Dr Richenda Connell Technical Director UK Climate Impacts Programme

1. Preparing for climate change in the UK CLIFFS inception meeting 20 April 2005, Loughborough University Dr Richenda Connell Technical Director UK Climate Impacts Programme

2. Outline • Brief introduction to UKCIP • Regional and sectoral climate change activities • UKCIP02 climate change scenarios • UKCIPnext climate information package • Decision-making in the face of uncertainty

3. In a nutshell: what is UKCIP? • The UK Climate Impacts Programme helps organisations assess how they might be affected by climate change, so they can prepare for its impacts • Stakeholder-led participatory research • Working towards ‘integrated national assessment’ • Set up 1997; funded by Defra (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) • Programme of the Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University

4. Mitigation Causation Human Action Climate Change Impacts UKCIP: increased emphasis on exploring adaptation Adaptation

5. Regional and sectoral climate change activities

6. UKCIP stakeholders • Other UKCIP contacts • 130+ scenarios data users: • Academic researchers • Students • Environmental consultancies • Agencies • Utilities • Local and regional government Who are our stakeholders? • Decision-makers across UK who need to prepare for climate change impacts: • Government departments • Agencies and utilities • Regions • Local government • Businesses

7. UKCIP sub-UK studies and partnerships Scotland scoping study completed December 1999. Further studies undertaken. P North East England scoping paper published November 2002. Yorkshire and Humberside scoping study completed June 2002. Partnership continues. Appointed regional climate change coordinator, 2004. Northern Ireland scoping study complete. P North West England scoping study completed December 1998. Climate Group continues. Undertaking pilot second stage study on tourism, 2004-2005. Appointed climate change project manager, 2004. East Midlands scoping study completed July 2000. Partnership taking forward next steps. P P P: Active partnership in place REGIS study phase 1 complete in North West England and East Anglia. Phase 2 underway. East of England study completed March 2004. Partnership taking forward next steps. P P West Midlands scoping study completed April 2004. Second stage studies being planned. Wales scoping study completed February 2000. London scoping study completed October 2002. Partnership continues. Focussing on transport, growth areas and financial sector, 2004. P South West England scoping study completed January 2003. Partnership continues. P South East England scoping study completed November 1999. Partnership continues. Regional coordinator appointed. Next stage research includes ESPACE and SECTORS projects. P

8. UKCIP sectoral studies and partnerships Underway: • MONARCH Phase 3 • Marine biodiversity • Regis 2 • Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate • Tourism • Business • Local authorities • Soils Future: • Healthcare? • Schools? • Transport? • Social? Complete: • Health • Nature conservation (MONARCH Phases 1+2) • Gardens • Water demand • Regis 1 P P P P cold (boreal) waters warm (Lusitanian) waters

9. Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate • Aims • Adaptation knowledge • User-researcher links • Develop research agenda • Features • Research Council and users • User + Researcher  proposal • Integrating Framework • Stakeholder Forum

10. Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate Wider world BETWIXT: high-resolution weather scenarios CRANIUM: risk management BESEECH: socio-economic aspects Stakeholder forum INTEGRATING FRAMEWORK AUDACIOUS: Urban drainage GENESIS: Energy BIONICS: Slope stability SUBR:IM Sustainable Urban Brownfield Regeneration: Integrated Management ASCCUE: Urban planning Engineering Historic Futures: Heritage DTI PII climate change projects

11. On the way to adaptation Scoping the Impacts Quantifying the Risks Decision-making & Action-Planning Adaptation Strategy Review Adaptation pervades the operation

12. UKCIP02 climate change scenarios: Observations of recent change Future scenarios

13. UKCIP02 climate change scenarios: Contents • Observations of recent change (5km, monthly, 1961-2000, 26 quantities) • Future changes in UK seasonal means (50km) • Future changes in daily extremes (50km) • Expert judgements of levels of confidence in changes • Uncertainties illustrated with other models

14. Carbon dioxide levels are rising (900 - 2002) [Source: IPCC]

15. Global mean surface temperatures have increased

16. Change in England and Wales precipitation 1873-2003 % change from 1961-90 average

17. 2.5 lat 3.75 long 19 levels in atmosphere 1.25 1.25 20 levels in ocean Hadley Centre - 5km The Hadley Centre third coupled model – HadCM3

18. Area of regional climate modelling for UKCIP02 Met Office / Hadley Centre

19. Future greenhouse gas emission scenarios source IPCC The four GHG emissions scenarios used to develop the UKCIP02 climate scenarios

20. CO2 concentration (ppm) Carbon emissions (Gt/yr)

21. We are already committed to changes up to 2040, but still have some choice thereafter Carbon emissions (Gt/yr) CO2 concentration (ppm) Global temperature change (deg C)

22. Global mean temperatures will increase further by 2100 source IPCC

23. Changes in average temperature Low emissions High emissions

24. Daily maximum temperature: probability of exceedance Central England summer temperature Baseline (1961-90) 31oC has 1% chance [I day per summer] 2080s, medium-high emissions 31oC has 11% chance [11 days per summer] 39oC has 1% chance

25. Changes in average precipitation Winter Summer

26. Daily precipitation: probability of exceedance “Berkshire” rainfall Winter – solid Baseline (1961-90): 20mm/day has 1% chance [I day per winter] 2080s, medium-high emissions: 20mm/day has 2% chance [2 days per winter] 25mm has 1% chance

