Incorporating Extreme Weather Risks in Asset Management Planning

1. Incorporating Extreme Weather Risks in Asset Management Planning Lynn Clarkowski

2. What is a Transportation Asset Mgmt Plan (TAMP)? • A tool used to manage an organization's infrastructure and other assets with the objective of delivering an agreed upon standard of service • Establishes a consistent and transparent statewide approach to planning, programming, and managing physical assets

3. Benefits of a TAMP? • Lays out the process of how to best manage the highway pavements, bridges & other physical assets for the long term • Resource allocation decisions are based on data and analysis • Consideration of engineering, life-cycle cost, and risk analysis with investment strategies • Improved coordination between maintenance, preservations, and capital programs

4. Key MAP-21 Components of TAMP • Asset Inventory/Conditions • Objectives/Measures • Performance Gap Assessment • Lifecycle Cost • Risk Analysis • Financial Plan • Investment Strategies

5. FHWA Asset Management Plan Pilot Project • Support three state DOTs developing their first TAMP • Develop TAMP Work Plan • Working with FHWA & MnDOT consultants Minnesota New York Louisiana

6. Asset Management Plan Scope Highway Assets • Pavement • Bridge • Drainage Structures • Guardrails • Traffic Signals • Signs • Overhead Sign Structures • Pavement Markings • ITS • Pedestrian Ramps • Lighting • Tower Lighting • Land • Rest Areas • Sidewalks • Retaining Walls • Tunnels • Noise Barrier • Fencing • Weigh Stations • ADA Infrastructure • Modal Infrastructure • Transit Vehicles

7. MnDOT’s TAMP Progress Asset inventory & condition collected for all four asset categories Life-cycle cost analysis complete Risk assessment complete • Workshop on November 15 to discuss mitigation strategies, costs, and risk impact Financial investment strategies & performance targets • Workshop on November 15 will also include discussion of financial plan elements

8. Life-Cycle Cost • Describe lifecycle costs & why they are important • Illustrate a typical deterioration model • Describe strategies for managing assets over their whole life • Contrast lifecycle costs for different strategies • Document the lifecycle cost of adding a new lane

9. Pavement LCCA Results

10. Risk Assessment • Working Groups Identified Risks • Impacts to Asset, Users, MnDOT • Consequence & Likelihood • Mitigation Strategies & Gaps • Workshop (9/20) Focus on “Undermanaged” Risks • Comparative Prioritization Exercise

11. Risk Results • Few Very High Risk areas • Top (Prioritized) Undermanaged Risks • Inability to appropriately manage culverts • Not meeting public expectations for local/corridor level pavement quality/condition • Tunnel and culvert failure or collapse • Premature deterioration of a bridge

12. MnDOT’sFlash Flood Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Pilot Project in NE & SE Minnesota

13. Project Background • Minnesota GO Vision & Statewide Multimodal Transportation Plan identified the risk of flash flooding as a result of changing precipitation patterns due to climate change. • From 1958 to 2011, the Midwest has seen 45% increase in very heavy precipitation (NOAA)

16. What happened?

17. Trunk Highway 210 East Park Entrance Jay Cooke

18. Hwy 2 and 35 Proctor (near Duluth)

19. Project Objectives • Better understand the trunk highway network’s risk from flash flooding • Identify cost-effect options to improve the network’s resiliency • Support the development of Minnesota’s first Transportation Asset Management Plan (TAMP) • Provide feedback to FHWA on the Draft Framework

20. Climate Change & Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Framework A guide for transportation agencies to assess vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events 3 key steps: • Define study assets and climate variables • Assess vulnerability • Incorporate results into decision making

21. Project Overview • General systems-level vulnerability assessmentof the trunk highway network in each district • Timeline: September 2013 – February/March 2014 • Inform and supplement TAMP risk assessment • Focused adaptation assessmentfor specific high-risk facilities identified in the system-level assessment • March 2014 – June/July 2014

22. Defining Vulnerability “Climate change vulnerability in the transportation context is a function of a transportation system’s exposure to climate effects, sensitivity to climate effects, and adaptivecapacity.” (Vulnerability Framework)

24. Linking TAMP Risk Results and Adaptability to Climate Change • Culvert Capacity Risk Mitigation Strategies: • Check culvert capacity during all capital improvement projects, upsize when needed, and stop practice of replacing in kind w/o analysis. • Identify future projects in advance to do hydraulic analysis, purchase ROW, and obtain permits. Shelf ready means incorporation of fixes in short timeframe.

25. Linking TAMP Risk Results and Adaptability to Climate Change • Culvert Failure/Collapse Risk Mitigation Strategies: • Develop & implement system condition performance measure for replacement or repair of poor and very poor culverts • Culverts in poor and very poor condition are prioritized and replaced in construction/maintenance projects

26. Key Dates for the TAMP December 2013 – Expected Federal Rulemaking for Asset Management April 2014 - Submittal of Draft TAMP to FHWA as part of pilot project October 2015 - MAP 21 Deadline for Federally Approved TAMP