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Knowing the Rules Behind Decisions

The Future of Decision Modeling (The Decision Model, OMG’s DMN, The Event Model) Barbara von Halle bvonhalle@kpiusa.com Barbara (Meacham) Von Halle on linkedin. Knowing the Rules Behind Decisions. Decision Modeling?. Objectives. Share new models and glance at a possible future.

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Knowing the Rules Behind Decisions

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  1. The Future of Decision Modeling(The Decision Model, OMG’s DMN, The Event Model)Barbara von Hallebvonhalle@kpiusa.comBarbara (Meacham) Von Halle on linkedin

  2. Knowing the Rules Behind Decisions

  3. Decision Modeling?

  4. Objectives Share new models and glance at a possible future. Which models will business analysts create? Your Objectives

  5. Timeline of Models TDM and DECISION adopted by leading global financial institutions 2014 1969 prior 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013** 2010 1989 The Relational Model **Partner with IBM Research Haifa, Israel First adoption of The Decision Model by a leading financial institution Enterprise-grade Software Application developed by Sapiens *Invited to join OMG DMN 6 co-inventors

  6. Agenda Innovating, Proving Value: Business Focused and Stable DMN Changing the Game: A New Standard Tackling the Next Dimension: Event Processing

  7. Proven operational impact

  8. Real World 82 rules Long free text rule descriptions Rules with different focuses – fraud, lost/stolen cards, Federal State Arrestment orders, UN sanctions … Two rule types - decisions & procedural rules Posting locks – accounts, cards Decision – closure eligibility Procedural rules – for statements and soft reject messages Customer inhibits (Missing Address) E-products etc. in continuation … IF … AND mixed with IF … OR

  9. TDM Rule Family Multiple Logic Statements that Look Like This: AND AND Card lock status type is Account closure lock status Is Lost card Active Account closure channel Is Back office Is Ineligible Account closure Become Two Dimensional Tables called Rule Families Like This: AND OR Rule Families are Tables that Conform to Rigorous Principles

  10. The Decision Model Determine Excess Alert Status How the Decision Model Diagram corresponds to Rule Family Structures Excess Alert Status Excess Alert Balance Product

  11. The Decision Model Determine Excess Alert Status How the Decision Model Diagram corresponds to Rule Family Structures Excess Alert Status Excess Alert Balance Product

  12. Real WorldDecision model covering all closure eligibility rules with top-down clarity and normalized Overall decision Locks Pending items Linked e-products / e-bonds Orphaned e-products Orphaned e-bonds Sole account Sole accounts Joint accounts Joint accounts Customer locks Account locks Card locks

  13. Real World(Principles find all errors)

  14. Real World Separating out decisions simplifies the process and separates changes

  15. Let’s Create a TDM Rule Family

  16. Probationary Driver License Compliance: Bottom Up Create a Rule Family table for the third compliance requirement. (http://www.state.nj.us/mvc/Licenses/EarlyBird.htm#a2) • Display a reflectorized decal on each license plate (front/back); decals available at motor vehicle agencies, $4 per pair • No driving after 11:01 p.m. and before 5:00 a.m. • You must be accompanied in the front seat by an adult supervising driver who is at least 21 years of age and who possesses a valid New Jersey driver license and has a minimum of three years driving experience • You can't use cell phones, hand held video games or any other hands-free interactive, wireless communication device • Seat belts must be worn at all times

  17. Rule Family Preliminary Column Headings You must be accompanied in the front seat by an adult supervising driver who is (1) at least 21 years of age and who (2) possesses a valid New Jersey driver license and has (3) a minimum of three years driving experience

  18. Rule Family Preliminary Column Headings You must be accompanied in the front seat by an adult supervising driver who is (1) at least 21 years of age and who (2) possesses a valid New Jersey driver license and has (3) a minimum of three years driving experience

  19. Rule Family Preliminary Column Headings You must be accompanied in the front seat by an adult supervising driver who is (1) at least 21 years of age and who (2) possesses a valid New Jersey driver license and has (3) a minimum of three years driving experience

  20. Rule Family Refined Column Headings You must be accompanied in the front seat by an adult supervising driver who is (1) at least 21 years of age and who (2) possesses a valid New Jersey driver license and has (3) a minimum of three years driving experience Supporting Rule Family computes Front Seat Passenger Age

  21. Rule Family Refined Column Headings You must be accompanied in the front seat by an adult supervising driver who is (1) at least 21 years of age and who (2) possesses a valid New Jersey driver license and has (3) a minimum of three years driving experience Supporting Rule Family has logic for Front Seat Passenger Driver License Validity (state code, vehicle type, active vs suspended/expired, etc)

  22. Rule Family Refined Column Headings You must be accompanied in the front seat by an adult supervising driver who is (1) at least 21 years of age and who (2) possesses a valid New Jersey driver license and has (3) a minimum of three years driving experience We don’t have access to this information

