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Ever Looser Union?

Ever Looser Union?. Richard Wyn Jones Canolfan Llywodraethiant Cymru //Wales Governance Centre Prifysgol Caerdydd //Cardiff University. The 3 ¾ constitutional debates…. Scotland, Wales, NI and (increasingly) England NB 18.ix.1997, these debates are linked…

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Ever Looser Union?

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  1. Ever Looser Union? Richard Wyn Jones CanolfanLlywodraethiantCymru//Wales Governance Centre PrifysgolCaerdydd//Cardiff University

  2. The 3¾ constitutional debates… • Scotland, Wales, NI and (increasingly) England • NB 18.ix.1997, these debates are linked… • Scotland continues to inspire and incite • England. Resentment about Scotland very prevalent • Wales. Constitutional model + FM commentary • But debates have their own dynamics & substantial shifts in attitudes now visible in England and Wales (cf. NI?) • Scottish result, of course, significant but direction of travel is almost certainly fixed… EVER LOOSER UNION

  3. Scotland “Wants home rule not independence” Clegg Can/will the Unionist parties deliver? • Calman not promising…making life difficult not granting usable policy autonomy • Can they agree? • Will the central state be willing to change? • Even if all of this is done, would it be enough…the SNP have defined the middle position!

  4. Scotland: ‘Which Level of Government should have most influence?’ (%)

  5. Independent Scotland = status quo power • An independent Scotland would not seek to encourage centrifugal tendencies in rUK/’Little Britain’. • Once a nation joins ‘the club’ drawbridge gets hauled up behind it. True even of revolutionary powers, let alone independent Scotland! • cf. Free State and Plaid Cymru in 1930s. • More generally, if independence inevitable, pragmatic considerations would reign in the international system.

  6. Wales and ‘ever looser Union’ • Silk Commission has recommended devolution of tax powers • Welsh Government is using the Silk Part 2 to call for extensive further devolution: reserved powers (cf. Scotland Act 1978), policing with criminal justice to follow • Separate jurisdiction regarded as inevitable • Welsh Tories: devolve broadcasting • And public attitudes…

  7. Wales: ‘Which level of Government should have most influence? 2013 (%)YouGov Feb./Beaufort May/June NB Different question wordings and options

  8. England and its Two Unions • Deep English mistrust of ‘Europe’ only one manifestation of a deeper unease… • Euroscepticism is closely linked to ‘devoanxiety’ • Support for territorial status quo has plunged (20-25%) • Want England ‘recognised’ is some form • London/BMEs outliers • though English NatID stronger than Brit in London • BME identify with England as place if not Nat ID

  9. EU referendum vote by Moreno NatID (Future of England Survey 2012)

  10. Devoanxiety by EU membership good or bad (%)FoES 2012

  11. Constitutional preferences by EU membership good/bad (%) (FoES 2102)

  12. Two key questions for the future • What would a looser union look like constitutionally speaking? Is ‘centre’ willing to change? Jury must be out on that… • And what of Northern Ireland? Almost certain that the 2011 census results will show that this is the only part of the UK where British is the plurality NatID. A Britishness, moreover, that few on the larger island understand let alone share

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