A Development Perspective of Impacts and Adaptation for Human Settlements, Energy and Industry

1. A Development Perspective of Impacts and Adaptation for Human Settlements, Energy and Industry Manmohan Kapshe Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: From Practice to Policy 11-12 May 2006, Hotel Metropolitan Nikko, New Delhi

2. Presentation Agenda • Present Status • National Level Integrated Assessment • Impacts and Adaptation Strategies • Development and Climate Change • Managing Transitions • Conclusions

3. Present Status • Sectoral studies • Few impact studies • Very few adaptation studies • Regional diversity and Geographical differences • Limited economic indicators of damages and costs

4. Limitations of Approaches • Limited capability to characterize and parameterize long term interactions between the economy, society, and environment • Most of the assumptions are derived from developed world perspective • Inability to characterize discontinuities and extreme events • Weak behavioral interfaces • Distance between analysts and policy makers

5. National Level Integrated Framework Global Assessment National Assessment National Implementation Measurements National Emissions Global Emissions Emissions, Impacts Energy System and Atmospheric Other Emissions Ch ange Project / Finance Mitigation Mitigation/Adaptation Socio - economic Global Policy Development Paths Regimes and Population, Economy, Policy Instruments International Technology, Agreements Emissions Trading. Feed Back Governance Standar ds, Insurance Adaptation Institutions NATCOM, Ministries, Climate Change Impacts Experts, Regulators Temperature Rise Adaptation Human and Natural Precipitation Change Sea Level Rise Systems Drought and Flood Technology R&D, Technology Transfer and Diffusion

6. Analytical Framework Primary data Secondary data Scenarios Risk Mitigation packages Sector-Impact matrix Total damage costs Framework for V&A assessment Extent of impacts Uncertainty and risk assessment framework Inputs from experts Impact-unit cost matrix Primary data Secondary data

7. A Case of Konkan Railway Project Components Environmental Variables Environmental Variables Project Components

8. Konkan Railway: Impacts and Adaptation • Presently 20% of repair and maintenance expenses on tracks, tunnels and bridges are due to climatic reasons. • An accident on 21st June 2003 night, resulting in over 50 deaths, was caused by landslide. Consequent to the accident, maximum permissible speed of trains was reduced from 120 Km/h to 75 Km/h. • Identification of the vulnerable spots and installation of “Raksha Dhaga”. Present vulnerable regions in the northern zone are shown on the map. Future rainfall pattern shows that such events are likely to occur more frequently and with higher intensity. • Adaptation measures should also consider non technological measures

9. Climate Change Impact on Energy • Capacity for additional demand: 13 GW in 2100, i.e. 1.5% of reference case • Electricity demand increased by 64 TWh in 2100 • Energy and electricity demand rise from building, irrigation and transport • Energy mix is unaltered.

10. Climate Change Impact on Emissions • In 2100, carbon emissions increase by 13.5 million ton, i.e. 1% rise over reference case • Emissions increase in power and transport sectors • Cumulative increase 710 MT

11. Uncertainty in Socio-economic Factors • Population growth • Fast changing fertility and mortality rates across the region. • Migrations resulting from natural disasters like cyclones, floods and droughts. • Urbanization • High rate of urbanization is causing pressure on existing infrastructure. • Change in energy resource use pattern • Economic and social development • Level of economic and social development varies across the region.

12. Special Characteristics of Settlements, Energy and Industry • Impact are more directly associated with climatic extremes rather than averages. • Possibility of abrupt climate changes not anticipated by normal response planning • Substantively different for relatively developed, industrialized regions vs. less developed regions. • Negative impacts of climate change pose risks of higher economic damages in developed / industrialized areas but higher human damages in less-developed areas.

13. Adaptation Strategies • Facilities and linkages against extreme weather-related events • Contingency planning (such as stockpiling) • Changes in financial mechanisms to increase resiliency • Increased efficiencies in thermal conditioning • Relocation and industrial restructuring • Planning for likely increase in energy demands • Adaptation by industry will be associated with marginal adjustments to changes in climatic parameters • Attention to the security of transportation and other linkage infrastructures • Risk financing and risk mitigation

14. Development and Climate: The Perspective • Conventional perspective • Development is a threat to climate • Climate change a barrier to development • Development and Climate perspective • Pathways that achieve national development goals are climate-friendly • Development is the driving force for addressing climate change challenges

15. Development and Climate:The Paradigm • Climate policies and actions to be driven by • national development targets • agreed goals under extant international agreements • Expanding development and climate frontier though: • Innovations (technology, institutions) • regional cooperation • targeted technology and investment flows • aligning stakeholder interests

16. Managing Transitions • Socio-Economic • Demographic: Urban / Rural, Gender ratio, Migration • Life Styles • Development Indicators • Income, Equity, Literacy, Health • Infrastructure, Housing, Vehicles, Appliances • Political • Institutions • Laws • Policies

17. Managing Transitions • Energy Resource • Supply Side • Fossil Futures: Conventional Coal/Gas/ Oil, Unconventional Oil/ Gas • Renewable Energy: Bio-technology, Solar • Large Hydro: Multi-purpose schemes • Nuclear: Fission with zero waste, Fusion • Demand side • Efficient Appliances • Substitutions (e.g. Information for transport) • Advance Technologies: Fuel-cell, Storage, Hydrogen, economy, Bio-engineering

18. Managing Transitions • Technology • Logistics: Pipelines • Electricity T&D : Decentralized utilities • Information: Wireless • Nanotechnology • Consumption & Life-style • Conservation : Substitutions, Recycling • City Planning, Architecture/ Building Codes • Sustainable Habits / Tradition

19. Managing Transitions • Environment • Awareness: Pressure groups • Income-effects: e.g. Kuznets phenomenon • Laws and Regulations: Global agreements, National policies • Technology: Zero-effluent Processes, Recycling

20. Key Issues • Contribution of development to mitigation • Linkages of impacts and adaptation across sectors • Impact of mitigation on energy system, e.g. coal • Co-benefits of different emission mitigation pathways • Water-energy-food nexus for adaptation • Role of development policies to enhance adaptive capacities • Continuous v/s extreme events adaptation • Needs for risk and uncertainty assessment • Role of Technologies • Role of Economic instruments (insurance): From non climate to climate focus, eg. Crop insurance • Institutional mechanism (communities, civil society, governments) in adaptation

21. Conclusions • Identification of critical needs for policy formulation in local context • Customization for local legal and policy frameworks • Level of exposure to climate change impacts • More studies needed on economic indicators of damages and costs • Development of an analysis framework to work as broad guideline with flexibility to accommodate situation specific changes • Development of community response mechanism • Internalization of adaptation approaches in development processes for effective implementation

22. Thank You.