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Patrick Carragher

Patrick Carragher. Coal Supplies and Clean Coal Technology. Global Coal Demand (Thermal). Billion Tonnes 1980 3.0 2002 4.8 2030 (est) 6-7. UK Coal Production (Underground). Million Tonnes 1955 211 1983 105 1993 43 2005 10.

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Patrick Carragher

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  1. Patrick Carragher Coal Supplies and Clean Coal Technology

  2. Global Coal Demand (Thermal) Billion Tonnes • 1980 3.0 • 2002 4.8 • 2030 (est) 6-7

  3. UK Coal Production (Underground) Million Tonnes • 1955 211 • 1983 105 • 1993 43 • 2005 10

  4. UK Coal Production (Opencast) Million Tonnes • 1983 14 • 1990 15.7 • 1996 16.6 • 2003 13.1 • 2005 10.2 • Decline due to presumption against

  5. Global Trade • Most coal production consumed locally • International coal traded in 2003 - 720 mt • Two main trading areas: Asia and Europe • Two trading types: thermal and coking • Main suppliers to international market: • Australia • Indonesia • South Africa

  6. Russia/Poland • Columbia/Venezuela

  7. Principal Suppliers to Europe • Russia • Australia • Poland • South Africa • Incremental production in Columbia will be taken by USA • Incremental production in Indonesia (and some extent Australia) will be taken by China/Pacific Rim

  8. UK Market 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Electricity Generation 50.9 47.7 52.5 50.5 52.2 Domestic 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.3 Industry 1.5 2.2 1.6 2.1 2.0 Coking 7.9 6.5 6.6 6.4 6.6 Total 64.2 58.7 62.3 60.7 62.1

  9. UK steam imports since 1999: mt

  10. Imports by supplier (%)

  11. Can deep-mined coal compete? • Costs = £1.41/GJ now, have been as low as the £1.20s and as high as the £1.50s • Delivered prices are £1.80-ish and UKC’s received price is £1.39/GJ • Quality is poor compared to imports (Sulphur) • A $2.00 Pound, or an import price collapse will spell trouble for the UK production • Would the generators stay with the indigenous for security?

  12. Port mt/yr Comments/stations Thamesside (power stations) >5.0 Only serving Kingsnorth and Tilbury Immingham 12-15 Serving Aire and Trent Valleys Hull 2.0 Serving Aire Valley, could expand Tees 1.0 Serving Aire Valley, down from 1.5mt Tyne/Blyth 1.5 Best for Alcan, Aire Valley interest Forth (Rosyth) 1.0 Serving Cockenzie and Longannet Hunterston 6.0 Serving Longannet, Kilroot & England Liverpool 3.5 Only Fiddlers and Rugeley Ellesmere Port <0.5 Mainly handling sized Port Talbot 1.0 Aberthaw or Didcot Newport <1.0 Aberthaw, Uskmouth or Midlands Bristol/Avonmouth 6.5 Aberthaw, Didcot and Rugeley Total 41-44 Certainly more if needed Is there room at the ports?

  13. Imports vs UK output: mt

  14. Imports: Conclusions • International market likely to remain tight • Russia to remain main UK supplier provided high price • No guarantee for indigenous UK coal production • But indigenous important bulwark against international supplied/price volatility • Opencast particularly vulnerable

  15. Clean Coal • Existing fleet 40 years old • Pulverised fuel (pf technology) • Environmental concerns of 1980s early 1990s acid rain • Hence Large Ccombustion Plant Directive

  16. Late ‘90s Environmental Focus on Carbon • EU Emissions Trading Scheme • National allocation plan • Current fleet 29 GW (opted in) 20.5 GW

  17. Opted in plant can run to 2016 possibly 2020 • Opted out plant must close by 2015

  18. New Technologies • IGCC and Advanced Supercritical (ASC) • Increase thermal efficiency • Prospect of further development

  19. Clean Coal Task Group • Reported in June and recommended retention of current generating capacity with new Clean Coal Technologies • However, Government assistance necessary on number of levels • Price of carbon critical • Market certainty for investment critical

  20. Current Projects IGCC and ASC • Power Fuel Hatfield - 800 MW • Killingholme E.ON - 1000 MW • Progressive Energy - Teeside (EOR?) - 800MW • Progressive Energy - Valleys Project 450 MW

  21. Supercritical • RWE Tilbury - 1000 MW • E.ON Kings North - 2X800 MW • Scottish and Southern - Ferrybridge - 500 MW

  22. Carbon Capture and Storage • All the above projects are CCS adaptable • Peterhead (gas) EOR project • Infrastructure essential for CCS • New financial instruments

  23. Conclusions • Much progress made • More to be done • Government and EU support essential

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