Chris West, Director, UK Climate Impacts Programme

1. UKCIP08 Scenarios, Climate Change Impacts in Scotland, and Adapting to the Impacts Sustainable Development Commission for Scotland, 29 October 2008, Edinburgh Chris West, Director, UK Climate Impacts Programme

2. CCIRG91 CCIRG96 UKCIP98 UKCIP02 UKCIP08 UKCIPNext Scenarios Background • UK climate scenarios produced since 1991 • UKCIP published climate scenarios in 1998 and 2002 • Each became more detailed, building upon: • improved scientific knowledge & computing power • stakeholder requirements • Each represented best science at that time

3. Uses of Climate Models Climate model Acknowledgement of uncertainties Testing against data Grounding in reality Huge set of assumptions Predictions Understanding Forecasts Projections

4. Uses of Climate Models Climate model Acknowledge all uncertainties Testing against data Grounding in reality Huge set of assumptions Predictions Understanding Forecasts Projections

5. What Users wanted from UKCIP08 • Improved consideration and quantification of associated uncertainties – probabilistic What users wanted inUKCIP08 information • Improved spatial and temporal detail • Improved accessibility (dedicated online user interface) • More information about climate change in the marine environment

6. X Probability ? VERY UNLIKELY LIKELY VERY UNLIKELY Some climate variable

7. Greater spatial & temporal detail • 25km grid • Pre-defined areas • Administrative • River basins • Observed climate datasets including daily max and min temperature • Weather Generator to provide statistical expressions of future daily conditions consistent with the climate projections • More time periods

8. Historical climate information Information on present UK climate and recent trends, based on observations Probabilistic climate projections Information on future climate, provided in probabilistic terms Marine projections Information on modelled future changes below the surface of sea areas around UK Components of UKCIP08

9. UKCIP08 products A set of high-level headline messages will give a national overview of the main changes described by UKCIP08 • Reports including: • User guidance • Climate trends • Probabilistic changes of climate • Marine Projections • Summary Report • Pre-prepared maps and graphs  The UKCIP08 User Interface will allow users to create: • • • Individual maps, probabilistic plots (PDFs, CDFs), plume diagrams, etc Customised data products such as GIS-format files and sampled projections to input into impact models It will also provide access to an integrated Weather Generator

10. Supporting the use of UKCIP08 Training • Have completed a series of awareness workshops; training material on our website • Post-launch training events – big programme of familiarisation and learning workshops and e-learning support – watch this space! Worked examples • Set up using dummy data for now; currently being reviewed – will be updated once real data is available

11. UKCIP and UKCIP08 • UKCIP is the UK Climate Impacts Programme www.ukcip.org.uk • UKCIP08 are the climate scenarios, published by UKCIP • More information is available at UKCIP’s Scenarios Gateway www.ukcip08.net • UKCIP08 will be launched in the Spring

12. Rainfall and rain days 1971-2000

13. Trend in total rainfall 1961-2006

14. Trend in rain days 1961-2006

15. Mean temperature 1961-2000 rise 1971-90 mean

16. Impacts in Scotland • Not all negative – some opportunities • Opportunities may need work to be realised • Impacts being discovered now • Persisting uncertainties • Reactive adaptation pathways needed

17. Mitigation Causation Climate Change Human Beings Impacts Adaptation

18. Climate change responses Notalternatives!

19. Balanced responses • The climate change we expect in the next 30-40 years will be due to our past greenhouse gas emissions. • Climate change later this century is being determined by the emissions we allow now. • We need to alter our way of life so that we can both: • adapt to the changes that are already in the climate system…. • limit our future greenhouse gas emissions.

20. Need for a balance between….

21. Present Climate • Are we well-adapted to the present? • Is perfect adaptation possible? – desirable? • Do we manage present climate risks adequately? • Part of adapting to climate change is managing the extremes of the present climate

22. Do we notice the weather? Yes Farmers Sailors Operators No Boards Directors Finance Officers

23. “predict, optimise, relax” * • Focus on Climate Change – assumes “today” is OK • Led by physical science model developers • Uncertainty remains a barrier to decision-making • Climate remains a separate issue • Decision-makers will always need better data * Thanks to Lenny Smith

24. “assess, hedge, review” * • Focus on Climate Risks –assumes “today” needs attention • Led by decision-makers • Assess and manage current risks, then turn to future • Uncertainty is made explicit and addressed • Climate easier to mainstream into everyday • Immediate benefits to “day job” * Thanks to Lenny Smith

25. Sustainability • Include the hard to cost impacts of what you do to the environment in your plans • Be kind to the environment – you may need it one day • Address the needs of today while at the same time not compromising the needs of tomorrow • Keep on doing business despite the environment’s impacts on what you do • The environment, through climate change, has the power to shut you down – deal with it!

26. Sustainable Adaptation Don’t transfer risk to: Others in society The natural environment The future

27. Adaptation in Government Research on Impacts and Adaptation is funded by Defra (CEOSA) on behalf of Devolved Administrations. Defra’s new Adapting to Climate Change Programme (ACC) deals with policy – remit covers only England. UKCIP budget comes from both these sources. Some of CEOSA has moved to DECC, but domestic adaptation research will join ACC within Defra

28. Private Finance and Climate Risk • PFI is intended to shift financial risk to private sector (better at managing it?) • PFI contracts will see significant climate change. • PFI can be a mechanism for managing climate risk. • BUT risks must be identified, assigned, and costed. • Public sector failure? business opportunity?

29. www.ukcip.org.uk