  23. Rule Family Compliant Row You must be accompanied in the front seat by an adult supervising driver who is (1) at least 21 years of age and who (2) possesses a valid New Jersey driver license and has (3) a minimum of three years driving experience

  24. Rule Family “Otherwise” Rows You must be accompanied in the front seat by an adult supervising driver who is (1) at least 21 years of age and who (2) possesses a valid New Jersey driver license and has (3) a minimum of three years driving experience

  25. Let’s Create a TDM Diagram

  26. Determine Probationary Driver Compliance Let’s Create a TDM Diagram Probationary Driver Compliance Vehicle Reflective Decal Compliance Driver Device Compliance Front Seat Passenger Compliance Driving Hours Driver Seat Belt

  27. Determine Probationary Driver Compliance Create Logic Branches Driver Device Compliance Driver Cell Phone Driver Video Game Driver Other Hand-Held Device Front Seat Passenger Compliance Front Seat Passenger Age Front Seat Passenger Driver License Validity Vehicle Reflective Decal Compliance Vehicle Front Decal Present Vehicle Rear Decal Present Probationary Driver Compliance Vehicle Reflective Decal Compliance Driver Device Compliance Front Seat Passenger Compliance Driving Hours Driver Seat Belt

  28. Determine Probationary Driver Compliance Until DoneThen PopulateTables Driver Device Compliance Driver Cell Phone Driver Video Game Driver Other Hand-Held Device Front Seat Passenger Compliance Front Seat Passenger Age Front Seat Passenger Driver License Validity Front Seat Passenger Driver License Validity FSP Driver License Vehicle Type FSP Driver License State Code FSP Driver License Status FSP Driver License Type Front Seat Passenger Age (Front Seat Passenger Birthdate) Vehicle Reflective Decal Compliance Vehicle Front Decal Present Vehicle Rear Decal Present Probationary Driver Compliance Vehicle Reflective Decal Compliance Driver Device Compliance Front Seat Passenger Compliance Driving Hours Driver Seat Belt

  29. What the Decision Model has been Used For • Compliance decisions (compliant, noncompliant) • Eligibility decisions (multiple values) • General business logic (claim payments, membership in healthcare plans, policy renewal) • Underwriting logic • Risk logic for defaulting assets • Data quality and data acceptance logic

  30. Agenda Innovating, Proving Value: Business Focused and Stable DMN Changing the Game: A New Standard • Goals of OMG DMN • Flexible representation and expressions • Related items (sources) • Common metamodel • New language called FEEL Tackling the Next Dimension: Event Processing

  31. Brief OMG DMN History • 2008-9: KPI presents TDM to OMG • 3/2011: DMN RFP Issued • 5/2012: Two Submissions (combined into one) • 7/2012: Barb, Larry invited to join the team • 1/2014: Press Release

  32. The DMN Submission and Authoring Team of Companies Escape Velocity Model Systems

  33. January 17, 2014 OMG BOARD OF DIRECTORS VOTE TO ADOPT DECISION MODEL AND NOTATION SUBMISSION Needham, MA – The Object Management Group (OMG®) is pleased to announce that its Board of Directors has voted to publish the Decision Model and Notation (DMN) specification. It may be viewed by the public on the OMG homepage.  Aside: The BABOK update team at the IIBA accepted decision modeling as a technique to be included in the BABOK, thereby removing the use of process to describe decision-making logic.

  34. DMN Decision Requirements Diagram

  35. DMN Knowledge sources

  36. Sample DMN Decision Table(There are 5 types) ApplicantRisk Rating Hit policy Outputs Inputs

  37. TDM to DMN Determine Probationary Driver Compliance Driver Device Compliance Driver Cell Phone Driver Video Game Driver Other Hand-Held Device Front Seat Passenger Compliance Front Seat Passenger Age Front Seat Passenger Driver License Validity Front Seat Passenger Driver License Validity FSP Driver License Vehicle Type FSP Driver License State Code FSP Driver License Status FSP Driver License Type Vehicle Reflective Decal Compliance Vehicle Front Decal Present Vehicle Rear Decal Present Front Seat Passenger Age (Front Seat Passenger Birthdate) Probationary Driver Compliance Vehicle Reflective Decal Compliance Driver Device Compliance Front Seat Passenger Compliance Driving Hours Driver Seat Belt

  38. TDM to DMN: High Level Probationary Driver Decals Front Seat Passenger Devices Passenger Driver License Front Seat Passenger Age • No TDM octagon • No TDM business glossary • TDM Rule Families shown as DMN decision structures with free form text • Arrows

