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Road Transport Projections: April 2009 Base

Road Transport Projections: April 2009 Base. Tim Murrells & Yvonne Li Air Pollution Research in London – Transport & Noise Group Meeting Imperial College 6th July 2009. Road Transport Projections: Methodologies & Assumptions in April 2009 Version (1).

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Road Transport Projections: April 2009 Base

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  1. Road Transport Projections: April 2009 Base Tim Murrells & Yvonne Li Air Pollution Research in London – Transport & Noise Group Meeting Imperial College 6th July 2009

  2. Road Transport Projections: Methodologies & Assumptions in April 2009 Version (1) • DfT/TRL vehicle emission factors, emission degradation rates and fuel effects (finalised versions, April 2009) • Euro 5/V and 6/VI vehicle emission standards and EU Fuel Quality Directives • DfT traffic projections for GB (exc London): November 2008 BAU by road, vehicle, area type • TfL traffic projections for London • Revised data on vehicle speeds (road, vehicle, area type) • Revised (higher) catalyst failure assumptions (DfT) • Diesel car penetration rates reach 43% by 2020 (slower rate of increase than before) • Different diesel/petrol car mix on different road types (more mileage by diesel cars on motorways) • London LEZ (all phases included) • Biofuel uptake and effects on emissions

  3. Road Transport Projections: Methodologies & Assumptions in April 2009 Version (2) • Revised vehicle turnover assumptions: • New vehicle sales • Vehicle survival rates • Other TfL fleet composition data (London buses & taxis) • Car fleet in N Ireland • Revised cold start emission methodology • Revised evaporative emission methodology

  4. UK Road Transport Emissions: NOx

  5. Causes of Changes in UK NOx Emissions in 2010

  6. UK Road Transport Emissions: PM

  7. Causes of Changes in UK PM Emissions in 2010

  8. Other Pollutants: • Projections completed for: • NH3, NMVOCs, CO and SO2 • N2O, CH4

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