/2 of that] • Program goals • Extract as much juice from the data as possible • Precision, new processes & measurements, New Physics, Higgs • Revisit program • What should go on with increasing lum • What should wrap up • Easy access to tools • Need to make sure teams are in place for key analyses

  32. Summary and Closing Remarks

  33. Summary • The Tevatron program continues to be remarkably successful • A Legacy of discoveries and extraordinary results • So far only 1 to 4 fb-1 of data analyzed • This could increase by factors of 3 to 10 with data from running through 2011 • Exciting potential for future Tevatron discoveries • The Higgs is our domain for a while 33

  34. Remarks on extended running • Physics Motivation • Many ways to slice this pie: • Doubling the dataset • Discovery potential • Uniqueness of some physics at the Tevatron • Legacy measurements • Higgs possibilities • Do not shut down an excellent program until truly obsolete • Recognition that a realistic LHC path to [relevant] physics is not necessarily immediate • Let’s decide to run through FY11 as the baseline plan

  35. Fermilab’s plans Physics Motivation LHC progress Funding Running in 2011 Collab/ people 35

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