Avoiding the ‘Perfect Storm’: Water-Food-Energy Security

1. WORKSHOP, 24-25 JULY, EXETER Avoiding the ‘Perfect Storm’: Water-Food-Energy Security Professor Dragan Savić Director, Centre for Water Systems, University of Exeter

2. Outline • ‘Perfect Storm’ & Security • Background and Intro • Civilisation Challenges • Decision-Making, Modelling, Science and Society • Aims of the Workshop • Identify Science Challenges/Gaps • Build Foundations for a UK Project(s)

3. ‘Perfect Storm’ Not the film! • An event where a rare combination of circumstances will aggravate a situation drastically • An actual phenomenon that happens to occur in such a confluence, resulting in an event of unusual magnitude

4. Context for a ‘Perfect Storm’ • Global human society must now attempt to solve a set of complex, interrelated problems that are fundamental threats to human civilisation • Many of these issues are directly related to the areas of water, food and energy • Security, prosperity and equity

5. Risk Interconnection Map 2011 WEF (2011)

6. Breaking news…. The report highlights five key factors that could threaten future stability - severe income disparity both within and between countries, fiscal imbalances across the globe, greenhouse gas emissions, cyber attacks and a water supply crisis. Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks 2012

7. What is WFE Security? • Security is about understanding and managing risks (and uncertainty), tradeoffs and synergies • Physical, economic and reliable access to required quantity/qualityof WFE (for health, livelihood and production) withacceptable level of risks to individuals, environment and society

8. The Perfect Storm of 2030! J. Beddington (UK government’s science adviser), Business as usual projections: • The world's population ↑ from 6bn to 8bn (33%) • Demand for food ↑ by 50% • Demand for water ↑ by 30% • Demand for energy ↑ by 50% Climate Change, Conflicts, Economic Growth

9. Biofuels • Pump efficiency • Fertilizers • Food supply chain • Transport • Water efficiency • Agricultural organisation • Virtual water • Subsidies • Stakeholders • Water for energy • Cooling • Extraction of fuels • Hydropower • Biofuels • Emissions scrubbing • Energy for water • Pumping • Desalination • Treatment

10. Civilisation Challenges: Water-Food-Energy

11. Limited or No Access • All three areas have many billions of people without access (quantity or quality or both)

12. Rapidly Growing Global Demand Source: US EIA (2012) Source: McKinsey and Co (2011)

13. WFE Resource Constraints

14. Other Challenges (1) • All are ‘‘global goods’’ and involve international trade and have global implications • All have different regional and temporal availability and variations in supply and demand • All have strong interdependencies with climate change, population dynamics and environment • All have deep security issues as they are fundamental to the functioning of society Adapted from: Baziliana, Rogner, Howells, Hermann, Arent, Gielen, Steduto, Mueller, Komor, Tol and Yumkella, Energy Policy, 39 (2011), 7896-7906.

15. Other Challenges (2) • All operate in heavily regulated markets • All require the explicit identification and treatment of risks and trade-offs • Due to the vastness of the individual areas and the difficulty of considering all three together, there is little work focusing on how to support decision-making at the WFE ‘nexus’ Adapted from: Baziliana, Rogner, Howells, Hermann, Arent, Gielen, Steduto, Mueller, Komor, Tol and Yumkella, Energy Policy, 39 (2011), 7896-7906.

16. Other Challenges (3) • As a result, policies and regulations can often inadvertently create sub-optimal signals to economic, national security or environment concerns or even ‘unintended consequences’ Adapted from: Baziliana, Rogner, Howells, Hermann, Arent, Gielen, Steduto, Mueller, Komor, Tol and Yumkella, Energy Policy, 39 (2011), 7896-7906.

19. Modelling, Science and Society

20. Modelling for WFE Security • Modelling - a critical translation point between science and society • between the physical aspects of WFE security and societal solutions • to engage stakeholders and achieve shared vision • ‘Predict and Plan’ Approach?

21. Schematic of Ethanol production and energy-water-food interactions International Atomic Energy Agency (2009)

22. Modelling for WFE Security • Complexity and Systems Science Approach • WFE Security – ‘Wicked Problem’ • Relationships are intimately linked, physically, socially and economically • Difficult or impossible to solve • Governed by complexity and feedback mechanisms that cannot be reconciled by studying each component separately

23. Modelling for WFE Security • Can modelling help us make better decisions and policy? • Not only incremental improvements • Long-term, transformative thinking • Systematic, rather than in one area only • To underpin the innovation process • To learn as we go along • “at least we should be making new mistakes”

24. System Dynamics Modelling System Dynamics Approach Source: Proust et al. (2007) Climate, energy and water : Accounting for the links, Fenner School of Env and Society

25. Objectives/Aims of the Workshop?

26. Science Challenges • Develop New Knowledge • Develop understanding of the kind of futures that are possible and kind of decisions we need to make to get to desirable futures • Develop the ‘Human Dimension’ • To help manage whole ‘landscapes’ (“when nature meets culture”)

27. Science Challenges • ‘WFE Nexus’ needs to be tackled in a trans-disciplinary manner, by involving various R&D providers, e.g.: • Natural & ecological scientists • Engineers & Technologists • Social scientists (policy, economics, psychology, etc)

28. Science Challenges • To increase levels of understanding • Institutional capacity to act on the complex interactions • Among stakeholders (engagement, empowerment) • To identify technological and management opportunities • To develop and apply modelling tools that can support integrated decision-making

29. Project? Thank you d.savic@exeter.ac.uk