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Air Quality Focus Area

BOSC Program review September 26-28, 2005. Air Quality Focus Area. Technology Assessments. Man-made Emissions. Regional Climate Modeling. Biogenic & Wildfire Emissions. EPA/ORD Long-term Goal. Climate- sensitive Emissions. Regional Air Quality Simulations. Regional

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Air Quality Focus Area

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  1. BOSC Program review September 26-28, 2005 Air Quality Focus Area

  2. Technology Assessments Man-made Emissions Regional Climate Modeling Biogenic & Wildfire Emissions EPA/ORD Long-term Goal Climate- sensitive Emissions Regional Air Quality Simulations Regional Air Quality Simulations 2007 Air Quality Assessment 2010 Air Quality Assessment . . . 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Milestones LTG: Air quality managers and decision makers in EPA regional and program offices will use scientific information and models from EPA’s research and assessment program to evaluate and implement adaptation policies that protect air quality from the impacts of global change.

  3. Our Approach

  4. Challenges • Linking global to regional processes • Time horizon • Short enough for credible economic, technological and emissions projections • Long enough for a discernable climate change signal • Development of high resolution inputs (36 km grid)

  5. Uncertainty • Dealing with uncertainties in an integrated modeling effort is a difficult challenge • Three major activities • Multiple, complementary projects • Uncertainty Workshop and Literature Review • Exploration of modeling frameworks, methodologies, and tools for: • characterizing uncertainty • propagating uncertainty and analyzing results • incorporating consideration of uncertainty into decision-making

  6. Collaborators • Global Chemistry Modeling • Harvard University • Carnegie Mellon • U of Ill - Urbana Regional Climate Modeling • PNNL • U of Ill - Urbana, • Washington State • Columbia University See Poster “Global to Regional Linkages: Climate and Air Quality”

  7. Georgia Tech • U of CA - Davis • RFF • U of TX - Austin • U of WA - Seattle • U of Ill – Urbana • U of NC – Chapel Hill • SUNY - Buffalo • U of WI - Madison • Columbia University Collaborators Population Growth • NCEA Economic Activity • NCEA • NRMRL • OAR Regional Development Technology Assessment (Transportation, Energy Sector) • NRMRL • Johns Hopkins See Poster “Future Technology Scenarios–Implications for Regional Air Quality” See Poster “How will Changes in Land Cover and Use Impact Emissions?”

  8. Collaborators Biogenic Emissions Modeling • NERL • US Forest Service • U of CO - Boulder • U of NC – Chapel Hill • U of TX - Austin • U of NH Emissions Modeling • NRMRL • NERL • OAR See Poster “How will Climate Change Directly Impact Emissions?”

  9. Collaborators Regional Air Quality Modeling • NERL • Georgia Tech • Carnegie Mellon • U of Ill – Urbana • UC-Berkeley • Washington State • Columbia University See Poster “Global to Regional Linkages: Climate and Air Quality”

  10. Outcomes • Raise awareness of: • global change issues for air quality managers and researchers; • air quality impacts for climate change decision makers • Design effective control strategies for improved air quality using Technology Assessments and databases (OAR) • Use of tools for improved understanding of the impacts of technology change at Regional Level (Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management) • See Poster “Decision Support Tools for Regional Adaptation to Global Change” • Contribute directly to California Air Resources Board’s assessment of impacts of climate on air quality

  11. Stakeholders Climate Change Science Program Office of Air and Radiation • Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards • Office of Transportation and Air Quality • Office of Atmospheric Programs NESCAUM CARB Future Stakeholders identified through Decision Assessment

  12. Michele Aston Bill Benjey Ellen Cooter Joe Decarolis Cynthia Gage Robert Gilliam Alice Gilliland Anne Grambsch Sherri Hunt Brooke Hemming Tim Johnson Dan Loughlin Doug McKinney Chris Nolte Bill Rhodes Carol Shay Jenise Swall Samudra Vijay Darrell Winner Sonia Yeh ORD Global Air Quality Team

  13. Air Quality Focus Area Posters • Overview of Air Quality Focus Area • Global to Regional Linkages: Climate and Air Quality • How will Changes in Land Cover and Use Impact Emissions? • How will Climate Change Directly Impact Emissions? • Future Technology Scenarios–Implications for Regional Air Quality • Decision Support Tools for Regional Adaptation to Global Change

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