Cumulative effects and the PCH

1. Cumulative effects and the PCH Presentation to the PCMB Oct. 28 2011 Don Russell

2. What are we currently doing? • Input refinements: • Can now generate forage quality, forage quantity, diet, activity from annual climate data • Have a working version of scenario developer – includes development and climate change • Working on building in ability to move animals into different regions, habitats and re-generating diet and activity • Model refinements: • Allow for multi-year runs • Allow us to model “risk’ – build in natural variability – stochastic • Exercising the model • Comparing output to available validation data • How do initial body weight and current year’s weather interact with climate change and development exposure – see examples

3. Near future tasks • Resource Selection Function: • A way to allocate animals into habitats depending on development, climate • Chris Johnson, UNBC, has vegetation map and footprint map that Shawn provided • We will work with him to set up the analysis • Caribou calculator • Work with Craig Nicolsen to translate output from Energy-protein model to feed into population dynamics and harvest

4. Scenario Builder Initial body condition Reproductive status Climate change Current years weather Development

5. HOW IS WEATHER HANDLED IN THE MODEL? Model user can now pick any year, decade, best, worst, year for the PCH 1979-2009 Current years weather • accumulated GDD June 15 to July15 in previous year - dictates cottongrass flowering – impacts diet • insect insects for warbles and mosquitoes (based on temp/wind) – impacts activity • Mushroom index – biomass of mushrooms – based on previous May rainfall and current June rainfall – impacts diet, late summer protein source

6. SETTING INITIAL CONDITIONS • target birth weight is maximum birth weight of calf if resources unlimited • body weight and proportion fat used to calculate initial condition of cow • Can set if cow is pregnant or lactating January 1 , whether she lactates at calf’s birth and whether she gets pregnant next fall

7. HOW DOES THE MODEL CURRENTLY MODEL IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE • Current simplistic set up allows user to set • Change in summer temperature • Change in May/June precipitation • Change in winter snow • Change in spring temperature • These changes impact food quality, quantity, diet, activity,

8. HOW DOES THE MODEL HANDLE DEVELOPMENT • Currently we can look at up to 5 generic developments • for each development can set time period impacted • for each development can set impact on activity • currently we don’t handle shifts in habitat (see RSF)

9. Exercising the model: Modelling probability of pregnancy in fall Climate change Animal condition Current years weather Fall condition Probability of pregnancy development

10. Ran the model 16 times Runs: Poor and good initial body weight Best and worst current years weather Climate change and no climate change Development and no development Then: Converted fall body weight to probability of pregnancy

11. OUTPUT FROM THE RUNS ALL RUNS 73 GOOD CLIMATE 86 WORST CLIMATE 56 NO-DEV98 DEV 78 Hi BODY WT 65 LO BODY WT 51 NO-CC 100 CC 97 NO-CC 80 CC 76 NO-DEV 73 DEV 59 NO DEV 56 DEV 45

12. Need to spend time with PCMB or sub-group of PCMB? • Need to work with the PCMB to develop practical tools and applications from this project. • What tools does the Board want developed to better deal with development scenarios and learn about the role of possible future climate • Is there a role in this CE project to play in the annual HMP deliberations – climate is updated and added annually • What research needs can be identified from this process to gain more confidence in dealing with development and climate change.