  39. TDM to DMN: Detailed Level Probationary Driver Probationary Driver Compliance Vehicle Reflective Decal Compliance Driver Device compliance Front Seat Passenger Compliance Driving Hours Driver Seat Belt Decals Vehicle Reflective Decal Compliance Vehicle Front Decal Present Vehicle Rear Decal Present Front Seat Passenger Front Seat Passenger Compliance Front Seat Passenger Age Front Seat Passenger Driver License Validity Devices Driver Device Compliance Driver Cell Phone Driver Video Game Driver Other Hand-Held Device • TDM Rule Families shown as DMN decision structures with TDM format Front Seat Passenger Driver License Front Seat Passenger Driver License Validity FSP Driver License Vehicle Type FSP Driver License State Code FSP Driver License Status FSP Driver License Type Passenger Age Front Seat Passenger Age (Front Seat Passenger Birthdate)

  40. Comparison 2009 TDM 2014 DMN Notation, metamodel, FEEL, not constrained to normalized structures Not widely used yet No business glossary • Formal model with 15 principles and normalized structures • Widely used worldwide • Driven by Business Glossary *TDM is an ideal model for detailed business logic (highest quality , lowest cost of maintenance) and can maximize the value of DMN notation (validation and test case generation).

  41. Agenda Innovating, Proving Value: Business Focused and Stable DMN Changing the Game: A New Standard Tackling the Next Dimension: Event Processing

  42. About Opher Etzion Opher Etzion works on application generations, active database systems and temporal database systems in the Israeli Air-force, Sapiens and the Technion; receives several prestigious awards and Opher Etzion joins IBM Research and establishes the work on “Amit – Active middleware Technology”, one of the pioneering projects on event processing. The book “Event Processing in Action”, co-authored by Opher Etzion and Peter Niblett is published Opher Etzion is recognized by ACM as distinguished speaker prior 1998 2006 2010 2011 2010 2012 Within the next decade Amit is being used within several IBM products and service offering, as well as embedded technology for some ISVs. Opher Etzion initiates the “event processing” discipline and community by organizing the first event processing symposium which results in the establishment of the Event Processing Technical Society Opher Etzion receives the IBM Corporate Award, the highest IBM award for “groundbreaking research on event processing that lead to establishing IBM as leader in an emerging market” Starting the work on “The Event Model” with KPI Opher Etzion co-edits the book “Temporal Databases- Research and practice”.

  43. What are events? I want to know about it immediately and react in the best possible way Awareness Situation Reaction Detect Derive Decide Do TEM TDM/DMN Process What should we do about it? Did Something Happen? Yes!

  44. TEM Vocabulary Event: an occurrence of something that may happen, will happen, or has happened that is of business interest and is published Raw Event: output of a producer Example: “a” cash deposit Derived Event: output of Event Logic Example: “big” cash deposit Situation: derived event with at least one consumer or activator Example: “suspicious” account Event logic: specification of “context” and “conditions” to derive that a situation of interest has occurred, may have occurred, or is likely to occur

  45. What Does Event Processing Look Like Today? Not all events fit within a well-defined internally controlled process Event logic is hidden inside the business process Difficult to define Cumbersome to change

  46. What Does Event Processing Look Like Today? // Big cash deposit insert into BigCashDeposit select * from Transaction where amount > 100,000 and transaction_cash_deposit_indicator =’Y’ // Frequent (At least three) big cash deposits create context AccountID partition by accountId on Transaction; Context AccountID Insert into FrequentBigCashDeposits select count(*) from BigCashDeposit having count(*)>3; // Transfer abroad insert into TransferAbroad select * from Transaction where transferabroad_indicator =’Y’ // Frequent cash deposits followed by transfer abroad Context AccountID insert into SuspiciousAccount select * from pattern [ every f=FrequentCashDeposit -> t=TransferAbroad where timer.within(15 days)] Non-intuitive code to business users Business logic embedded in the code Difficult to define and maintain Cumbersome to introduce changes

  47. Event processing with TEM Suspicious Account Compliance officer Frequent large cash deposits Frequent cash deposits followed by transfers abroad Lack of account activity Frequent cash deposits Frequent large cash Lack of account activity followed by transfers abroad deposits Cash deposit followed Large cash deposit Cash deposit is absent by transfer abroad Transfer abroad is absent Simple diagram specifically defined only for events No program code Uses business-created glossary No technical terms or artifacts Independent of technology Set of integrity/validation principles Fully automatable due to principles Cash deposit followed by Large cash deposit transfer abroad Cash deposit cash amount <Cash deposit> customer threshold Transfer abroad Bank transaction system

  48. Step 1: Draw the situation of interest and its consumer Compliance officer Suspicious Account

  49. Step 2: Add the situation’s structure C C C Compliance officer Suspicious Account Conclusion Frequent large cash deposits Derived events serving as input to the conclusion Frequent cash deposits followed by transfers abroad Lack of account activity Context

  50. Suspicious Account Compliance officer Frequent large cash deposits Frequent cash deposits followed by transfers abroad Lack of account activity Frequent cash deposits Frequent large cash Lack of account activity followed by transfers abroad deposits Cash deposit followed Large cash deposit Cash deposit is absent by transfer abroad Transfer abroad is absent Bank transaction system Step 3: Go one step further Add structures for the three required derived events Connect event producers

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