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Enhancing R esilience in the Horn of Africa

Enhancing R esilience in the Horn of Africa. CTA Brussels Briefing Brussels, March 4, 2013 Jean-François Maystadt International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Center for I nstitutions and Economic Performance (LICOS). Lack of resilience in the Horn?.

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Enhancing R esilience in the Horn of Africa

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  1. EnhancingResilience in the Horn of Africa • CTA Brussels Briefing • Brussels, March 4, 2013 • Jean-François Maystadt • International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) • Center forInstitutionsandEconomic Performance (LICOS)

  2. Lack of resilience in the Horn? (+) Traditional coping strategies (e.g. mobility) (+) Livestock sector is a source of currentwealthand a sector withpotentialaddedvalue (e.g. exports to the Middle East) (-) More severe and frequent shocks and stress (on limitedamount of water) (-) Restrictedmobilitydueto a mix of populationgrowth, fragmentation of grazinglandsandinsecurity (-) Conflict, poorgovernance , pricevolatilityandlack of long-term donor commitment (-) Pastoralistpopulations in ASAL regionsoftenpoliticallyandeconomicallyneglected in terms of public investment 2011 drought: Reliefefforts have savedlifes but have notsufficientlyincreased the capacitytowithstandfuture shocks andstresses Source: Headey, L. You, andA.S. Taffesse (2012) Enhancingresilience in the Horn of Africa. IFPRI DP. Forthcoming in World Development.

  3. Vicious cycle of violence? Estimated food security conditions, 9/2011 Violence in Somalia, 1997-2009 Source: Maystadt et al. (2013), based on ACLED (2012). Source: DFID(2012).

  4. Vicious cycle in Somalia Source: Maystadt, Ecker andMabiso (2013) Extreme weatherandcivil war in Somalia: Does DroughtFuel Conflict throughLivestock Price Shocks . IFPRI Discussion Paper, forthcoming.

  5. Vicious cycle in Somalia (and Sudan) • Droughts fuel civil conflicts in Somalia • Specific channel: drought-induced economic shocks on the livestock sector and resulting income changes • Link between extreme weather shocks andviolencealso found in North and South Sudan (work in progress) • … Risk of violence is likely to magnify in the future … • Unless urgent action to enhance resilience to shocks is taken Source: Maystadt, , Ecker andMabiso(2013) Extreme weatherandcivil war in Somalia: Does DroughtFuel Conflict throughLivestock Price Shocks. IFPRI Discussion Paper, forthcoming.

  6. Enhancing resilience through a balanced development strategy • Investment in pastoralist activities: • Improvedlivestockresiliencetodrought: adoption of drought-resistant animals, veterinary health services, emergency feed, and better access to water but without disturbing the (well-functing) livestock value chain • Help de-stocking and re-stocking through improved access to markets, insurance and credit markets, weather insurance schemes • Support incomediversification: Irrigation, Migration andEducation • Social Safety Net Program? Whatcan we learnfrom Safety Net Programmestoenhanceresilience in the Horn of Africa? Source: Headey, L. You, andA.S. Taffesse (2012) Enhancingresilience in the Horn of Africa. IFPRI DP. Forthcoming in World Development

  7. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme(PSNP) • Between 1993 and 2004, the Government of Ethiopia launched near-annual emergency appeals for food aid and other forms of emergency assistance. • These succeeded in averting mass starvation but: • They did not banish the threat of further famine; • They did not prevent asset depletion; and • The ad hoc nature of these responses meant that the provision of emergency assistance—often in the form of food-for-work programmes—was not integrated into ongoing economic development activities. • In other words, these responses did not build resilience

  8. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme(PSNP) • PSNP began operating in 2005 (until 2014) • Reaches approximately one million households; 7 million people annually • EU is a major donor along with the USAID, World Bank, DfID, and a number of other countries • The PSNP “provides transfers to the food insecure population in chronically food insecure woredas in a way that prevents asset depletion at the household level and creates assets at the community level” • It provides recipient with public works • It also seeks to stimulate market development and rehabilitate the natural environment • The PSNP is complemented by a program (now) called the “Household Asset Building Programme” (HABP) • Increased contact and coordination with agricultural extension services • Improved access to credit

  9. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme:Impact on food security Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

  10. Building resilience:Change in food security for households experiencing 2+ droughts Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

  11. Building resilience:Change in livestock for households experiencing 2+ droughts Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

  12. Building resilience at the household level Change in food security Change in livestock Source: Hoddinott J., A.S. Taffesse and others (2012)

  13. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Programme: • Builds resilience at: • Government and governance • Natural resource management • Household • Impacts are larger when combined with the HABP. Why? • Transfers provide both a safety net and working capital • HABP provides technical expertise

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