27. Global sea level rise

28. High water level return period: Immingham, Lincs Baseline (1961-90)1.5m ca. 1 in 120 year eventMedium-high Emissions, 2080s1.5m is ca. 1 in 7 year event

29. Frequency of UK depressions Baseline (1961-90) - blueMedium-High Emissions, 2080s - red

30. Other changes by 2050s • Summer / autumn soil moisture down (0 to -30%) • Summer relative humidity down (0 to –12%) • Summer cloud cover down (0 to –12%) • Snowfall down by 20% to 70% • Fog days down • No significant change in average wind speed – uncertain

31. Summary of expected climate changes Long-term / seasonal averages • Warmer, drier summers (spring, autumn too) • Milder, wetter winters • Rising sea levels Extremes • More very hot days • More intense downpours of rain • Shorter return periods for high water levels at coast • Uncertain changes in storms – possible increase in winter

32. Circulation strength (Sverdrups) No change in emissions High emissions Medium-High Medium-Low Low emissions Will the Gulf Stream collapse? Climate models show a 20% reduction, but not a switch-off

33. UKCIP02 climate change scenarios address some uncertainties well • GHG emissions uncertainty underlies 4 UKCIP02 scenarios • ‘low emissions, medium-low…, high emissions’ • All based on Hadley Centre model • results not available for other regional climate model experiments • Model uncertainty illustrated by comparison with other GCMs • and uncertainty margins provided

34. Model uncertainty • UKCIP02 scenarios show great summer drying over UK than most other climate models • “Strongly recommend that any detailed adaptation strategy explores a wider range of uncertainty”

35. UKCIPnext climate information package

36. Why are new scenarios needed? • UKCIP02 (April 2002) are still state-of-art • ..but need to include modelling uncertainty • User pull: more demanding requirements • Science push: developments in climate science give opportunities for improved scenarios

37. Developments in climate science relevant to UKCIPnext scenarios • Improved global models • more processes, eg carbon cycle • better description of processes • Handling modelling uncertainty via: • results from other models • probability predictions • Higher resolution predictions, down to 12km • Improved predictions of storms • Predictions of river flows and storm surges

38. 100% Probability Probability -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% +10% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% +10% 2050s E&W summer rainfall 2050s E&W summer rainfall Probabilistic climate predictions

39. Change in summer rainfall from 53 model physics ensemble mm/day James Murphy Hadley Centre

40. Probability -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% +10% 2050s E&W summer rainfall UKCIP07/08: Probabilistic climate predictions X CLIMATE MODELS ATMOSPHERE + CLOUDS LAND AND VEGETATION CARBON CYCLE OCEAN CIRCULATION ETC.

41. Probability predictions of change in E&W seasonal precipitation by 2080s 53-member ensemble of HadSM3 PRELIMINARY RESULTS NOT FOR USE summer winter Probability per 5% bin, % SUMMER WINTER Change in precipitation, %

42. Annual surface temperature predictions: UK + near Europe; one year ahead

43. Decision-making in the face of uncertainty

44. UKCIP/EA decision-making framework for managing climate risks Why? • ‘With so much uncertainty, how can decisions be made?’ • Bringing ‘climate adaptation’ and ‘risk management’ worlds together – ‘mainstreaming’ climate risks within existing processes • Addresses current & future climate risks How? • Developed with Environment Agency Centre for Risk and Forecasting • Similar to frameworks used for corporate risk management – recognisable to decision-makers • Four case studies developed as basis for training workshops

45. UKCIP/EA decision-making framework for managing climate risks Criteria for Stage 5 – legislation, risk attitude Main drivers behind decision How should London’s strategies take account of climate risks? Tiered risk assessment – climate and non-climate factors Bring info together Final checks No-regret options Flexible options Delay/Do nothing? Evaluate against Stage 2 criteria

46. 5 4 P6: Use adaptive management to cope with uncertainty • Put in place incremental adaptation options, rather than undertaking large-scale adaptation in one fell swoop • Keep open / increase options that allow climate adaptation in future, when need for adaptation and performance of different measures is less uncertain • E.g. Flood management: It may be sensible to allow for future increases in defence height, while not building to a higher standard immediately • Circular, iterative framework promotes adaptive management

47. 5 4 P7: Try to find no- or low-regret adaptation options • ‘No regret’: deliver benefits that exceed their costs, whatever the extent of climate change • E.g. If already experiencing weather-related problems, carry out cost-effective actions to deal with them • ‘Low regret’: low cost, potentially large benefits under climate change • E.g. Building climate change in at the design stage for new drainage system – make pipes wider

48. 5 4 P8: Try to find win-win options • ‘Win-win’ options contribute to climate adaptation and also to other objectives • E.g. Creation of salt-marsh habitat provides flood protection for coastal areas and also contributes to nature conservation objectives

49. 6 P9: Avoid actions that will make it more difficult to cope with climate risks • Adaptation-constraining decisions make it more difficult for you, or others to manage future climate risks • E.g. Inappropriate development in a flood risk area

50. Summary • UK’s climate is already changing • UKCIP02 scenarios provide best available information at present • UKCIPnext package will be probabilistic • Climate adaptation will always involve decision-making in the face of uncertainty